저자: Stas Talks Stocks · 외국인
요약 보기
이 영상은 금요일 시장 대폭락을 전하며, 나스닥이 고점 대비 약 9%가 빠져 조정장 영역에 근접했다고 설명합니다. 나스닥은 7월 저점에 가까워졌고, 최근 몇 주 사이 두 달간의 상승분이 대부분 사라졌다는 점이 강조됩니다. 반면 S&P500 ETF(VOO, SPY)는 고점 대비 약 3% 하락에 그쳐 상대적으로 충격이 작고, 기술주·AI 주식과 QQQ 기반 레버리지 ETF 보유자가 더 큰 타격을 받는다고 설명합니다. 유가도 브렌트유 배럴당 113달러, WTI 104달러 수준으로 올랐고, VIX는 20포인트까지 상승했습니다. 아마존은 매출 2,020억 달러(전년 대비 12% 증가)와 AWS 매출 39% 성장을 기록했지만, 최근 12개월 잉여현금흐름이 마이너스 424억 달러로 악화되었습니다. 설비투자 부담과 AI 투자 회수 시점에 대한 의문으로 주가가 발표 직후 급락했다고 전합니다. 인텔은 주가가 30% 하락했으며, 매출은 21% 증가했으나 분기 전망이 예상치를 밑돌아 약세로 평가됩니다. 샌디스크는 매출 110.3억 달러, 데이터센터 매출 급증, 8대1 주식분할 발표에도 불구하고 주가가 약세를 보였다고 소개합니다. 화자는 중간선거 이후 안도 랠리를 기대한다고 밝히며 주요 보유 종목을 팔지 않고 있다고 말합니다. 이 영상은 화자의 개인적 시장 전망과 대응을 담은 의견성 콘텐츠이며, 특정 종목의 매수·매도를 권유하지 않는 것으로 이해하는 것이 적절합니다. 또한 영상 말미에는 유료 멤버십과 Discord 커뮤니티 가입을 안내하는 내용이 포함되어 있습니다.
다듬은 글
So, it's a real carnage in the market today, guys. By the way, happy Friday to you. To your health. Thank you to everyone who joined. Every index is falling, and the Q's, of course, fell the most. They fell by almost 3.3%, while the Russell fell by 1.75%. SPY fell by about the same amount, and the Dow fell by 0.75%.
In addition, oil prices are rising. Both Brent and WTI added 2.5–3%. We see that Brent is currently worth $113 per barrel. WTI is around $104 per barrel. This is almost a new multi-month high, and the VIX index has soared 16%, my friends. It is now at 20 points and is also approaching a multi-month high.
We need to understand what is happening in the market, with charts and reports from Amazon , Intel, and SanDisk. And I'm sure you've seen it, especially Intel . Things are bad there now. So fasten your seatbelts, guys. Press the like button. Don't forget to subscribe. And again, take a sip of coffee.
To your health. Happy Friday. We need to talk. So, the Q's are barely holding on to the channel we plotted a few videos ago. They are barely holding on. We are overcoming last week's lows. Last Friday at Q's we reached somewhere between 700–702. We are now at 691. We are already down $70 from the high, which is about 9%, almost correction territory.
And we are very close to the July lows. Remember the LEO situation? We are practically back to those lows. Not quite. I mean, there's still a little way to go, but we're close. And all the gains over the last couple of months, literally from that low in late July-early August to early October , have almost disappeared.
You know, for the most part, we grew by 15% in 70 days, and now in two or three weeks all those gains are gone. This is the proverb you hear all the time. Stocks go up the stairs and down the elevator. Well, friends, it's happening right now. So, we are practically back to where we were at the end of July—beginning of August.
We are at multi-month lows, and the decline is accelerating. We are almost in correction territory for Q's. And right now SPY is trading, let's say, not bad, not as bad as QQQ, of course, but we're trading near the mid-September lows. So, not as bad as QQQ. But the SPY ETF is now down about 3% from its highs.
So, to be honest , it's not much at all. If you invest in S&P 500 ETFs, my friends, if you have VOO or SPY, you don't even feel this drop. It's nothing, right? In fact, only investors investing in the technology sector feel this. Especially those who are fully in AI stocks, in QQQ or in credit ETFs on QQQ, you feel it much more strongly if you have such assets.
But if you're in the S&P or Dow, it's not scary at all, dudes. You don't feel this sale at all. And sometimes I envy such people, because even though I buy ETFs for long-term savings, I have retirement accounts where I just put money in ETFs and don't think about it. Most of my money is invested in individual stocks, as many of you know, and I own some of these AI companies.
I'm a little diversified. You know, I'm not putting everything into AI, but I'm definitely feeling this sell-off, like many of us are right now. And you really need strong nerves for this. And we are learning this now. Although I've known this for a long time, I've been doing this for over 10 years.
So I know that you need to have the patience to pick individual stocks and hold them during such movements, but many are learning this for the first time right now. Welcome, welcome to the club, guys? So, let's talk about Amazon. Amazon reported earnings, and the stock is now almost in the black. That was a roller coaster, guys .
The price was 239. The reports came out, the shares fell to 214, they were simply crushed. Initially, they fell 12% from the closing price. That is, this is madness. Just madness. And I still hold those call options, friends. I'm in the red on these options, obviously. I probably shouldn't have bought them.
I went against common sense. One of my rules is to never trade on reports. And I don't know why I did it. I sometimes do this once or twice a year. I go against common sense and sometimes get burned, but it's not that bad. I mean, I took call options at 255 with an expiration date of November 20th. It's not great or good, but it's not terrible either.
You know, I could buy options that expire today. Then I would be hooked, right? So there's still a chance to recoup some of my losses. Maybe we can even make a profit if we grow next week or after the midterm elections. Maybe so? Apparently, this is just wishful thinking . But in any case, Amazon weathered the downturn well.
We survived that initial shock sale. We are now back to 240. I don't think the price will pull back much. We are unlikely to lose a significant portion of what we have gained. I don't think Amazon should be in the 200, 210, 220 range right now, but who knows? Maybe next week things will get worse and we'll go back there.
In that case, my options will be in serious trouble. After all, it's a small deal. I didn't invest a lot of money in this position. But Amazon reported pretty good numbers, right? Revenue 202 billion. This is 12% more than last year. Last year they made 180 billion. So, 202 billion versus 180 billion last year.
AWS revenue was $46 billion, up 39%. I expected the growth to be 40%. Very close. This exceeded forecasts and is the fastest growth in almost 5 years. Revenue in North America was $112.9 billion, up 6%. International revenue increased by 5% to 43.1 billion. Operating profit was 28.1 billion , which is approximately 60% more than last year's 17.44 billion.
Let's see, the operating margin was almost 14%. At this point, their net profit has dipped slightly compared to last year. Free cash flow over the past 12 months is negative—$42.4 billion versus positive $14.8 billion a year earlier. It's clear that free cash flow is under pressure. We all know about it.
Capital expenditures, that's it. The same with Google. Um, and at the moment investors are still concerned, of course, about the huge costs, um, costs of AI, right? Pressure on free cash flow. Obviously, we see that heavy capital expenditures are now putting pressure on the company's cash generation.
It was like that before. Um, and despite the incredible growth in AWS that we've seen, almost 40%, the expectations for profitability and costs have been extremely high, you know, and the market is clearly not rewarding any of these stocks right now . And again I went against my own common sense by buying call options.
Um, you know , I thought there could potentially be a positive reaction here. What was I even thinking, huh? Quite, quite a ridiculous idea . But anyway, um, investors are questioning how quickly Amazon will be able to turn around these infrastructure investments, these huge investments in AI . You know, when are they going to, you know, turn that into additional free cash flow?
And the market wants answers now. You know, we know, I think many of us understand that this investment will pay off, but the market wants answers now. And it's just too unknown. There's a lot of FUD right now: fear, uncertainty, and, um, doubt. And it's just, man, these actions are just crushing. Even though we know there's a good chance they'll make money in two or three years , even in a year, people just don't buy it, man.
And, you know, at this point I'm close to adding some Amazon stock back in . And you know I sold a significant portion of my position last time they reported and the stock took off. I might start buying stocks again, especially if next week we start sliding, as I said, back to 220, 225. I'll start adding more.
Um, so this is a quick Amazon review. Crazy negative free cash flow. AWS is cool, but the market doesn't care. They're more focused on um negative free cash flow. Now let's talk about Intel. Intel, my god, man. Intel is getting crushed, down 30%, and we are practically invincible in these um descending triangle predictions.
You know, it had a descending triangle before the reports, and now it's fully realized. We first pointed this out with the example of Lam Research, right? We saw that descending triangle that worked. We pointed this out again with Google, you know, it came true to a large extent. What an accurate prediction about the descending triangle on Google, man.
By the way, it is completely collapsing. It's currently at level 278. We'll leave that for another video . Um, I haven't bought more Google yet. I bought a few for 290. I haven't bought any more yet. I'll wait until next week and see what happens. But man, we are invincible in these forecasts, on these charts.
Um, Intel shares fell 30%. Incredible. You know, almost all the profit from $40 to $140 is already gone. Now we're back to 64. Most of that profit is gone. Um, you know, of course, not all of it, but if you bought anywhere here, you're in trouble now. So, Intel has reported, let's take a look at these numbers, guys.
Uh , let's see. Revenue 16.5 billion. This is 21% more year-on-year, compared to 13.7 last year. GAAP EPS 60 cents, adjusted EPS 52 cents, GAAP gross margin 43%, up from last year's 38.2%. Pretty good. They forecast revenue for the 4th quarter of 15-16 billion. Wall Street expected 17 billion. So, this is a kind of alarm signal.
Um, the GAAP EPS forecast was 10 cents. Unadjusted EPS forecast—25 cents. So let's face the truth about the predictions. They were bad, you know, way below estimates, and that's going to hit stocks hard in this market. Funny, right? When companies make phenomenal forecasts in this market with this kind of sentiment , stocks don't move, right?
We see this in the example of SanDisk and other companies: they can give good forecasts, but the shares do not grow. But if they report bad forecasts, oh boy, the stock goes down. And they fall very hard. Minus 30% for Intel, right? And now there is weakness in the PC market. Management expects the slowdown in the PC market to continue at least until the first half of 2027.
Intel is also struggling to establish sufficient supply to meet the extraordinary demand for Xeon server processors . And there are concerns about profitability. Investors are now worried that weaker sales and ongoing investments could put further pressure on margins. This is where we are now. This is where we are now.
And the neighborhood itself wasn't that terrible. That is, they grew by 21%, the margin improved. Demand for data centers was high, but the forecast, again, was weak, so it is being punished and the stock is oversold. I don't buy them. I have to be honest. I don't buy them. Um, the market is oversold, so maybe there will be a short-term rebound, but I don't think anything will happen here until the midterm elections, and until we get more clarity on the conflict in the Middle East, in general, what's going on there .
I still believe that after the election we will see growth, but we may have to wait a week or ten days before we recover and see such a relief rally. You know, it might take a little longer . This can't just happen on Monday. It would be nice if it were, but now I doubt it. So, this is Intel. She is being pressured a lot.
SanDisk is another company that is, ahem , just being trashed right now. Minus 12%. Although the schedule looks good. I mean, Intel looks bad from a graphics perspective. It looks terrible. But SanDisk , to be honest, doesn't look so bad. If you look here, we are still within the wedge. We are still well above the lows of late July.
At the end of July , guys, we reached a thousand dollars. I mean, the stock fell from 2,300 at the end of June to 1,000 by the end of July. In a month , just a month, she lost 60%. And we still look good on the chart. Not great, not good, but not bad, right? I'll start to worry if we go below $1,000.
If we break the $1,000 mark, it will be very bad. If we break the July lows, it will be very bad. But given that they showed good results, let's analyze these numbers. They announced an 8-for-1 stock split , I think that bodes well for the stock price in the coming weeks. Although you know that splits do not change the value of the company.
We all know this. But on paper they look cheaper. And maybe more retail investors will want to buy them. The key word is " possible." We don't know for sure. SanDisk reported revenue of $11.03 billion . This is almost 380% more than last year. This exceeded the forecast by about 10.7 billion. Earnings per share were $49.50, guys.
This is better than the expected approximately $46 . So, they exceeded expectations. Adjusted gross margin was 85%, compared to almost 30% last year. Data center revenue was $4.8 billion. This is an increase of 1600, almost 1700% year-on-year . Um, consumer income was 400 million, a drop of almost 39%.
But it is obvious that the main thing is income from data centers. Um, edge computing revenue was 5.8 billion. This is a 320% year-on-year increase. And the forecast, guys: 12 billion, or rather 12.2 to 12.6 billion in revenue for the next quarter with adjusted earnings per share of $55 to $57, um, with gross margin of 84.4 to 85.4% , and they announced an 8-for-1 stock split that is set to begin trading on November 30th.
So again, this makes the stock cheaper, so to speak, on paper. But fundamentally it doesn't change anything. This does not change the value of the company. Um, it's just stock price manipulation. The number of shares outstanding. You guys know that. Um, and yes, it might attract more buyers. People who want to implement options strategies, maybe sell call options or do something else.
They can buy lots of 100 shares, now that the price per share is lower. You know, it could happen. And why is SanDisk being sold off, ma'am? Again, this is the kind of market. The company can demonstrate stunning results. The prognosis can be phenomenal. And stocks are still falling. This is the kind of market we are in.
Um, you know, in the end, Edge revenue didn't meet expectations, even though it grew a lot. It fell short of the forecast of 6.07 billion. Consumer income also turned out to be lower than expected. Hmm, although the data centers worked well. But overall, it's not about the numbers, man. It's not about the numbers.
It's about the sentiment and weakness of the sector as a whole, as well as fears that these businesses will soon reach the peak of their profits, or perhaps they have already reached it. You know, cyclical issues—that's what's pushing these stocks down, and I just don't see it ending in the coming days or even weeks.
Again, I still think we'll get a relief rally after the midterm elections. But it might not happen until the second half of November, you know, maybe December, and that's if the rally happens at all. People think we will be down by the end of the year. There are many bearish predictions that many have been hit hard on these AI stocks over the past couple of months and they may simply be selling them to optimize tax losses, pushing prices even further down by the end of the year .
This can happen. This is one option, but a rather pessimistic one. But you know, I still prefer to look at things more optimistically. And I think we, you know, we're very depressed. We were very pressed. And I think there is a chance for a decent market recovery. But again , that could happen in the second half of November, after the midterm elections, when we get more clarity on Iran.
You know, there's a conflict there. And maybe this is just wishful thinking, but that's what I'm leaning towards. And I'm not selling any of my stock, guys. You know, I'm still in the black on a lot of positions, obviously because I've held them for years . But with recent purchases, such as SanDisk or Nebias, I'm now in the red.
But for now, I'm just holding on tight. In fact, there is no need to panic sell right now. I don't need this money. You know, the money I invest I won't need next month, right? I don't need to live off this portfolio . You know, I'm not spending money from the different accounts I have right now. Sure, I could cash out, take the profits, and, you know, pay the bills, but I'm lucky that I can survive and feed my family thanks to all the content I create, right?
And everything I do online, believe it or not. I've mentioned this before and I'll say it again. So my trading funds just stay in the portfolios. They multiply. And so, you know, I could have cashed out, done this or that, but I was able to grow my audience now from, well, 500 thousand to a million.
How many of us are there in total? And for a financial page, with our millions of views per month, it actually brings in quite a bit of revenue. People don't think you can make decent money doing this, but it's possible, especially in the financial niche, or whatever you want to call it. So yes, I'm lucky to be in a position where I don't have to sell anything and use that money, and I'm, again, a firm believer that money should be left in investments for the long term.
If you buy stocks, then if you don't trade them, you should let them grow. That's my opinion. So yes. I hope you enjoyed the video. Be sure to join Patreon if you want to follow portfolio updates. Become part of the closed Discord where we weather the storm together. And if you want to see what's going on there, the link is in the comments below or on the stocksurfest.comreon website . It's in the profile bio. You know where to find the link. See you there.
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