저자: WarrenBuffett · 외국인
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워런 버핏의 '미스터 마켓' 비유 강연으로, 주식은 매분 가격이 움직인다는 이유로 매일 가격에 신경 쓰는 것은 어리석은 태도라는 주장이다. 핵심 비유: 같은 160에이커 농지를 가진 이웃이 매일 땅을 사거나 팔겠다고 가격을 제시하는 상황을 상상하라. 주식시장은 이런 '매일 가격을 부르는 이웃'이며, 그 가격에 따라 팔 의무는 없다. 가치의 근거: 그레이엄(1949년)에게 배운 것처럼 주식은 사업의 일부이므로, 농지의 생산량을 보듯 기업이 창출하는 사업 가치를 보아야 한다. 가격 예측의 한계: 매일 가격을 맞추겠다는 예측 판매자와 조언자들은 대개 돈을 버는 쪽이며, 그들에게 돈을 지불할 필요는 없다. 권장 전략: 대부분의 사람에게 가장 좋은 방법은 S&P500 인덱스펀드를 사서 잊는 것이다. 개별 종목 선택은 소수에게만 적합하다. 레버리지 경계: 간섭(하락장)을 피할 수 없으므로 레버리지를 쓰거나 심리적으로 버틸 수 없는 상태에 놓이지 말아야 한다. 장기 낙관: 미국에 장기 투자하고 주식을 보유하는 것이 국채보다 훨씬 낫다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 예측 발언은 없다.
다듬은 글
people bring the attitude to them too often that because they are liquid and quoted minute by minute that it's an important that you develop an opinion on them minute by minute now that's really foolish when you think about it and that's something graham taught me in 1949 i mean that single thought stocks were parts of businesses and not just little things that moved around on charts or charts were very popular in those days and whatever it may be imagine for a moment that you decided to invest money now and you bought a farm and the farmland around here uh let's say you bought 160 acres and you bought it at x per share per acre and the farmer next you had 160 identical acres same contour you know same same quality of soil quality so it was it was identical and that farmer next door to you uh was a very peculiar character because every day that farmer with the identical farm said i'll sell you my farm or i'll buy your farm at a certain price which he would name now that's a very obliging neighbor i mean that's got to be a plus to have a fellow like that with the next farm uh you don't get that with farms you get it with stocks you want a 100 shares of general motors on monday morning somebody will buy your 100 shares or sell you another 100 shares at exactly the same price and that goes on you know five days a week but just imagine if you had a farmer doing that when you bought the farm you looked to what the farm would produce that was what went through your mind you were saying to yourself i'm paying x dollars per acre i think i'll get so many bushels of corn or soybeans on average some years good some years bad some years the price will be good some years the price will be bad etc but you think about the potential of the farm and now you get this idiot that uh buys a farm next to you and and on top of that he's sort of a manic depressive and drinks maybe smokes a little pot so his numbers just go all over the place uh now the only thing you have to do is to remember that this guy next door is there to serve you and not to instruct you you bought the form because you thought the farm was uh had the potential you don't really need a quote on it uh you know if you bought in with johnny rockefeller or andrew carnegie there were never any qu well there were quotes later on but but basically uh you bought into the business and that's what you're doing when you buy stocks but you get this added advantage that you do have this neighbor who you're not obliged to listen to at all who is going to give you a price every day and he's going to have his ups and downs and maybe he'll name a selling price that he'll buy it in which case you sell if you want to uh or maybe he'll name a very low price and you'll buy his farm from him but you don't have to and you don't want to put yourself in a position where you have to so stocks have this enormous inherent advantage of people yelling out prices all the time to you and many people turn that into a disadvantage and of course many people can profit in one way or another from telling telling you that they can tell you what this farmer is going to yell out tomorrow or next your neighboring farmer is going to be on tomorrow or next week or next month there's huge money in it so people tell you that it's important and they know and that you should pay a lot of attention to their thoughts about what price changes should be or you tell yourself that there should be this great difference but the truth is if you owned the businesses you liked prior to the virus arriving it changes prices and it changes but nobody's forcing you to sell and if you really like the business and you like the management you're in with and the business hasn't fundamentally changed and i'll get to that a little when i report on berkshire uh which i will assume i promise uh the uh stocks have an enormous advantage and you still can bet on america but you can't that unless you're willing and have an outlook uh to independently decide that you want to own a cross section of america because i don't think most people are in a position to pick single stocks uh a few maybe but but on balance i think people are much better off buying a cross-section america and just forgetting about it if you'd done that if i'd done that when i got out of college it's all i had to do to make 100 for one and collect dividends on top of it uh which increased would increase substantially over time the american tailwind is marvelous american business representatives and it's going to have interruptions and you're not going to foresee the interruptions and you do not want to get yourself in a position where those interruptions can can't affect you either because you're leveraged or because you're psychologically unable to handle uh looking at a bunch of numbers if if you really had a farm and you had this neighbor and one day he offered you two thousand dollars an acre and the next day he offers you twelve hundred dollars an acre and maybe the day after that he offers you eight hundred dollars an acre are you really going to feel that at two thousand dollars an acre when you had evaluated what the farm would produce are you gonna let this guy drive you into thinking i better sell because his number keeps coming in lower all the time it uh it's a very very very important uh matter to bring the right psychological approach to owning common stocks but i will tell you if you bet on america and sustain that position for decades you're going to do better than then in my view far better than owning treasury securities or far better than following people who tell you that what the farmer's going to yell out next uh there's huge amounts of money that people pay for advice they really don't need and for advice for the person giving it can can be very well meaning in it and believe their own uh line but the truth is that that you can't have you can't deliver superior results to everybody by just having them trade around a business if you've gone into uh a business that's going to deliver what the business produces and and the idea that you're gonna outsmart the person next to you or the person advising you can outsmart the next the person sitting next to you is is uh well it's really the wrong approach so uh find businesses get a cross-section in my view for most people the best thing to do is still on the s p 500 index fund people will try and sell you other things because there's more money in it for them if they do and i'm not saying that that's a conscious act on their part most most good sales people believe their own baloney i mean that's part of being a good salesperson and i'm sure i've done plenty of that in my life too but it's it's very human if you keep repeating something often if that's why lawyers get have the witnesses keep saying things over and over again that uh by the time they get on the witness stand though they'll uh they'll believe it whether it was true in the first place or not but d hey uh you are dealing with something fundamentally advantageous in my view and owning common socks i will bet on america the rest of my life
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