저자: BillGross · 외국인
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워싱턴 정치 불확실성으로 감세·인프라 정책이 지연되면 주식 상승 근거가 약해져 시장이 조정받을 수 있다는 관점이다. 연준 금리 인상도 신중해질 수 있으며, 10년물 금리는 완만히 오를 전망이다. 시장 상황: 트럼프 대통령의 FBI 국장 코미 해임 소식 이후 다우 등 주가가 하락세를 보였다. 주식 전망: 11월 이후 주가가 10% 상승했으나 그 상당 부분이 감세 기대에 기댄 것이어서, 정책이 지연·무산되면 조정 가능성이 있다고 봤다. 현재 밸류에이션도 높다고 판단했다. 금리·연준 전망: 연준이 연 2~3회 금리 인상을 언급했지만 경제·재정 정책에 문제가 생기면 연 25bp 수준으로 신중해질 수 있다고 봤다. 미국채 10년물 금리: 현재 2.2% 수준은 독일·일본 금리 등 글로벌 요인의 영향으로 여전히 매우 낮다. 향후 6~9개월 내 2.5~2.6% 정도로 완만히 오를 것으로 봤으며, 워싱턴 문제가 지속되는 한 큰 폭 상승은 없을 것이라고 전망했다. 리스크: 정책 지연, 연준의 금리 경로 변화, 글로벌 금리 흐름.
다듬은 글
all right the sell-off continues here we are looking at the lows of the session right now investors are growing a concern that Republicans are not going to be able to move forward on this pro-growth economic agenda up until now Wall Street is I gotta say we mean pretty optimistic and they've taken everything with a grain of salt they have been most focused on tax reform and health care reform and they have assumed it's all going to happen but now suddenly some of that is being put into doubt as we watch mark at the top 348 points amid news of the president's dismissal of FBI director James Comey and all that that entails including the memo etc joining me right now with a look at how you should be thinking about it we have legendary investor and Janus Capital portfolio manager Bill Gross bill it is good to see you and what a day to have you here oh thank you Trish it's good to be here what a day is right you know the market has been standing still for the last three or four weeks and now we've got a big day do you think this is going to continue I mean what do you think is behind this sell-off right now and is it lasting in your view well I think it's the the stronger potential evidence you know related to Comey in the FBI investigation as well as the Russian investigation you know all I know though about Washington politics Tricia's to what I hear on Fox News but for an investment standpoint it appears that the current turmoil threatens or I think at least delays the Republican agenda which you just mentioned for tax cuts and infrastructure spending that you know risk markets were counting on to justify current prices and I think the summer in Washington is going to be politically focused as opposed to economically focused and that may stall the the markets yeah I mean that's that's a concern right bill that you get this circus going on in in Washington right now and you have people in the Democratic Party that don't want President chump there and and they don't want lower taxes and they don't want repeal and replace when it comes to Obamacare and so they will do every in their power to derail that agenda but you know investors you know I guess as I look at the market right now I'm asking you I mean do they actually think that the Democrats are going to be successful or is this perhaps just a blip on the radar well I think it's more than a blip and if they're not successful in terms of their ultimate objective which might be to remove Trump from office they certainly will delay the Trump agenda and congressional action in terms of tax cuts and deregulation and repatriation of one to two trillion dollars from overseas which the market may have been cannon on you know investors should remember Trish that since the election and November stocks are up 10% and well you know some of that is due to earnings gains and a really good earning season for the past month or two in terms of announcements a 10 percent gain was based significantly on the potential for tax cuts and that may be delayed and ultimately it may be forced fold you think so delayed or stalled not happening at all bill well the you know we'll see I think markets are at levels not just stocks but bonds as well in terms of the low yields that suggest that future capital gains may be limited investors are counting on those double-digit types of returns and I don't think we're going to get it let me ask you about the Fed and their involvement in all of this because throughout Obama's tenure Janet Yellen and company were very actively involved some might say too involved and they've kind of indicated that they're not going to continue that do you think given the environment if we're not able to get stuff out of Washington if we're not able to see economic policy reform will the Fed need to be more proactive yet again well I think they'll need to be proactive from the standpoint of for stalling interest rate hikes you know they've talked about two to three hikes per year over the next several years to renormalize is short term rates and to renormalize bond rates but you know if we have problems here in terms of economic growth if we have problems in terms of the fiscal agenda that the Trump is proposing that I think the Fed becomes more cautious and perhaps only raises interest rates by 25 basis points or a quarter of a point per year as opposed to the 75 at the market and the Fed we're talking about just a week or two weeks ago very interesting so perhaps a more reluctant Federal Reserve there to move on interest rates where does that leave yields what do you think the tenure is going to look like say six months from that well goodness where the 2.2 percent and I think Chris I yes I think significantly that that 2.2 percent is still very very low and that it's related to a considerable extent to german yields and to japanese yields and to a certain extent this is a global market and so the question that you've asked is related to the global growth I do think that interest rates globally will be moving higher you asked me where the tenure will be and now at 220 I think perhaps at the 250 or 260 you know over the next six to nine months but nothing significant and there's an increase as long as we have these problems in Washington Bill Gross so good to see you thank you sir appreciate it very much you
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