저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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Peter Schiff은 2017년 2월 시점에서 금리 상승과 달러 약세, 그리고 미국 경제 위기를 전망했다. 금리와 채권: 연준이 국채를 매입해 금리를 누르려 해도 장기금리는 잡기 어렵고, 오히려 인플레이션을 키워 채권 매도 압력이 커질 것이라 주장한다. 채권 숏보다는 달러 숏이 낫다는 입장이다. 달러와 금: 트럼프의 약달러 정책으로 달러가 하락할 것이며, 처음엔 좋게 보일 수 있으나 결국 위기로 악화된다고 본다. 금과 외국 통화 보유가 유리하다고 언급했다. 금 및 주식: 2016년 금광주가 최고 성과를 냈고 2017년도 이어지고 있으며, 금 강세장은 이제 시작이라고 본다. 미국 주식은 과평가되어 있어 바닥이 빠질 것이나, 금 대비·외국통화 대비로는 하락할 것이라고 했다. 신흥국: 1990년대 이후 달러가 위기 때 수혜를 받았으나, 신흥국이 저평가되어 있어 향후 달러 대신 신흥국 자산이 나을 것이라고 봤다. 미국 리스크: 미국 내 문제는 붕대 밑 상처처럼 누적돼 왔고, 트럼프가 이를 드러낼 수 있다고 주장했다. 전쟁 가능성은 낮기를 바란다고 덧붙였다. 재정: 재정적자는 이미 확대 중이며 감세·인프라·국방·사회보장 지출로 더 커질 것이고, 경기침체 시 조 단위 적자로 갈 수 있다고 봤다. 케인스주의 전쟁·가짜 외계인 침공 지출론은 비판했다. 출연자 전망의 핵심은 달러 약세, 금·외국통화·신흥국 선호, 미국 주식과 채권에 대한 부정적 시각이다.
다듬은 글
interest rates are going to go up people are going to figure this out even if the FED is monetizing even if they're buying treasuries people are going to want out of our bonds and you know the last time when the FED did QE foreign central banks were there to buy up all the bonds I don't think the Chinese are going to be there in a big way they might not be there at all the Japanese the Saudis the Russians the FED may have to do all of this on its own they might have to print enough money to buy up all these bonds which will just accelerate the inflationary uh move meaning more people will want to get out of the bond market so the FED may be able to hel hold short-term rates down but they may not be able to do it on the long end and I think their efforts to do it will just create even more inflation which will put even more selling pressure on bonds but rather than being short bonds I would rather be short the dollar right by being long foreign currencies by being long gold because in order to keep the air from coming out of this bubble they have to sacrifice the dollar that's the only way they can do it and politically that's what they want to do and in fact if you look at Donald Trump Donald Trump's got a weak dollar policy he campaigned that the dollar was overvalued he's already beaten up the Japanese he's beaten up the Germans hey you guys are not playing fair you've got undervalued currencies he's beating up the Chinese so when the dollar initially starts to fall nobody's going to be worried they're going to act like it's a good thing it's not a good thing it's going to be a bad thing that's going to get a whole lot worse when the dollar decline eventually turns into a crisis yeah you know and gold had a great year last year it gave back some of it at the end of the year gold stocks were the best performing stocks in 2016 they're already the best performing stocks of 2017 so I think the bare Market in gold and gold stocks stocks ended at the end of 2015 this a new bull market Market uh I think that the the big gains that we got last year are just a small down payment on the gains we're going to get in the years ahead and very few people are positioned properly you know they they you know even a lot of the people who are bearish you know they're just short they're in cash they're going to lose too I mean being short the market is not the way to go I mean yes the US market is way overvalued no question about it and if the FED did the right thing the US market would collapse but they're not going to do the right thing they've never done the right thing it's the that's going to collapse instead so that will put a floor beneath the US Stock Market it may even go up but it's not going to go up in terms of gold it's not going to go up in terms of foreign currencies and so you want to own those other assets and I think a lot of these Emerging Markets they have been undervalued if you remember what happened in the 1990s everybody was worried about problems abroad we had the Asian economic crisis uh Latin America people were worried about n y 2K I mean everybody was buying the dollar towards the end of the of the the Clinton uh uh term same thing in Obama people were worried about uh Russia they're worried about China they're worried about the Euro Zone breaking apart the US dollar has uh been able to be the beneficiary of all that nervousness of all those worries but I think that's going to take a backseat just like it did uh under under under under uh Bush there's going to be some problems in the United States I doubt it'll be a terrorist attack uh like September 11th but something is going to happen maybe it's going to be something that's brought about by Trump and you know Donald Trump isn't the cause of these problems it's like we've got a giant uh you know a wound that we got a Band-Aid on and nobody is really looking at the wound because it's hidden by this band-aid and it's been getting worse and worse and worse and maybe Trump will peel back that band-aid and we actually get a good look at how bad we're we're wounded and then once we see it I mean there could be a reaction but I think people are going to start to focus their attention on problems in America and then when people are worried about America and now people are trying to flee from the dollar instead of Fleet into the dollar right it's a big change in the dynamic and so I think that we're positioned you know perfectly to catch this wave it's it's long overdue I mean it should have happened a few years ago uh but it didn't but because it's taken longer the imbalances have built up so much more that I think the Payday for being on the right side of this is going to be that much greater because it took that much longer and it shows you in in investing you've got to be patient if you really want to make the big money right you and and you see where the crowd has got wrong anybody can follow the crowd and just do what everybody else is doing right but in the long run that's you don't make money that way you make money by figuring out where everybody is wrong understanding where things are mispriced and then you do the right thing and then you wait patiently to get paid you wait patiently for the fundamentals uh to catch up and now people have to realize how wrong they've been and so I think because this has taken so long and the bubble has gone so big I think the people who were patiently doing the right thing the past few years even though we didn't get to celebrate at the doubt 20,000 party I think we're going to have the last laugh and do the most celebration uh when the bottom drops out of the dollar and reality uh sets in I'm not a geopolitical expert and I certainly hope that uh we don't have a war we got enough problems you know a war would just make it worse you know sometimes politicians think that you know a war is a good thing because a it can divert attention away from other problems and it could rally people around you know the patriotism of of the war so you don't worry about it you know kind of the the Wag the Dog kind of theory and then you have these keynesians who actually think a war benefits the economy because of all the money we have to waste on on military spending remember Paul Krugman was saying that you know we should just have a fake Alien Invasion so that we can spend all this money preparing for an alien invasion that's never going to happen because he just thinks that spending money is going to generate economic growth and doesn't understand that if we have to prepare for a fake Alien Invasion what are we not going to do you know what what resources if we're going to divert resources to you know building this you know alien defense system what are we going to give up to do it what are we going to have to go without you know because it's it's you know we don't have unlimited resources and if we're going to do one thing that means we have to do without something else and keynesians just can't understand the simple concept but but I hope that we don't get into any geopolitical tensions but to the extent that we do it's only going to exacerbate uh the financial problems for the United States it's going to put more upward pressure on our budget deficits which are already going up I mean you know even if Trump doesn't get any tax cuts through it's on autopilot now and if we're going into a recession we're going to go back to trillion dollar deficits uh officially even if we don't get any fiscal stimulus but I'm sure we're going to get something and we may not get it as soon as people think we might not even get the fiscal stimulus until after we're in recession because that might you know provide a catalyst to get it through otherwise there's a lot of bickering and infighting and deals that have to be cut and even you know even if there isn't a recession we might not get the tax cuts until uh until 2018 but if we get some kind of fiscal stimulus which involves a combination of more government spending whether it's on infrastructure on the military you know building that wall whatever we're going to spend money on and of course more money on Social Security and Medicare because Trump says we're not cutting there uh and then of course we have some tax cuts that end up uh reducing the revenue then these budget deps are going to take off if on in addition to that we had a war we got to pay for I mean you know it's going to be even worse ch
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