Howard Marks: How can an investor with small amounts of capital achieve superior returns?

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버핏이 소액 자본이라면 연 50% 수익도 가능하다고 한 발언에 대해, 현재 환경에서 그런 수익은 어렵다는 취지의 논의. 한 줄 결론: 소액 투자자에게 유리한 틈새는 있지만, 초과수익은 기술과 경쟁력 없이는 얻기 어렵다. 금리 환경과 주식 기대수익: 과거 연방기금금리가 약 4%, 5년물 국채 약 6%였을 때는 주식이 10~12% 이상 기대수익을 줘야 채권과 경쟁할 수 있었다. 제로금리·국채 1~2% 환경에서는 주식 기대수익 6%만 돼도 좋다고 여기게 되어 가격이 올랐고, 이것이 최근 14개월간 주식시장 상승을 설명한다. 이 때문에 높은 수익률 확보가 매우 어려워졌다. 소액 자본의 이점: 자본이 적을수록 대형 기관이 신경 쓰지 않는 작은 기회를 활용할 수 있다. 시장에서 사람들이 피하는 영역은 그 영역에 들어가는 사람에게 유리하게 작용한다. 효율적 시장과 비효율성: 완벽히 효율적인 시장에서는 모든 가격이 공정하다. 그러나 실제로는 잘못된 가격(실수, 싼 가격의 기회)이 존재할 수 있다. 이런 비효율의 원인은 무지, 무관심, 편향이다. 남들이 알면 기회는 사라진다. 투자자 편향의 예: 모두가 '좋은 주식은 가격 불문 매수'라고 하면 우량주 수익률은 떨어진다. 'B등급 채권은 절대 안 산다'는 분위기에서는 위험 대비 수익이 높은 채권이 저평가될 수 있다. 규모의 역설: 사람들이 '기업이 너무 작다'는 이유로 외면하는 경우가 많다. 좋은 기업이나 성장성, 적정 가격 여부가 아니라 규모만으로 배제되는 곳이 기회일 수 있다. 다만 남들의 실수와 반대로 행동하는 것은 쉽지 않다. 리스크와 조건: 소액이라도 고도의 역량이 필요하다. 비효율 시장, 대체 시장, 사모시장에 들어간다고 돈을 버는 것은 아니며 성공을 보장하지 않는다. 우월한 경쟁력이 있어야 성과를 낼 수 있다. 출연자 전망: 마커스는 연 50% 수익이라는 목표는 현실적으로 매우 어렵다고 보며, 자본이 적은 투자자도 역량 없이는 성공하기 어렵다고 강조한다.

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01. i'm just thinking of another quote from buffett where he said if he started all over again today and was managing very small amounts of capital he thinks he would be able to get uh close to 50 returns per year and do you think what are your thoughts on that do you think that's that's still feasible today what sort of should investors who have very small amounts of capital and are trying to invest in themselves really look for those very small cap um international more obscure stocks well look i'm not familiar with the quotation i don't know when he made it or what he was talking about uh it's very hard to have a goal of fifty percent uh five zero uh yes and especially in a low return world you know uh when when the in uh 25 years ago no excuse me 15 years ago when the fed funds rate was i think four uh and and the the five-year treasury yields at six then uh for example stocks would have to be priced to return 10-11-12 in order to compete with fixed income high yield bonds might have yielded 10 contractual so stocks had to appear to offer much higher returns now with with the fed funds rate at zero and treasuries at one to two people will say you know if i could get six from stocks that would be great so that means in order for the prospective return to come down the price goes up and uh i think that's happened and that's what that what's what's explained the the move of the stock market over the last uh 14 months um made it hard very hard to to get 15 and so now he says if he had a little money to manage and of course that's an important key because you know the less money you have the more you can use these tiny situations which are maybe too small for any other institutions to care about anything that anything that discourages people from going into a certain area plays in favor of the people who will go there and in fact we we talk about the efficient market things price fair in the official market nothing returns 50 by the way uh so um nothing in the efficient market everything's price fair um but then uh maybe it's not all perfectly uh um efficient maybe there are inefficiencies what i call mistakes things that are priced too low bargains where you can't get very high returns but if there are bargains what would be the source of those bargains what is it that makes those bargains come into existence and the answer for me is ignorance and apathy also bias so you know if everybody knows about it it's not gonna it you know if something is priced to return fifty percent but if everybody finds out about it it's not gonna be stay that way the other thing is if if people say if people say buy high quality stocks at any price then the return on that on on high quality stocks will go to hell because people will pay too much if people say i wouldn't touch a b rated bond at any price then b rated bonds can have too high a price a return relative to their risk they can be underpriced relative their risk that's an inefficiency but and uh you know you have to find those things and size is one of the things that does it because you know i mean i've i remember talking to people you should think about this that that they say no too small they don't say it's not a good company they don't say it's overpriced they don't say it doesn't have growth they say too small despite the merits well then that's where you should look you got to do the things which are the opposite of the of the mistakes other people make but it's not easy so even if you're even if you had a small amount of money to invest in answer to your question that's not enough you still have to have a high level skill and you know just going into so-called inefficient markets or alternative markets private markets just going into those markets doesn't give you money doesn't guarantee a success you still have to be a a superior competitor in order to have success