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again I said it last week I'll go out on a limb and predict my equivalent November fall predictions last fall it was at the markets were going to poop the bed my prediction now is that I think the markets are bothering me and consolidating yep 100 and this is the time I think to start nibbling and start getting ready to really rip the money in and I think there's enough signals every day that kind of like tell me at least that on the margin it's time because I think the markets do a reasonably good job of digesting news and then pricing the forward reality right like today's price is really everything we already know and so the real guess is what's about to happen in the future I'm actually pretty starting to get a little constructive here I think that the Investments that one makes in this period will probably be the best for many many years to come because they'll have the most asymmetric upside and that was true in 2008 and 9 and 10.
it was true in you know 2002 three and four you I mean you're talking incredible companies just in those two periods think about this atlassian Tesla Uber Google Airbnb Uber Instagram WhatsApp incredible businesses that have created tremendous value and so there are businesses that have been invested in for the first time in 2022 and will be invested in for the first time in 2023 and 24 which will be the leading winners of this next phase and this next leg up and so the real opportunity is to find out who those companies are and get behind them and here's what what we've seen is that the stock market has a tendency to immediately go to the conclusion very early on in a rate hiking cycle and now why is that important for normal folks listening to this thing well the reason why that's important is right now we're in month seven of a cycle we obviously don't know how long it's going to be but the odds are improving every day that we're near the end versus the beginning because again if you're thinking about when to you know buy equities for example this is a really instructive guide because what it tells you is the closer we get to the end or more importantly the closer we psychologically know that the end is coming we start buying and that and that's just a broad-based statement that has been true so you know what you see right now I think is really interesting which is that despite all the bad information oh my gosh the nordstream pipeline blew up could it have been sabotage was it the CIA was it the Russians oh my gosh big Tech is slowing spending and firing people China's in a coup I don't know if you saw that rumor yeah how about something more benign you know the the US you know us yuan is really trading in a crazy way the U.S euro is trading in a crazy way the U.S pound is going crazy despite all of that every time we trade down the market consolidates very quickly so I think we're forming a bottom I do think that Stan is right we are going to see a hard Landing recession something will break in 2023.
I hope it doesn't I hope it doesn't affect a lot of normal people but it's likely but at the same time to find hard Landing so I'll tell you in a second but at the same time I think what's happening is in the equity and financial markets we are consolidating a bottom because we're seeing through to that end state and this is where cheap Equity gets bought so why is there a reason to sell now I think a lot of the people that are selling the smart money sellers that I talk to are essentially right now selling to book in capital losses to offset other capital gains from this year a term that's called tax loss harvesting and so if you have gains through this year which some of us do this is the great moment to just sell the losers to book the loss to net it out so that you can minimize your taxes for next year that's probably I think where we are at and I think that's why they're still Consolidated by you're going to see unemployment get to an awkward and uncomfortable number five six percent I think could be something that we see and I think you're going to see a lot more companies pull way back on their spend because demand is going to really modulate
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