저자: DanIves · 외국인
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지정학 리스크에 따른 시장 급락은 AI 혁명과 무관한 과도한 매도이며, 특히 사이버보안·소프트웨어 대형주가 과도하게 할인됐다고 주장. AI CapEx 약 4조 달러는 지속되고 메모리 슈퍼사이클도 유지된다고 봄. 반도체 칩 대형주(엔비디아, AMD 등)와 한국 반도체(SK하이닉스, 삼성전자)는 하락 시 매수 기회로 제시. 테슬라-스페이스X 합병을 장기 시나리오로 보고 테슬라를 긍정적으로 평가. 에너지(가스·전력·원전)가 AI 데이터센터의 2·3차 수혜처가 될 것이라 언급.
다듬은 글
But I think the software sell-off is one of the most disconnected trades I've ever seen relative like you know what I'm talking about. No one knows when the straight arm moves over. What the next step is in Iran. But you have to remember like the AI revolution is still happening. Look, I've covered tech since late '90s.
If you sold during geopolitical freakout periods, those are some of the worst times to sell. Look, the memory supercycle is not changing. Chips are the brains behind AI. And I look at Terran as the first step what's going to be a Tesla SpaceX merger. With geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rattling the tech sector, many investors are asking one big question.
Should I be still be investing in AI and technology? Is the massive capital we've seen flowing into tech starting to dry up or is this just a temporary setback? Today, we sit down with Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities, to find out why he believes this is actually the most critical time to stay in the game.
Dan is going to give us the names he thinks are great value here and if we go lower, we'll cover everything from the upcoming SpaceX IPO and how it relates to massive potential of Tesla's Terran project. Is it time to pull back or is this time to reinvest? The answers are right here. Let's dive right in.
Dan Ives, welcome again to the show. It's great to have you here to give us some guidance in these really volatile markets. I I I guess first question, this overall market sell-off, we maybe got a little bit of a break from it today but not not hugely. Uh it does it offer special value for certain sectors in AI?
Like you know like what sectors you know you know to could we take advantage of investor take advantage of uh with this downturn? Look, this is a a it's a wild knuckle environment. I mean similar to COVID liberation day and that's sort of what we're going through. I mean look, I think the area that's probably the most disconnected continues to be cybersecurity.
You know, that's an area that and these stocks are trading like they're really going to be disintermediated by AI and CrowdStrike and others. I'll give you names like CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Zscaler. Look, I think the software sell-off is one of the most disconnected trades I've ever seen relative to Microsoft or going through something similar in the end.
Yeah, it's it's hard for any of us to figure out where oil is going or when exactly this conflict is going to end, but should people be holding dry powder to see, you know, another couple weeks or should they be going in saying, you know, if I wanted to put in X amount of dollars, put in a quarter now, a quarter later.
Is this the right time to start sort of sort of stepping in? Yeah, I think that latter part is more how you do it. Like in other words, like I said, no one knows when the straight arm moves over. What the next step is in Iran. But you have to remember like the AI revolution is still happening. The $4 trillion that's going to be spent is still going to be spent in terms of CapEx.
I think you look at the quality specifically at large cap names that are way sold off to Nvidia, to Microsoft. Right, we Tesla's another one. And you and you pick at these names as the sell-off continues. Look, I've covered tech since late '90s. If you sold during geopolitical freakout periods, those are some of the worst times to sell.
You're absolutely right. I mean, last year Terran liberation day, I think, you know, Nvidia got below 90 for about a nanosecond and it's very very hard to pick the bottom. So, I think that's it's a good idea to start start legging in and saying, you know, what I'm going to get I'm going to get some value here and and this too shall pass.
Um Do you Do you Do you like the like IGV? Do you think that's a that's a good ETF to be looking at? I mean, or more single names? Yeah, I don't love the IGV. I mean, just it's a barometer but just giving some of the names. To me, it's really more a you want to earn some chip names you know, in these sell-offs, Nvidia, AMD and others.
On software, I would rather be on a Microsoft, Salesforce, ServiceNow. I would get cybersecurity, CrowdStrike, Palo Alto, Zscaler. They're ones in particular that really stick out. I do think it's more the individual names in terms of the winners. Given some of these value Look, a lot of these stocks are trading like numbers are coming down 10 to 15%.
So, it just speaks to what I believe is baked into all of these stocks. For our investors who are, you know, interested in SK Hynix and uh and uh Samsung and Micron to an extent, they really like that as event, but it's also in my view it's a it's it's another step what ultimately will be a Tesla SpaceX merger you know, down the road.
I think that's you know, to me as a Tesla investor, you want to see these two companies get further and further intertwined. And look, when you bring up SpaceX in the context of Anthropic and OpenAI and it I mean, it just shows that the appetite is there from an investor perspective. And I think SpaceX it's a one of one, right?
In terms of what they're doing. And especially when it comes to data, really what SpaceX is doing in the data and the models. So, would you say that, you know, if we get Tesla at lower valuations and you know, you don't you think you might not be able to get into the SpaceX IPO, so the good time to get some Tesla because ultimately those two will move together.
SpaceX does well, Tesla is going to move well. Is this sort of a proxy to get a little bit of SpaceX on board if you can't get the actual? We talked about that. I mean, I think that's an opportunity in terms of Tesla. Almost tangentially owning SpaceX through it. And also it's xAI. The xAI merger with SpaceX is extremely important as well.
And really what Musk is creating is his own ecosystem. I mean, you know, in terms of his own AI ecosystem between X, xAI, SpaceX and Tesla. I want to ask you a little bit. There's been a lot of buzz about this Terran project that Musk wants to do that's allegedly ultimately going to give us 1 gigawatt of compute which is just a massive number.
But um you know, what do you say I mean, they he he's done his gigafactories. Um it it's hard to doubt him. What do you think of Terran? Is this really something that we could see, you know, maybe in the latter part of this decade that, you know, this will actually be happening? I believe it will. I mean, it just go back like when Apple said they're going to build their own chips, and basically take Intel out, everyone thought that was a joke.
It means it happened. I mean, chips are the brains behind AI. And I look at Terran as the first step what's going to be a Tesla SpaceX merger. Terra side I'm sure that's the first step. What's going to be a cost basis X merger? Again, so many people have tried to short, you know, short Elon and you know, been carried out.
If he go comes through with his TerraFab, longer term, it's going to be, you know, two, three years, maybe even more, you know, before it really gets up and running. Do you think they're a credible threat to traditional foundries like the TSMCs of the world or Samsung or a real competitor like you're not sort of the only game in town now?
You know, I can do everything from design and manufacture, you know, a vertically integrated, you know, massive competitor. It's about building an end-to-end platform and that's essentially what they're doing. Look, are they competitive TSMC others? You know, Nvidia, the co-op position, yeah, but I think this just leads more and more like Tesla and women be like an end-to-end platform in chips, the software, the data, robotics, autonomous.
I mean, this is sort of everything that's getting built out. I think it's easy to get caught up in the environment and the backdrop and you got to kind of see far as through the trees in terms of what they're ultimately doing. Now, in terms of is there anybody else do you know, you know, thinking about something like that?
I mean, this could potentially be a, you know, big change up in the end for the Korean names, you know, 5 or 10 years from now. Is anybody else thinking about this or is this really somebody something only Elon can probably do? I do think it's Look, I think everyone every big player in their own way is trying to figure out how they can get bigger.
If it's through acquisition, if it's through product development, if it's partnerships, you know, in this fourth industrial revolution. I think that's how everyone's thinking. Now, it's coming down to who's going to be successful. And who's going to be successful time to market. Because I think the windows are going to be the key as it plays out.
In we we had a we had sort of a big downdraft in in the KOSPI early and then it stayed bounced and stabilized pretty nicely. Seems to be, you know, do you see value in Samsung and SK right now or, you know, or do you know, do we wait for a little bit more of a dip if this conflict go goes on a little bit longer?
How should we be thinking about that? Look, I mean, obviously KOSPI had a historical run to start the year. You've seen a massive risk off not just KOSPI but globally Nasdaq everywhere. Korea is going to be the centerpiece when you think about AI in terms of where they play with SK. With Samsung feeling I think it's really in my opinion, you have to play the software side that we talked about but you also have to play the chip side.
That's going to be key and I think Korea is sitting center. So, if we get another downdraft, there's probably good value especially in the chip names in Korea. Oh, yeah. I think Look, the memory semiconductor is not changing. I I mean, the point in demand and supply when [clears throat] you think about AI chips 12 to 1 today.
So, I continue to think that Look, if you if your time horizon is a month, six months, okay. It's a risk off environment. If you have a view one year, two years, three years, these are going to be the, you know, the opportunities to win. Makes sense. Makes sense. Um, you know, with with your sort of the higher gas prices and the higher diesel prices and the view that it may last quite some time, you know, even even after we get hopefully this thing settled sooner rather than later and in a good way, there's been a lot you know, some pushback I think in certain middle of the country places where they've been trying to put up data centers because of concerns about how much it's going to raise power.
Is is power something that the market is sort of overlooking? Like can we power all these data centers if they don't have their own power and I don't know, I doubt solar will be able to do it. Can we really, like, you know, power all these things and are we able to put up small nuclear reactors to be able to power them?
Is Is that like something that the market is overlooking? How are we going to power these things? Yeah, I mean, look at the more data centers on the construction and active data centers. That's going to be huge personally as you look going forward. And when it comes to natural gas, utilities, nuclear, solar, pipeline companies, I mean, it's going it's it's like energy is going to be one of the second, third derivatives of AI.
Look, I get some of the pushback, but it would be like when you think about AI again, the engine is going to be the data centers. You need these data centers to build and I also think it's going to create more jobs and it's going to take away in terms of the technology. Because the innovation has happened to the United States.
So, I just think this is it's a seminal time. It's There's a lot of variables going on, but I believe this is really creating it's year three of an 8 10-year AI revolution. It's being built. I think it's it's sort of easy to forget that if you don't step back and say, you know, where are we in the, you know, in the baseball game?
Like if we're in the third or fourth inning, you know, you're you're you're you're playing very differently than if you think you're in the seventh and the seventh and the eighth. You know, we all should do this. Yeah, and also that's important. If you're playing baseball, old third inning, and your team's down by two runs, you say the game's over?
No, I'm just saying I mean, like that's but that's kind of like what's happening to the market now. Excellent. Well, thank Dan, thank you so much for coming on the show. Really appreciate it. I took your important time and it's always great to be with you. Looking forward to seeing you again.
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