저자: LiLu · 외국인
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결론: 순자산가치 이하 저평가 기업(Net-Net)을 실제 재무자료로 분석하는 방법과 사고방식을 강조하는 강의. 분석 도구: 미국 기업은 Value Line을 활용하고 다른 국가는 증권사 1페이지 요약을 쓰라고 권함. 시총, 세전이익, 고정자산, 장부가치를 빠르게 훑는 것이 출발점이라고 설명. 사례 분석: 시총 약 6천만 달러, 세전이익 약 3천만 달러, 장부가치 약 1억 달러대 기업을 예로 듦. 보유 현금·유가증권 7천만 달러, 호텔 지분 등 부동산 자산을 세부 분석. 자산 재평가: 백화점 지분 13%의 장부가가 과소평가되었다고 보고, 해당 백화점 시총 6억 달러 이상 기준으로 약 8천만 달러 가치를 추정. 백화점은 재고 없이 매출 수수료를 받는 쇼핑몰형 구조라고 설명. 가치 결론: 실제 자산가치는 장부 대비 2~4배로 추정, 매수가 6천만 달러 대비 자산·이익 기준 여유가 크다고 봄. 리스크·조건: 부채, 운전자본, 지역 투자자 심리 등 상반된 요인을 모두 검토해야 한다고 강조. 외국인 보유가 거의 없다는 점을 고려. 성과 사례: 해당 기업 주가가 약 22에서 100대로, 다른 종목은 약 12에서 70대로 5~6배 상승했다고 언급. 이후 두 종목은 보유하지 않는다고 밝힘. 투자 철학: 이런 접근은 일반 투자자에게 자연스럽지 않으나, 적성에 맞는다면 큰 수익 가능성이 있다고 주장. 이론보다 실제로 작동하는 방법을 배우는 것이 핵심이라고 강조. 교육 메시지: 직접 분석하고 실행해야 하며, 젊을 때 잃을 것이 없으니 적극적으로 해보라고 권유. 향후 전망: 미래 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
and you know this thing come from this book every every you know every broker has a book in every country give you you know one page summary of every company but i prefer to use value lines as i said because of a u.s company just give you more information and for other countries they don't have value lines you go with this it tells you roughly is traded to 60 million dollars in market cap it has roughly about 30 million dollars in pre-tax earnings and it has about 70 million roughly 180 million dollars in fixed asset come up with 100 240 also million in book value so what does it tell you what do you do next you look at that one it took you five minutes you got this one what do you do next what how do we know it's cheap we think it might be cheap but you're not conclusion it's not conclusive yet you have to you have to go you know next to find out what exactly what is the earning what is the book what is the constitution the working capital what is in the in the uh fixed uh right now i'm just basically using common sense a common logic i mean this is something you have to really think you don't have to go through any you know this is sort of a you're still kind of a you know savable if you will if you you know that's why all my employees ever had really never went to business school and never worked for a kind of established management firm and some of them never had accounting because i find it easier to train them than somebody who did clear it hasn't really demonstrated here i mean if you sort of go through if they're teaching the right way you should be able to tell right right away what it is okay so we did some work and it really takes enough no time of the 70 million in current asset you know how much is it's all cash securities tradable securities of 180 million over 180 million in so-called fixed income well they recorded they own 100 of a hotel they recorded a 30 million as a book they also own 13 of a department store we should record on the book of 30 million it just so happened that department store is next page so it's easy for me to find i turn the pager on i find the department store i discovered it is roughly had a market cap over 600 million so 13 roughly gave me what what roughly 80 million so the book really under estimated the value by another 50 million and they also owe three cable companies in the mid 10 percentage and they also rate a whole bunch of real estate and next when i look at that department store they look at boy it has exactly the same profile they're trading roughly around the cash and security they own about two three times of their earnings and they owe a whole bunch of a different asset turn out they're the second largest cable operator as well the next thing i learned is this department store really functions more like a hotel it's not a department store that we understand here they don't take any inventory they basically provide is more like a shopping mall and they charge it by taking a percentage off the top line of all the merchants sell their stuff there okay so you added all up here is what you have okay you're paying 60 million dollars you have a 70 million dollar in cash this is no debt 70 million in cash you have another 100 million in stock that's how much is that 170 million if a 30 million dollar is a hotel the value hasn't been changed over the last 10 years and real estate in korea has gone up dramatically over that same period of time i went to career and look at the hotel i look at all their department stores it looks quite distant to me i check the recent transactions of all the things in the neighborhood they all indicate me that value is more like a two three four times of what is on the book but supposedly i take it on the book supposedly taking on the book let's add another 150 million how much we have right now roughly 320 million also which i paid a 60 million and besides i have a earning of about 30 million a year what did i miss you got a whole bunch of different things against you you also have a whole bunch of a different thing that really in your favor you have to go through all of it each one and think rationally carefully you have to add to that list of the attitude of the local investors the other people who are buying because there's nobody from foreign that really own this damn thing if you check that so you go through all of that and we don't have time to go through all of that but you should and then you'll come up with a solution let me come up with your decision as i have i sort of own it and what happens to the stock since well again nobody's have any computer whatever you can check okay so i'll have two charts that uh that are printed out directly from bloomberg one is that the department store it was traded around to somewhere around 22.
last i checked it went to about a hundred and then and this one start with twelve asked the check is around seventy something each went up about five six times anyway well i give a couple examples just tell you that this type of approach is not natural to an investor it's not natural to you however if for whatever reason you come to the conclusion that you yourself your personalities somehow fit in this mutated jinpoo that this is something that you might really be looking to do the only thing that i can add to that is that there's a lot of money in it as has been completely repeatedly proved by people from bangaram to buffett and everybody else and i have been the probably just most grateful to this class to bruce and actually many years before i came to business school i took that class and really changed me fundamentally but one thing you do have to do is you got to do it i mean that's why i was somewhat disappointed if it would you know the amount of work you have put into places i tell you i made hundreds of thousands of dollars just taking this class just listening to the 14 15 people but it did a lot of work i'm telling you you can make a lot of money if you're really into this not only just listen but do it i mean don't you guys you know how much you spend you know coming to school here how much you spend what is the tuitions board and all of that stuff what is it now what 70 all together well you need at least to make it that up i mean you should at least make seventy thousand dollar back right you also have a two years you're not making anything you gotta make that up how do you make it up this is a terrific way to do it and so that's what i'm kind of my last point i want to make is the only reason i come back and really so i don't really talk about our holdings anymore this is actually we don't hold any of those two stocks anymore uh the only way i do that is because all that you know when i came here prior to business school and doing the business school you know most people still talk about names and i benefit hugely hugely just by listening and actually do it that's the difference and back then that was more than you know 10 15 years ago i made you know roughly hundreds of thousands in one stock is more than a hundred thousand back then i think our cost was also a little bit lower than the 70 i think i mean it was i can't remember what was but but it was a lower and but that's professor you're into this class for this class is different from any other classes because there's no theory all everybody's telling you is what works and if they don't tell you that one well ask them they should well maybe they should but i did okay so this you sort of you you guys have a terrific opportunity you'll be able to bid all the points that got into bruce's class and if you don't really use this thing shame on you you got to do it i mean those are things really there's so much gold in it that little pages the little books those value lines all of them you've got to use it you got to do it i mean you're young you have energy you know what to lose there's nothing to lose
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