저자: TonyEdward · 외국인
요약 보기
진행자는 짐 크레이머의 비트코인 비관론을 역지표로 보고 비트코인 과매도와 MACD 약세 소진을 근거로 반등을 예상한다. S&P500·나스닥 RSI가 중립대를 벗어나 바닥이 가깝다고 주장하며, 비트코인을 '시장의 카나리아'로 본다. BlackRock·Fidelity의 ETF 독점 구조와 CLARITY법 통과 시 자금 유입 기대를 강조한다. 기관의 크립토 상품(CME-나스닥 지수, Mastercard·Ripple 에이전트 결제, WSOP Solana 결제) 확대를 긍정적으로 소개한다. 다만 명확한 기간 명시 없이 '곧 반등'을 말하며, 대부분 홍보성 채널 광고가 섞여 있다.
다듬은 글
Hey everyone, welcome into the Thinking Crypto Podcast, your home for cryptocurrency news and interviews. I'm your host, Tony Edward. On your way in, please hit that subscribe button as well as the thumbs up button and leave a comment below. If you're listening on a podcast platform such as Spotify or Apple, please be sure to follow and leave a five-star rating.
Well, folks, Jim Cramer continues his campaign of bashing Bitcoin and crypto, saying bearish things. And we know, we have the inverse Cramer. We've seen it time and time again. You do the opposite of this man. When he's bullish, that's the time you want to be cautious. When he's bearish, that's the time you want to be bullish.
So he tweeted out today, Bitcoin and gold, bad money being liquidated for SpaceX. So he's hyping up the SpaceX IPO. He also stated Apple and Nvidia, good money being liquidated. But folks, he recently said, Bitcoin was murdered by Michael Saylor and strategy and all types of hyperbole and outlandish statements.
Now, we've been talking about how this aligns with what's happening on the charts with Bitcoin being extremely oversold. I mean, it is so bloody out there and I'm anticipating a reversal and a nice relief rally. I'm not saying it's a move to new all-time highs, but this is a good opportunity to swing trade and I've been buying the dip.
I'm buying Bitcoin and some altcoins. So things are looking bullish on the horizon. I'm not saying we're gonna pump tomorrow or next week. We have to let the market play out. It has to go through its cyclical patterns here. And even the MACD on the daily chart for Bitcoin shows the bears are losing momentum.
So sellers are getting exhausted and we're gonna see a reversal sooner than later, but it's really, really bloody out there, guys. And the Bitcoin weekly chart, it still shows the bulls are in control. So it's hanging by a thread here. So hopefully we start moving up. We can close the week strong and this weekly chart can start looking a bit more bullish.
One of the other factors I've been highlighting to you guys is that the Bitcoin MVRV shows long-term and short-term, the short-term being 30 days, long-term being 100 days. There, these traders are underwater and it's levels that we saw back in February that preceded the big rally, the big relief rally that we saw.
So that's why I am looking at these metrics, the data now by the textbook and anticipating a rally. Plus you have these macro signals with Jim Cramer putting it out in the mainstream, right? He's helping to put fear in the market and getting the herd fearful and people to second guess crypto and Bitcoin and thinking, oh, it's dead and they walk away.
And then what happens? The market does the opposite of the herd, right? It's the same story over and over. And this happens on the bullish side as well. When things get too overheated, Bitcoin becomes overbought. And, you know, Cramer's out there saying, you know, Bitcoin is gonna outperform everything.
Then all of a sudden it reverses. This is how the market makers and the smart money play retail. But this is where you have to be financially educated. So you are not part of that herd that's getting played. You want to be on the side of smart money. So this is where things are so bloody out there. People are giving up, lots of fear.
Jim Cramer is telling you on social media and on TV, this is dead. And that's why I am turning very bullish. Now, when it comes to the stock market, you know, we've been looking at what's happening in the stock markets. Again, an idea of what may be coming next for crypto. Well, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ are both past the neutral zones on their RSI.
So why is that important? That means we are approaching a bottom soon, right? It could be that the S&P 500 is gonna go down to the oversold levels and then we bounce. So, you know, Bitcoin, again, could act like the canary in a coal mine because I think market makers look at the larger markets like the stock market, you know, in how they plan things out and how they set things up.
So this is a good sign, right? That the stock market will, I think, find some sort of bottom sooner than later. And again, when the stock market is doing well, that bodes well for the crypto market. So this is something to pay attention to. Now, we've got some interesting news here. BlackRock and Fidelity are quietly turning Bitcoin ETFs into a two firm market.
So this is interesting. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust and Fidelity is wise origin Bitcoin fund, now dominate the US spot Bitcoin ETFs, regularly capturing the majority of the new inflows. Now, I think we know this, right? I've often shared BlackRock's numbers. They have the largest ETF, obviously the fastest growing one.
And look, these ETFs are gonna be kind of living entities. There's gonna be inflows and outflows. But what you wanna see is that the larger trend, when you zoom out on the one or two year chart, that the overall trend is the growth, right? Despite the ebbs and flows on the shorter timeframes, and we've been seeing that.
So despite a roughly 29% year to day decline in Bitcoin and waves of ETF redemptions, Ibit and FBTC have often acted as stabilizing forces, attracting capital even when rivals see outflows. The market is shifting toward a winner take most structure in which scale, liquidity and distribution networks favor BlackRock and Fidelity, leaving smaller issuers with minimal influence on overall flows.
Now, of course, the competition's happening on Wall Street and that's very bullish for the future of the asset class. And they're all trying to attract more capital and inflows. And I think once crypto legislations pass the Clarity Act, all of these on-ramps being set up will attract more capital. So I think we're still relatively early, compared to other asset classes.
And once we have legislation, it's gonna unlock waves of capital to come into the market. So I'm excited for when we get back into the bull phase and when the Clarity Act passes. Now, we continue to see TradFi institutions are building a lot of different crypto products for not only Bitcoin, but for altcoins.
So the CME Group launches crypto index features jointly developed with NASDAQ. So you got stock exchanges involved, tracking the top eight cryptocurrencies by market cap, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, Link and Cardano, ADA. So I have all those in my portfolio. I am diversified. So that's very good.
These are certainly the top coins that have been around for a long time, have a lot going on in their ecosystems, lots of liquidity, have ETFs and more. And folks, a great place where you can buy Bitcoin and all these altcoins is on ITRIS Capital. And you can also get exposure to precious metals like gold and silver.
So ITRIS Capital allows you to invest in crypto as well as precious metals in an IRA. And you may say, well, Tony, why do I need an IRA to do this? Well, tax benefits and advantages. So you can buy sell trade within this IRA and you don't have to pay long-term or short-term capital gains taxes. So if you have a long-term view on crypto, you have a long-term view on precious metals like gold and silver, you can set this up and it could be part of your strategy.
You have a normal exchange account, but you also have the IRA to shield maybe some of your bigger trades from the taxes. And you can buy and sell and trade both crypto and digital assets 24 seven. It's low cost, no monthly fees. And folks with the crypto, you get Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, even new tokens they list.
So they have over 90 crypto assets as well as stable coins like CIRCL, USDC, as well as stable coins like CIRCL, USDC, Ripple, RL, USD and there's also staking on the platform. And with the gold and silver product, it is not paper gold and silver. So it's not what most platforms offer. This is the physical asset.
So if you wanna redeem it at any time, you can do so. And the actual gold and silver is, it's stored with a bank, as far as custody. So really great option here guys, you gotta think about this. And they also offer a great custodial product called premium custody account. So they use Coinbase Prime and other big institutions to custody your assets.
So BlackRock uses Coinbase Prime. So you're getting tier one level institutional custody here. You can again, buy and sell 24 seven. It's a closed loop systems. If anyone hacks into your account, they can't withdraw anything because the account only allows you to withdraw to your bank account that's attached to the account.
So there's no one can pull your funds out and it's low fee. So great options here. And I think the IRA is something you definitely gotta pay attention to because of the tax benefits. And folks, if you have an existing 401k or IRA, you can roll it over to itrust capitals version. So you gotta check them out, go to itrustcapital.com slash go slash thinking crypto.
If you sign up at my link, you can get a hundred dollar funding bonus. So check it out, see if it's right for you. Again, link will be in the description. Folks, we continue to see major credit card companies embrace crypto and build with blockchain technology and MasterCard has been on a tear lately.
So here's their latest endeavor. MasterCard has launched a payment system designed for AI agents to transact autonomously with Coinbase, Ripple, Solana and Polygon among 30 plus partners already signed on. This is incredible. Look at a credit card company, MasterCard. Some of you probably have credit cards from MasterCard and even their competitor Visa is doing things like this.
So it is amazing what is happening guys, to see these big names, legacy names. And again, some of you work with the banks and these credit card companies and look at what they're doing with crypto. I often say this, share this news with the skeptics. Those who say this is a scam block, they don't understand blockchain.
They think it's just fake internet money. They haven't educated themselves. This is news you gotta share with them. Like, hey, do you have a MasterCard credit card? Yeah, well, look at what they're doing with the blockchain and stable coin and crypto technology. You gotta share this with them guys. It's incredible what's being built.
And we've been seeing a lot of the AI agent infrastructure being set because AI agents are gonna be part of the economy and many of us will have AI agents doing things on behalf of us. And they're gonna have crypto wallets and being powered by stable coins and much more. So incredible what's being built.
Now, Ripple launches a developer toolkit for building agentic payments apps on the XRP ledger with support for autonomous AI transactions with XRP and their stable coin RLUSD. So similar to what MasterCard is doing, Ripple is building their own native stuff. Now, I recently interviewed the head of the engineering at RippleX, which is working on the XRP ledger.
So that interview should be published by next week, I would say. So stay tuned for that guys. We went through all the cool things that are being built on the XRP ledger. Now, here's some interesting news around Solana. The World Series of Poker is accepting Solana payments for tournament buy-ins starting this year in Las Vegas with stable coin payouts rolling out at WSOP Paradise and the Bahamas this December.
Folks, whether you love gambling or you don't, you love poker, you don't, doesn't matter. This is real world adoption. And we are gonna see this technology be embraced by many different industries. So I'm not a big poker player or whatever, but this is amazing guys. We were just seeing just incredible, incredible adoption.
And I know the price doesn't reflect that right now. We are in a bear market, but markets are cyclical. We will be out of the bear market. We'll be back in the bull market. People are gonna forget the pain of the bear market. It's the same cyclical thing that happens all the time. Now, privacy returns to focus as Ethereum developers explore new token standards.
So there's been a lot of controversy around Ethereum with some developers leaving the Ethereum Foundation and a lot of negative news and much more. But I still think Ethereum is here to stay. It's kind of the number one blockchain that gets adoption by institutions before they go to other blockchains.
So Ethereum is still that go-to blockchain for kicking things off. So it talks about the need for privacy tools and the scrutiny that's been around them such as tornado cash, right? And huge controversy there. But a new Ethereum proposal and a growing number of privacy -focused products suggest the topic is making a comeback.
The latest example is PERC20, a proposed Ethereum token standard that would allow users to hold and transfer tokens without publicly revealing their balances, transaction amounts, or counterparties. The proposal has sparked renewed discussion around whether public blockchains could... should expose every financial interaction by default.
So every blockchain project right now is building out their privacy layers, components, and features because institutions are adopting these blockchains. And we all know institutions that don't wanna put everything out there on these public chains, they need to protect data. There are of course privacy laws and much more, right?
So these blockchains have to cater to that. So I think we're gonna see all chains are gonna have some sort of privacy feature. This is a must, they must have it if they want institutional adoption. Moving ahead, Bitso, they have launched a stable coin, the Mexican peso stable coin MXNB, and they have launched it on base.
So that's Coinbase's Ethereum layer two. So incredible, we are seeing the development of stable coins across the globe on public chains, guys. So just amazing what's happening. It looks like it's gonna be part of Aerogome, basis leading decentralized exchange. So we're gonna see a lot of firms launch their own stable coins.
I think over time there will be consolidation, but the innovations here and due to the Genius Act being passed into law. Now speaking of stable coins, Natomi CEO says $5 trillion AI customer experience market could boost stable coin demand. So again, we're seeing the AI theme, the AI agent, agentic economy, all of these things are being set up.
And again, these things are gonna use stable coins. So Natomi CEO Punit Mehta predicts the customer experience market will expand from about $500 billion today to $5 trillion by 2030 as AI moves deeper into sales, conversion and upselling. Mehta argues that AI and crypto are complimentary saying autonomous AI agents will need 24 seven blockchain based payment rails and stable coins rather than traditional banking systems to handle real time transactions.
Mehta whose company recently raised $110 million in a series C round back by Accenture Ventures and Adobe Ventures argues that the rise of artificial intelligence and crypto should be viewed as complimentary trends rather than competing sectors. He's absolutely right. Now when it comes to speculative markets, I would say there has been a lot of capital that has not made it into crypto this past bull market cycle because a lot of it did go to AI as well as gold and silver which were ripping.
So I think crypto didn't get a lot of liquidity. That was part of why the bull market was a bit lackluster in addition to look, I think meme coins really hurt the market too because they sucked up a lot of liquidity. So you didn't see solid altcoins get a lot of liquidity and then the president himself launched a meme coin and his wife launched a meme coin and those really, really were big distractions.
So let's hope there's no more meme coins come the next bull market guys cause that will really suck. Now final news item, Anchorage backs treasury's genius AML rules seeks secondary market sanctions clarity. So Anchorage digital, a federally chartered crypto bank and stable coin infrastructure provider has submitted a public comment letter supporting the US treasury department's proposed anti money laundering and sanctions framework for the genius act arguing that rules largely strike the right balance between compliance and innovation.
In a letter published Wednesday, Anchorage said the proposed framework appropriately places AML obligations on regulated stable coin issuers while urging treasury to clarify secondary market sanctions liability enterprise wide AML programs and correspondent account requirements. Specifically Anchorage argued that issuers should not face strict liability for failing to independently identify sanctioned users who transact on secondary markets through their smart contracts.
So I think that makes sense. Especially, you know, when you have DeFi you got to really go after the bad actors. You can't penalize, you know some of the platforms that are they don't really control the transactions that they may be there but it's a decentralized, you know, system. And I actually recently interviewed the CEO of Anchorage digital that I interviewed should be published soon maybe next week.
So stay tuned for that. They're doing some amazing things. Folks, that's the news. Let me know what you think. Leave your thoughts and comments below. Hit the thumbs up button, subscribe if you haven't as yet. Please support the podcast by subscribing to my free email newsletter on Substack. It's a hundred percent free.
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So go to mycryptocourse.com to learn more. All the links will be in the description. Folks, thank you so much for tuning in. I appreciate you all and I'll talk to you all later.
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