저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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연준 인플레 둔화 신호(신규 대졸자 실업률 10.2%, WTI 60달러 하회, 임대료 하락, AI발 디플레) 제시. 금리 상승이 ARK 전략에 불리하지 않다고 주장. 빅6(Tesla 제외) 15~25%, 파괴적 혁신 기업 40~50% 연복리 상승, 나머지 시장 하락 전망. 암호화폐 폭락 후 비트코인을 최선호, 이더리움 기관용, 솔라나 소비자용으로 분류. 엔비디아 실적은 좋으나 기대 부담 언급, 소폭 매수. AMD는 메모리·CPU 점유율 측면에서 단기 유리 평가.
다듬은 글
Well, Cathie, founder, CEO, CIO of ARK Invest, welcome back to Sam TV. I'm thrilled to be here, Dan. Thank you. Okay. So, let's let's start with the slightly hawkish Fed. Or the slightly dovish Fed, however you want to put it. You recently talked about it talked about in your monthly update video. How the Fed is missing some deflationary signals.
And your view is that inflation will come down significantly next year. For those who didn't see your latest monthly video, which everyone should go check check out at ARK Invest YouTube channel. What are some of those deflationary signals? I think one number that no one really is focused on. I haven't seen it in the press at least.
Is the unemployment rate for new college graduates. And that jumped from August to from 9.3% to 10.2%. Now that's in the double digits. The overall employment rate ticked up to 4.4%. So this is more than twice the overall unemployment rate. And the other thing on the inflation front is oil prices have cracked below $60 as measured by West Texas Intermediate.
I think we're in the 58 59 range. And on a year-over-year basis, that's about a 20% decline. And we're also seeing broader based declines in rent in the United States. And that will get into the inflation rate slowly but surely over the next year. And [snorts] then finally, we're our research is focused on the deflation associated with all of the technologies that that we research and invest in.
And the deflationary pressures, especially from AI. Many people think, oh, these large language models so expensive, so many GPUs. People using these models and not building them are enjoying well, enjoy some of some of it is free. And then there's the step up subscriptions, but most is free, certainly for the consumer world.
And the testing is also free for the for the corporate world. Got it. Um So these signals they're not good. I mean, they're good if you want the Fed to be cutting. But they're not good for the economy. So if I recognize that the Fed is getting these as well. But if they continue to either call it miss it or dismiss it what would be in your view the ramifications of that to one to the ARK portfolio but also to the broader equity markets.
Well, I think first of all, let's let's say that the market is beginning to understand that the Fed is beginning to understand. So it has already turned. Maybe it's future, I don't think it is. Many people say, oh, well, then all this means for your strategy is you need lower interest rates, or else this is not going to work both on the AI side and on the crypto side.
We disagree mightily on that. In fact, we already have proof in 2017 and 2018, interest rates moved up and we had two very significant outperformance years, outperforming the benchmarks. Now we don't measure ourselves against benchmarks, but most other other people do. So we we we give that as a comparison.
And it wasn't just in an up year. 2018 was a down year and ARK outperformed. So I just I I want to diffuse that myth, you know, that we, if interest rates are going up, that ARK's kind of strategy will underperform. That that has not generally been so except for the massive interest rate hike we saw during COVID and or in the aftermath of COVID.
And by the way, I don't think we'll see that again. And the reason is while we might have another pandemic, hopefully not, but if we did I don't think governments would react the same way. They see all of the ramifications that are still lingering. Are still lingering. And just like China in '08 '09 it did not it was the most disciplined in terms of COVID and not throwing money at it because it had learned from '08 '09.
I think most other governments have learned from the the COVID crisis. What do you think it could mean for the broader equity markets? [snorts] I think that a lot of our strategies innovation, they are hitting escape velocity in terms of the costs are low enough and the technologies are ready to scale.
Unlike in the tech and telecom bubble. What I think for the broader markets and and you can see this in our Big Ideas 2025. In Brett Winton's section, Brett's our chief futurist. We we put a table which delineated what we expect in terms of market appreciation from three categories. One was the MAG 6.
One was truly disruptive innovation companies, technologically enabled. And one was the rest of the market. Now consider the source. But if we're right, if our research is correct and we're we're both top-down and bottom-up in in coming to these numbers. We believe that the MAG 6 and we take Tesla out.
It was banished because it didn't act like the rest of them. We think that the MAG 6 will do fine. Um You know, we wouldn't be surprised 15 to 25% appreciation. Of course, there there's going to be some disruption or disintermediation to their models potentially. So maybe one or two will fall out. We think that technologically enabled disruptive innovation emerging that that will appreciate in the 40 to 50% compound annual rate.
Again, because they're ready for prime time. And we think the rest of the market, which you know, is really a representation of the traditional world order will [snorts] probably depreciate because technologically enabled innovation is going to disrupt every sector, every industry, every sub-industry.
Got it. I know your trades your buys and sells get a lot of attention in media coverage, but a large part of your trades is simply responding to to the flows in and out of the ETF, not really you expressing your views. Or first of all, is that true? Okay, I'll just clarify that. So the wonderful thing about ETFs as as a portfolio manager, I don't have to worry about flows.
Mutual funds have to worry about flows, when to put inflows to work and how. And they have to meet redemptions as well. With ETFs, the infrastructure around ETFs and the infrastructure is outside of ARK largely and any ETF provider. So the authorized participants, which are primarily all the brokers out there and the market makers are are managing the flows.
Now, so what you do see when we and I know the most controversial sales are Tesla, for example. When when you see Tesla when you see it taking taken down, what are we doing? Typically, it's gone through a nice appreciation move relative to other stocks. Right. And in the latest round um we use Tesla to we take we took some profits from Tesla, which is nearer to its high and allocated them into or some of those profits into crypto, which just went through thanks to the flash crash on 1010.
And thanks to MSCI's I guess it was either a press release or or some information flow that MSCI put out saying that it was reconsidering including debts in its indices. And that happened on the same day as the flash crash, but nobody noticed it. And so that information got out more slowly. So, those two dynamics hit crypto hard.
And uh Tesla was appreciating and uh as of today, it's roughly 12 and 1/2% of the portfolio. So, we tend to rebalance the portfolio in that way when one stock moves up relative to others that are uh going through a painful moment. Right. Got it. So, that was actually so, the where I was getting to with that question about your buys and sells was actually around or to give you an opportunity to tell the viewers about over the last uh past couple of months since we last spoke, what were some of your most meaningful trades where you had a change of view, either positive or negative, and why?
And one of the those things you just touched on would be um uh crypto, and the trimming of Tesla was not necessarily a change in view, was simply rebalancing. Um any other sort of meaningful trades that uh Yes, so you'll share? Absolutely. What what we will do in a down round like we've just seen. It was kind of a compressed down round and I think I think we're on the other side of it, though though one never knows.
Um we we uh consolidated towards higher conviction names and um we got and one of our companies um is being taken out at the same time. So, Exact Sciences I think we had roughly a 1 and 1/2% position in it. Um we the the uh acquisition of Exact Sciences by Abbott Labs got the whole multiomic sector going.
And and believe me, it's lagged so far behind that we think it has miles to go. So, we weren't taking profits per se from them, but we uh we were selling Exact because it went to within 5% of the takeout price. Pretty high probability that it's going to happen within the next 6 months. Um so, that became a source of cash.
Uh as did uh another name, uh GitLab. Uh so, what we do is we concentrate towards our highest uh our our highest conviction names. GitLab beca- GitLab because of a changeover in a number of people on the its management team um has reduced one of our bottom-up scores. Uh whereas um Tempus AI, we we uh put more so within the AI space, both of them are touch AI uh in important ways.
We recycled some of the funds into Tempus, which had been hit hard. Um and we we bought some Coinbase. Uh we bought some Circle and Bitmain immersion. So, it was very interesting. The AI hype fears occurred at the same time as the crypto fears. And they almost seem to be fee- feeding one another. Uh and so, we took a takeout name and put it into AI and crypto.
We did the same by swapping uh a little bit from one of our AI names into a higher conviction AI name. Got it. Makes sense. Um so, speaking of crypto um and building your position there you maintain a significant exposure to crypto equities. Um Coinbase, Bitmain, Circle, Bullish, etc. Um you're obviously bullish on Bitcoin.
You're bullish on uh stablecoin adoption and therefore Ethereum. Rather than asking you a general generic sort of what is your view on crypto um if you were to actually rank them in terms of relative attractiveness over the next 3 to 5 years. So, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and various crypto equities which is a also a diverse group, exchanges that's, you know, the treasury companies um the stablecoin issuers what would that ranking look like?
Oh, okay. So, you're asking uh let me start with the crypto first. Um I think during the flash crash, uh one of the major exchanges out there had to sell Bitcoin. This is what always happens. Um Bitcoin is the most liquid of all of the crypto assets out there. So, it usually is the first one to get sold and drag the others down.
The others go down more. Um so, we think And again, we're we're at a moment where we think we've seen the bottom because the news is out. Uh JP Morgan posted the report about MSCI. Now, everyone knows that. Uh everyone knows about the flash crash. Um and you know, while Binance is very very profitable, I think there are memories of Bitfinex, which um uh wh- which have left scarred tissue and you know, the the ramifications thereof.
Uh so, we think uh from the beginning, when we talk about Bitcoin, we say, "Look, it's a very big idea. It is a global monetary system. It is a technology. And it is a new asset class. It's leading the charge into a completely new asset class. So, it's the leader. And it's where all institutions are going to dip their toes in first.
So, that one has to be at the top of the list just in terms of the big three. I think in terms of ether and Solana the uh the the narratives are shifting a little bit. Absolutely, Ethereum is what institutions are choosing um as they're building on top of the Ethereum uh layer one with layer twos. Now, the big debate out there is are layer layer twos and you know, they're proliferating widely now are they going to commoditize because they're not close enough to the consumer, except for Base, which is Coinbase's one.
They're not close enough to the consumer uh and they're they're um dependent on the layer ones. So, over time, as these proliferate, is there going to be a a commoditization and the value will flip to those closer to the consumer and to the layer ones. Um we're thinking that could be uh the case here.
S- uh but all that said, uh the proliferation of building layer twos on Ethereum continues. So, that would be our our second choice. Um and really, it's I think as I described on the last call, really an institutional play. And then Solana is more the consumer play, though of course, it also would like to be part of the institutional uh scaling of crypto crypto.
Uh so, we shall see there. And of course, Solana is just a layer one, so much simpler. So, uh I I think those are the big three. In terms of uh equities, and you'll see in the flagship strategy, we cannot hold um the pure plays in in terms of ETFs. In other strategies, we can. It's just what our clients would and would not accept uh as we were evolving our strategy.
And so, we have to rely on the stocks. So, you'll see Coinbase is right up there. It's number one. Robinhood is number two in terms of it is moving quickly towards the digital wallet space and understands this is the game. Who's going to have that digital wallet? [snorts] Uh and then you'll see us trying to expose our clients um to stablecoins.
So, Circle is that one further down the pack. And a little bit of ether and Solana. Uh so, I think w- including the last two, one is very small, the Solana a- for for technical reasons right now, it's still in pre-registration. And the ether one is around 2% of the portfolio. So, taking crypto altogether we're probably talking about a 12-13% position uh in in the portfolio.
And that feels the right size. Let's see how this recovery tests the various technicals and uh if um you know, decisions by institutions like the the the wirehouses, Morgan Stanley um BofA Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo, UBS if any of them decide to put Bitcoin on their platforms through the ETFs. They have not done so yet.
Uh so, we're waiting to see when that happens, and they may have been waiting for this 4-year cycle to play out, right? Because that's what they've heard since since the halving and and now we're seeing a down round. Let's see if they step in. We don't know. Just for a clarification, particularly for the viewers, when you say the wire houses put it on their platform, you're referring to sort of their they're putting into the asset allocation recommendation to the to the clients.
Yes, what they're saying is we have approved this spot ETF. It can be spot Bitcoin, spot ETH. We have approved this on our platform and you can put it in your models you can buy it for your PAs, your personal accounts. So, it's a pretty big deal and it's really demand pull from the advisors. If they want it, if their clients are clamoring for it saying, "Hey, now is the time.
Let's let's get into these into these new assets." Got it. I know Nvidia is not a big position for you, but wanted to get your take on what Nvidia potentially means for the broader market. So, Nvidia reported a blowout quarter. I don't recall hearing from a single analyst or an investor who thought Nvidia had a bad earnings call last week, yet the stock went down in a in a big intraday reversal.
That clearly spooked the market. I know you don't think we're in an AI bubble. But how do you reconcile that with the reality versus expectations dynamics of what forms a stock price? Where Nvidia's price action suggests that expectations may now be ahead of reality. Yeah, I think well, a couple of points there and you'll notice that we did buy on that setback.
And you're right, it's not a huge position. It's about 1 and 1/2%. And one of the reasons for that we're watching the price action. That's that's true, but I also think there was a crypto AI relationship here. The kinds of investors interested in crypto are also interested in AI and you know, there there was a sell-off and you're going to have some investors, speculators certainly following the momentum.
And that's all they're doing, you know, and they'll ask questions later. In terms of the Nvidia report, it was spectacular. It was a re-acceleration in top line growth. It was an increase in margins. But we do see other signs of competition emerging out there. And you know, the hyperscalers, their cloud strategies probably do not have 75% gross margins.
And they're buying from Nvidia and now Nvidia's telegraphing, "Our margins are higher than our customers." So, that that might be um unsettling to them and and pushing them to pursue a strategy involving AMD or involving Google's TPUs. Or involving Amazon's Trainium or Inferentia. So, there there are and then you've got the special purpose GPUs.
Tesla is talking in very optimistic tones about its own AI chip and how it expects to have the best chip for robo taxis, for autonomous mobility [snorts] of of all out there. Because Nvidia's is a special purpose I mean, as a general purpose chip, Tesla's will be a special purpose chip. So, I always look at how customers and competitors are acting.
And yes, the for Nvidia are high. They're very high. Now we have one acceleration quarter. Is the market now expecting another acceleration? Their guidance suggests it could be, but maybe it won't be. So, we're getting into that. So, you're right. The expectations are high and Nvidia has to deliver.
So far, Nvidia's delivered. Got it. And speaking of a potential competitor or competitors for Nvidia's GPU AMD is a much larger position for you and clearly you're seeing it as a potential share gainer coming from a very small base. But there is a view out there that the likely the likely competition, if there were to be some serious competition to Nvidia is will likely be from these application specific chips, whether you know, the the the likes of Google's TPU or other custom specific GPUs.
Which would I guess if that were to be true it would put AMD in sort of a lose-lose position, meaning if Nvidia maintains its dominance and reigns holds on to its market share then there's not much room for AMD. If the future is more with these alternatives, the you know, the the application specific chips and and the likes of the Google TPUs then that that future won't be so good for AMD either.
So, how do you Yeah, there's the thought with power being the constraint here um probably means that companies are going to choose the best chip and you know, especially when it comes to the CUDA software around the Nvidia chip. One of the things AMD has that Nvidia does not have yet, although it's on the road map is it has much more memory for these large context windows that we need for reasoning.
And so so that's something that's benefiting AMD short-term. And one of the other things that it has, it's taking share from Intel in the CPU space. It's up to 40% share. That's unbelievable. In speaking with OpenAI for during a number of our conversations, they say, "We think people are missing the fact that we need both GPUs and CPUs.
So, for right now, we think AMD's in a very good spot." So, in our last conversation, you spoke about the AI driven opportunities in health care and multi multi-omics in particular. As a follow-up to that what do you think happens to medical hardware with AI? There's obviously lots of exciting innovation and opportunities in the software driven side of health care.
But in terms of do you have a view on medical hardware? I'm thinking for example, robotics. Yes. Well, Intuitive Surgical is the robot surgery company and we've talked to them and agree with them that humanoid robots probably are a threat to to to Intuitive Surgical if it does not move aggressively in that direction, but not for years.
Not for years. And in fact, Brett Winton, our chief futurist has done is a preliminary calculation, but humanoid robots are going to be 200,000 times more complex than a robo taxi. And and therefore are going to probably take longer They'll be able to do, you know, simple tasks, but to do something like surgery, that will take years and years and years.
And in terms of Neuralink, Elon is already using robotics, not humanoid robots, but robotics to embed Neuralink into into human brains. So, I I think it's going to be very important robotics, the hardware side. Got it. Well, Kathy, that's all the time we have. Thank you so much. Hope to see you again. Great to see you. Thanks so much. Bye-bye now. Bye.
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