저자: DanIves · 외국인
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AI 인프라·데이터센터 확산이 장기 수요를 주도하며, 소프트웨어 '종말' 우려는 과도한 내러티브라고 주장. 엔비디아·마이크로소프트·팔란티어를 AI 핵심 수혜주로 꼽고, IT서비스·일부 SaaS(어도비 등)는 위험하다고 봄. 지정학적 악재 매도는 기회로 보고 장기 관점을 유지하라는 메시지.
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This is probably a top three surprise that I've seen in my almost 30 years. To me is shocking how the narrative took over to the point that investors really thought that software space was almost done. I almost feel bad for investors personally that sell stocks on geopolitical. There'll be the doomsdayers just like what we saw in you know with Iran in March and oil.
Look how that played out. Those will have es and flows, but you have to understand longer term what's happening here. And I just continue to view those as opportunities relative to our long-term view from co the different things we've seen in between. Tune out the noise, eye on the prize. And remember, well, Dan Ives, great to see you as always.
Great to see you as always. Um, normally I don't need to introduce you, but you do have a new firm, Yorkville Ives. What is it? Why did you do it? And how can people learn more about it? Yeah. So, I created Yorkville ABS in mid July is when we announced it. And look, it's a modern merchant bank. Yeah.
I found great partners. Yorkville, which is a longtime hedge fund, very successful one. People I've known him personally. And it was to really break glass and build a bank focused on tech, energy, and infrastructure. And for me, after my career going back, you know, many, many years, this was the next step for me.
And I'm just so excited to be doing this at this great time in the fourth industrial revolution. Awesome. And you just got back from Nebraska. What did you see there? Yeah, so we did a data center tour in rural Nebraska. Look, I think the reality is, and it's happened all across the Midwest. I've seen it across Midwest, Southeast, Texas, everywhere.
get thousand and 1500 data centers in motion to get built. That is the hearts and lungs of the AI revolution. Politically, you're definitely going to get into sort of a battle, a boxing match here as we go into midterms. But in my view, first time in 30 years, US is ahead of China when it comes to tech.
You need to see these data centers built and they're really expanding at a I'd say a jaw-dropping rate. Yeah. Yeah. Let's let's talk tech stocks in general. Um there's been no shortage of volatility in the sector this year. Um looking back at the year so far, what are or one or two things that surprised you the most about the tech landscape um so far year to date?
I think what surprised me most, and I'd say this is probably a top three surprise that I've seen in my almost 30 years in the market, okay, was the SAS apocalypse and how investors [snorts] actually believed and sold these stocks down 50 60 and we talked about at the time like it was the most disconnected trade I've seen in my career.
Yeah. And I think now as it plays out, not just from Palunteer to Snowflake the Service, now to so many others, I think that to me is shocking [snorts] how the narrative took over to the point that investors really thought that software space was almost done, right? And obviously the the narrative seems to be changing now about the SA about SAS apocalypse.
Tell us more about that. Look, it remember so many investors that are bearish and they've missed every transformational growth stock the last 25 years focused on valuation. [clears throat] They call these stocks in from the 20 to four they're New York City office building for me three and a half millionaire miles later like we see the demand we see what's happening out there.
the infrastructure led by godfather of AI Jensen Nvidia to the hypers scalers the use cases are going to be built by software right and I'm not saying there's not software companies that going to be disintermediate into it Adobe among others but you can just paint them all with the same brush I think that right now is as we get into the second third fourth derivatives of AI you're seeing this tech rally spread
and I think that is a very important dynamic playing out as the bears watch it from hibernation mode cuz they can see AI in the spreadsheets. Staying with software for a little bit, um who are what are the types of companies or you could even name names um that are going to be the likely winners and what are the kinds of companies and who are the companies that are going to be likely losers.
Look at Palunteer. I mean that's the messy of AI in terms of what they've built, right? And that's a stock that went from elementary school, you know, to a teenager to now, you know, almost $200 because they've played out the execution story. Then you look at names like Snowflake, you look at names like MongoDB, you look what's happened Cyber Security, Crowd Strike, Powalt among others.
It speaks to my view. There will be ones Adobe into and some others that clearly have uphill battle. But you cannot just say AI is going to wipe out software. Right. Right. And it also looks seems like um at at one point the market was very bearish on sort of these system of record type companies. But I think more and more people and investors are realizing that vibe coding a your own CRM is not the same thing as operating your own CRM to run a global business.
Talk to a CIO. Find but go out in New York City, find me a CIO that's going to vibe co for their organization and rip out Salesforce. If you find them, I want to be at that meeting. I think that's that's the fundamental issue. I'm not Salesforce has structural problems that they have to navigate in AI and Benny knows that,
right? But I think some of these valuations reflect just too much negative. But think about the narrative stories. Nvidia stocks not working. Then what could happen in the last quarter? Microsoft, you know, beast thrown in the penalty box. Now look at it. Speaking of stocks that are not working, um, even this AI trade has had different phases, right?
So AI trade wasn't hasn't been just one thing over the last call it three plus years almost four years now. Um you know at first it was obviously Nvidia and you know who owns the who owns the model or you know Microsoft having economic interest in in open AI. Then it sort of moved on to you know infrastructure then the data center build out the bottlenecks the the power the turbines the generators even networking memory.
Um what's next in terms of this AI trade phase? It's spreading. Look, if I told you Caterpillar was an AI name, Lohee Martin, it should you're starting to see it spread. [clears throat] I was in the energy infrastructure component is going to be a key part of the the next derivative of this. For every dollar spent on Nvidia chip, we estimate there's a $10 multiplier across the rest of tech.
Investors that are betting against that, good luck. Mhm. Because I think that I'm not saying you're not going to go to white no I'm not gonna of course stocks will get ahead of themselves but to say that this is done or a bubble you're in year three of an 8 to 10 year buildup. What is what are your um call it top three picks in terms of names right now?
Look I mean Nvidia, Microsoft and Palunteer I've used three backbones of the AI revolution. Okay. But we'll go through phases like we've seen with all of them. Right. Right. But I think if you look fundamentally those are the ones best positioned relative to where we see AI revolution. Right. And where in the sector where in tech do you see a greater risk to the downside than upside from here say over the next 12 18 months?
I think IT services is very at risk. you know, just given what we see with AI. I think like I said, Adobe will be into it. Some of those software models like Adobe just announced new CEO like time's ticking. You got to adopt because otherwise, like I said, some software companies will be disintermediated.
Right. Right. In terms of your overall sector outlook over the next 12 18 months, obviously my guess is my guess is that you're bullish on the sector. What conditions have to be true over the next 12 to 18 months for your view to work? Whether it's fundamental or macro or both? To me, it's demand driven as the use cases continue to play out.
And like we've said, the AI party start at 9:30 p.m. It's 11:30 p.m. around now. That party goes to 4:00 a.m. Okay. And the point is, there will be points where a glass in the dance floor, DJ stops playing music. Maybe cops come because of noise violation, but the bears will watch the party through the windows
and that and at 6:00 a.m. when the Bulls and Bears meet up at the diner. Bulls had a lot better night than the Bears. You know, I had a question ready for you that was um I was going to ask you what time it is. Um at the 11:30 p.m. in the party. Got it. Got it. Perfect. What would make you bearish? Look, if data centers start to get voted down at 25 30% cancellation rates, if you see US China trade war that really starts to escalate after the midterms, if you saw use cases that weren't playing out, but guess what?
It's accelerated. Use cases are accelerating because you're seeing the actual ROI. And I just continue to say the bears that have caught 10 of the last two downturns will continue to miss the scale and scope of the AI revolution. Yeah. But if there's some like macro driver like you know geopolitical issues or whatever um that would be bearish from a uh valuation or draw down stock you know stock market standpoint as opposed to that having an impact on the demand.
I almost feel bad for investors personally that sell stocks on geopolitical, okay? Because it just goes back to like there'll be the doomsday just like what we saw in, you know, with Iran in March and oil. Look how that played out. The point is like it's my view like those will have es and flows, but you have to understand longer term what's happening here.
And I just continue to view those as opportunities, right? Relative to our long-term view from COVID to different things we've seen in between, right? So investors got to stay focused on the demand. Tune out the noise, eye on the prize. And remember the Bears, if they won taxes, they if they if they won I mean say the Bears, if they won the lotto, they'd be talking about taxes. Got it. Well, Dan, thank you very much. Thanks so much.
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