저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 2008년 금융위기를 예견했던 Peter Schiff이 정부 개입(저금리·정부보증 모기지·예금보험)이 새로운 거대 버블을 만들고 있다고 경고하는 내용으로, 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측은 포함하지 않음. [2008년 위기 원인 분석] 저금리 기조가 주택가격 상승과 변동금리·이자만 내는 대출 확산을 부추겼고, 무서류·무선금 대출 등 대출기준 붕괴가 있었다고 설명. 패니메이·프레디맥이 서브프라임 모기지를 대량 매입하며 정부가 사실상 모든 모기지를 보증한 구조가 시장을 왜곡했다고 주장. 주택가격 하락 → 모기지 부실 → 은행 자본 붕괴의 연쇄를 예상했고, 이에 맞춰 시장 공매도로 수익을 냈다고 언급(과거 서술). [현재 경고] 2008년 이후 문제는 해결되지 않고 오히려 악화됐으며, 같은 질병이 더 심각한 형태로 곧 폭발할 것이라고 주장. 트럼프 당선 이후 시장 낙관론을 '근거 없는 희망'으로 규정하고, 실질 경제성장 없이 통계와 버블이 성장을 가장했다고 비판. [예금보험·은행 구조] 정부의 예금 보장으로 은행의 리스크 관리 유인이 사라졌고, 대형은행은 더 커진 채 '대마불사' 상태라고 주장. FDIC 기금은 턱없이 부족해 대형 은행 파산 시 연준이 구제해야 할 것이라고 설명. 달러 붕괴 시 예금 가치 자체가 사라질 수 있다고 경고. [학자금 대출 버블] 정부 학자금 대출 보증이 대학 등록금 상승과 교직원 급여·시설 투자를 부풀렸다고 주장. 대졸자 과잉과 낮은 학업 성취로 졸업 후에도 취업하지 못하는 현상과 막대한 부채를 지적. [교육 및 자유시장 주장] 뉴올리언스 바워리 스트리트 조사 사례를 들어 학위 보유 바텐더·경비 등의 현실을 제시. 록펠러·카네기·밴더빌트 등 학력이 짧았던 부호를 예로 들며 정부 개입 없는 자유시장 교육을 주장. (영상 원제 기준 2017년 방송 내용이며, 영상에는 개별 종목·지수·환율 등에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측이 없음.)
다듬은 글
well I mean I understood the effects of fed policy uh I knew that real estate in particular was particularly sensitive to interest rates because most people when they buy a house they they they buy the money ly payment they buy the mortgage payment and so as interest rates were depressed it kept mortgage rates low even as housing prices were rising and then a lot of people were taking advantage of adjustable rate mortgages which were particularly inexpensive and a lot of them were interest only where people weren't even making payments of principal they just paid the interest and when the interest was extremely low thanks to the FED people were able to buy much larger houses or much more expensive houses than they would ordinarily be able to afford and so I saw this and I saw the impact that Rising real estate prices was having on the economy on consumption on the ability of people to transform their real estate riches Into spendable Cash by refinancing and turning their homes into ATM machines and I saw the lending standards going out the window and uh you know the proliferation of uh no dock no down payment mortgages where people could buy houses without any money Y in fact there were C certain circumstances where you can get cash back you could actually buy a house and get money uh so it was it was really a crazy time and it was amazing how few people could see what the government was doing what the Fed was doing to the market and of course then you had the direct intervention the government was guaranteeing mortgages uh and in fact the biggest buyer of subprime mortgages were Fanny and Freddy Mack which is one of the reasons they basically went bankrupt which was part of my predictions but the government was co-signing everybody's mortgage and of course they still do that you know uh and so this was very distortive to the free market so more people were buying houses then would would have it you know without without all that government help and they were paying prices that were absurd and that never would exist in a free market and so I knew this was going toh collapse and I knew prices would collapse and I knew that there would be an ensuing financial crisis because as real estate prices collapsed and mortgages went bad uh and people started default on their mortgages that this would create a banking crisis because all those mortgages are the liabilities in the banking sector or assets rather to the banks and if all of a sudden those assets are not there the whole Bank collapses because they need those assets to support their capital structure so I saw all this and you know I help position people to profit and profited uh through shorting the market and of course you know they they they Michael Lewis wrote a book The Big Short and they made a movie about it but not that many people saw that but you know to me it was very obvious but what's more important is not that crisis that everybody mixed but the even bigger crisis that everybody is about to miss you know it's the same people and it's the same uh forces at play and in fact all of the problems that led to the 2008 financial crisis have been exacerbated since that crisis so we haven't solved the problems we've made them all worse and so it's the same disease only we now have a a a much more severe case of that disease and it's about to become inflamed and you know a lot of people are very optimistic about Donald Trump now of course these people were petrified of a trump presidency right up until the point he was elected now everybody is euphoric at least in the market but the reason that I you know I thought Trump was probably going to win is because I understood what most people in the markets did not and that was that the recovery that has been uh you know uh much hyped up by the media and by the fed and by Obama and you know I knew that it was phony I knew that there was no real economic growth that we had a a rlated bubble masquerading his growth and I knew that beneath the a super superficial layer of manufacturer statistics was a very weak economy and I knew a lot of people would be voting uh you know for Trump out of frustration out of anger out of protest because people's standard of living was falling and I often said that this is the first recovery in history to be worse than the recession that we're supposedly recovering from and so I thought Trump could win but of course the economic problems that are the reason Trump was elected have not been solved because we elected him nor is he going to solve them the optimism is uh unfounded just like people were very hopeful that Barack Obama would make things better and he made things worse and now you have a lot of false hope uh surrounding Donald Trump but we have some serious serious economic problems that need to be tackled before we can make any legitimate progress well I think it was you know popular delusions and The Madness of crowds I mean most of the people who didn't see the real estate bubble owned a house and you know they didn't want to admit that the asset that they own their biggest asset that they thought was going to appreciate indefinitely uh they didn't want to acknowledge that it was a bubble because this was their ticket to retirement I mean you know the idea that you can just buy a home and live in it and as you live in it and enjoy it every year it just goes up in value by $50,000 $100,000 I mean people average people you know people if you were a teacher school teacher or a fireman and you were you know 40 years old you thought you'd be a multi-millionaire by the time you were 60 because how much your house was going to be worth and so nobody had to save any money you can buy whatever you wanted because the house did the work for you in fact I think a lot of people didn't even think they needed a job they just thought if they bought a house that was the only job they needed the house would do all the work because it would just keep going up in value and they could keep you know borrowing the money uh so nobody wanted to believe it of course you had all the people from the mortgage market and the the Realtors they no they want they wanted the party to keep going uh so you know there was not that many people that you know that really even wanted to acknowledge this nobody wanted it to end and anybody like me if I tried to re on that parade right I mean I was immediately attacked by everybody I want people worried about losing their money because then they'll be careful about which banks they entrusted to um but now you have this moral hazard where nobody gives a damn what the bank does with your deposit because it's government guaranteed now the banks know this so there's no point in the banks competing for safety so they just you know do all kinds of Reckless things and now you have to have government kind of monitoring The Reckless Behavior of banks but they're only acting recklessly because the government removed the free market incentive not to uh because when people were concerned about their deposits then Banks had to be responsible in order to attract deposits and a lot of people say well you know the average American doesn't know how to read a balance sheet wouldn't know how to analyze a bank to know whether it's safe or not well you don't have to look I don't know anything about auto mechanics but I still buy a car and you know I could go and read Consumer Reports or I can talk to other people who maybe do know a little bit about cars and they can help me make a selection you know I don't know anything about how a computer works but I can buy one and I buy you know I don't you know I buy good ones that are quality because I could do research and same thing about a television set I don't know you I couldn't build one I have no idea how to repair one uh so the same thing would happen with banks there would be uh Publications that would rank Banks and of course you know Banks you know you can see oh you know where does Warren Buffett keep his money I'm going to keep my money there you know where do the smart people Bank okay well you know they must be good right so if you don't know enough then you know follow the people who do right you know so I think the free market would would produce a very sound stable banking system but the one that we have now that's built on government guarantees is a complete mess I mean this is a disaster and you know we we came close to the abyss in ' 08 because these whole all these Banks would have toppled and you know during the Depression you know one or two % of the deposits were lost had we not had the tarp and all those big bailouts I mean we would have lost I mean huge percentage of deposits would have been lost but at the end of the day what the government did in the bailouts has just made the system that much worse all those banks that were too big to fail they're way bigger now and so you know and you know they're going to fail and if they don't fail it's only going to be because the dollar collapsed and so it doesn't even matter that you that your deposits are not lost because they're not going to be worth anything a lot of these Savings and Loans of course you know they had government guaranteed deposits and that was the source of some of the Reckless Behavior you know that is the moral hazard When government does that so you know government should not be insuring bank accounts that's that is the problem every time a bank has failed recently the government has reimbursed every deposit so nobody has ever lost anything I mean so you know they won't they won't let anybody lose money but you know ultimately you know the FDIC has very little money and so if a major Bank were to fail I mean there's nothing there so the FED would have to bail it out you know because the FD the FDIC doesn't actually have enough uh to cover the the losses the student loan bubble has been growing for years you know in fact I wrote about that pretty extensively in my book uh you know the real crash and of course the bubble has gotten so much bigger since since I wrote about it but that is another example example of government creating a problem and then holding itself out as the solution to a problem of its own creation and then making the problem it created even worse with its so-called solution you know at one time college degrees were very valuable but not very expensive and not that many people actually went to college as a percentage of the population but if you were the type of person that would really benefit from that education you could get one and even if your parents were of relatively modest means uh but you wanted to go to Harvard or Yale they could swing it and even if they couldn't you could get a job over the summer and work your way through college and you know that was very common uh for much of you know the the 20th century or certainly the earlier part of the 20th century people work their way through college nobody graduated college with debt debt is a function of government what happened is some politicians decided that hey we can get students to vote for us if we promise to get them so they can borrow money to go to school so they won't have to work a summer job or they won't have to work evenings we'll just arrange it so they can borrow money by guaranteeing the loans and hey everybody saw that's great I can just borrow this money right well the minute this happened this started this big bubble because then the colleges instead of having to to compete for students by keeping their tuition low now the the students can pay the tuition no matter how high it Rose because they can always get the money because they could borrow it and normally you know a bank wouldn't loan money to a kid that you know 1819 I mean what's you know what's the collateral nothing but once the government co-signs the loan well everybody wanted to loan money to these 18y olds and they didn't care you know what they were majoring in if their major had any economic viability they didn't care if they were an a student or an f- student because the government didn't care all the loans were guaranteed so we created this situation where colleges and universities could use this Student Loan program they milked it they kept raising prices the students kept borrowing the money they would raise the salaries of the teachers and the administrators and then they would build these fancy gymnasiums and you know all kinds of housing and this this huge bubble and it was all because of this government money meanwhile everybody was you know funneled into the university system everybody was told you have to go to college everybody has to go to college you know whether you're you're smart or whether you're an idiot you know I mean colleges actually had remedial and still have remedial math remedial English we have people going to college that shouldn't even have graduated high school but they were pushed through high school you know No Child Left Behind whether they can read or not and you have people literally who are functional illiterates going to college and you know taking remedial courses and you know they're never going to benefit from these degrees everybody's got a college degree fact if you want to see a funny video that I shot about three years ago when I was in New Orleans I happened to be there for a conference and so I took a microphone and a camera and I walked down Bourbon Street and I was asking all the people that worked there one night and of course you got bouncers you got strippers you got bartenders you got petty cap driver you know all kinds of people doing you know menial no skill low skill type work and I asked everybody you know did you go to college yes you know what was your major you know when did you graduate and how much do you owe and I mean you just this is it I mean there were some people that had two or three different degrees I was talking to people that had master's degrees that you know were tending bar right this is it you know and a lot of these people graduated five years ago 10 years ago and they're doing nothing they have jobs that they they didn't even need a high school diploma for these jobs let alone a college degree but you know and this is all government schools government you know we we don't really have private education to a great extent because the government takes all the money and taxes and property taxes and and now you got most people have no choice but to send their kids to these lousy government schools where they learn nothing the schools are Run for the benefit of the administrators and the teachers unions uh no one gives a damn about the kids they graduate they learn nothing and then they go to college for no reason and now it takes you know five and six years to get these four-year degrees because there's so many people in college you can't even get the courses that you need to graduate so kids are there forever they're graduating 50 100,000 or more in debt they have no marketable skills they take these ridiculous uh liberal arts courses uh they study you know women's studies uh African-American studies you know psychology Sports all kinds of nonsense they know nothing they've wasted the formative years of their lives when they could have been in the workforce learning skills Making Connections instead they got drunk and partied uh for five or six years and now they have so much debt that they can't even get a real job because if they get a job they can't afford to pay their debt back and their taxes so they stay they're living with their parents you know they leave for college for F four five six years and then they come home and now they're living in the basement you know and so this is this is all all created by government this is one gigantic bubble at this point college degrees are so expensive that they makes it makes sense hardly anybody should go to college at this point because the cost benefit is just not there and you know with the internet and the ease with which you can learn and access information online who needs a college what's the point you can you know if you look at the smartest Americans they were self-educated men I mean a lot of the founding fathers didn't go to college very very smart men we're we're we're we're we're self-taught in fact it's interesting if if you um you know go when you go to that YouTube channel and and if you look at my uh my video about um about the college I talked about in uh in in New Orleans if you look about that if you read the uh the description of the video right it's a very interesting description but I point out the three wealthiest Americans who have ever lived right John D Rockefeller Andrew Carnegie and Cornelius vanderbelt right those are the wealthiest Americans I think the net worth of these three is estimated Rockefeller was worth like 600 billion in today's term six I mean some obscene amount of money uh Carnegie about 300 billion and I think Vanderbilt maybe 150 175 billion right you can compare that to Bill Gates who's the richest person alive today who's worth about 60 billion 65 billion right Carnegie dropped out of high school at 16 Vanderbilt dropped out of school at 13 I mean Carnegie dropped out at 13 and Vanderbilt dropped out of school at age 11 so here guy only went to school till he was 11 years old yet built an Empire you know and so you can learn a lot and even Bill Gates By the way who's the richest living America in the world dropped out he he dropped out of college but at least he made it to college but he did not graduate so you know some of the richest most successful Americans of all time never went to college you know and and you know so it's been oversold overhyped by governments and teachers unions but you know anytime the government gets involved in something and also you know it started with the GI Bill and that's kind of where they got involved in education but whatever they get involved in it the quality goes down and the cost goes up we want a free market and we want to get government completely out of education no government loans no government guarantees I like to see government out of K through 12 I'd like to get rid of all these private schools and let entrepreneurs compete for students in the free market because then you got to deliver a good product then you got to sell the parent on sending the kid to that school hey my school is great I here's our here's our graduation rate here's what percent of our kids get get into IV League schools or here's how the jobs that people get when they graduate from our school inste said you know the public schools have a captive audience you got to send your kid to this school you live in this school district your kid has to go here I mean so why would you expect good education with zero competition I
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