저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 미국 달러가 당분간 강세를 보이다 결국 버블 후 붕괴할 가능성이 크며, 세계 경제위기와 정치적 분열이 임박했다고 봅니다. 달러 전망: 현재 달러를 보유하고 있으며 펀더멘털이 악화됐지만 안전자산 인식으로 당분간 더 오를 것으로 예상합니다. 과도한 상승이 버블이 될 수 있고, 이후 시장 힘에 의해 하락할 것이라 봅니다. 달러 버블의 신호: 달러 강세로 달러 표시 부채를 가진 기업·국가의 파산, 미국 기업 경쟁력 약화와 무역수지 악화가 나타날 것이라 언급합니다. 채권 전망: 현재 미국 장기국채는 모두가 강세로 보고 있어 공매도하지 않는다고 말합니다. 정크본드는 여전히 공매도 중이며, 금리가 영구적으로 오르면 정크본드가 금리와 채무불이행으로 크게 훼손될 것이라 봅니다. 금리가 크게 상승할 수 있다고 봅니다. 타이밍: 본인은 시장 타이밍에 매우 서툴다고 인정하며 단기 매매를 권하지 않습니다. 정부·국가 리스크: 정부와 국가도 역사적으로 파산할 수 있으며, 큰 경제위기로 금융기관과 기업, 일부 국가가 사라질 수 있다고 경고합니다. 정치·지정학 리스크: 유럽(프랑스·이탈리아·스페인·벨기에) 및 영국 스코틀랜드, 미국 캘리포니아의 분리 움직임이 커질 수 있다고 봅니다. 유로 붕괴 시 유로 채권 문제가 발생할 수 있습니다. 무역전쟁 리스크: 트럼프의 중국·멕시코·일본·한국 등과의 무역전쟁 가능성을 우려하며, 보호무역은 보복과 경제 악화, 나아가 전쟁으로 이어질 수 있다고 봅니다. 역사 인식: 외국인에 대한 비난이 위기 때마다 반복되며, 과거 전쟁들도 작은 충돌이 확대된 사례라고 설명합니다. 러시아·우크라이나: 미국의 우크라이나 개입 책임을 언급하며 긴장 고조를 우려합니다.
다듬은 글
Trump is said he's going to do some wonderful things he's going to cut taxes which is always great for any society any country he said he's going to rebuild the infrastructure which America desperately needs and is good for America he says he's going to bring home the3 trillion dollars US Dollars which American companies have overseas all of these things are wonderful wonderful things and if he can do it wow things are going to be great but Mr Trump has also said he's going to have trade war with China Mexico Japan Korea a few other people that he has named he swore that on his first day in office he would impose 45% tariffs against China him well he's been there three weeks two or three weeks and he hasn't done it yet but he still got it in his head I'm sure maybe he's just another politician like all the rest of them he says one thing it doesn't mean it at all but he does have at least three people in high levels in his uh group who are very very keen to have trade Wars with China and other people if he does that Eric it's all over I mean history is very clear that trade Wars always lead to problems often to disaster sometime even to real war shooting War so I don't know I'm not sure Mr Trump knows he said so many things and many of the things are contradictory now if he's not going to have trade Wars with various people then chances are for a while Happy Days Are Here well I still own the dollar the dollar fortun is having a a a correction now you know all bull mark markets need Corrections Corrections are good I haven't sold any I may have even bought more for all I know no I still see the same thing that whatever happens in the world there is going to be some turmoil somewhere along the line we're already seeing it in some places the euro is still having its own version of turmoil is going to have a lot more this year so the dollar is going to be quote a safe haven as we discussed last year Eric it is not a safe haven it is perceived as a safe haven and and in fact for some countries it is a safe haven compared to say the Euro or other other currencies so I still own the dollar the fundamentals have only gotten worse but the fundamentals have gotten everywhere have gotten worse everywhere except maybe Russia so I still own the US dollar uh I've been around long enough to know that anything uh is possible no matter how weird it may sound in fact the weirder it sounds the more likely it's probably going to happen I I doubt if it's going to be a plaza cord this time around it's more likely this that the dollar is going to go higher and higher on its own bition for some of the reasons we discussed it will get too high it will it will cause serious credit problems for some people because I got a lot of people that bored a lot of dollars it will also make many American companies less competitive so the it's going to go too high may turn into a bubble at which point I I hope I'm smart enough to sell it because at some point Market forces are going to cause the dollar to come back down because people are going to realize oh my gosh this is causing a lot of turmoil economic problems in the world and it's damaging the American economy at that point the smart guys will get out I hope I'm one of them well if it turns into a bubble all bubbles look the same no matter what country what period of History what what assets you know everybody's screaming to buy they're screaming that it's different this time you don't understand you old man you just cannot understand why everybody needs under owned dollars so the signs will always be there uh signs along the way will be some of the things I mentioned you will start seeing bankruptcies by companies or countries that are extended overextended in US Dollars and since the dollar is going higher they cannot repay their debts you will see American companies and American balance of trade getting worse because of the high dollar the signs will be pretty clear they're pretty simple signs they've been around for hundreds of years thousands of years I just hope I'm smart enough to recognize them and have the insight to interpret them properly well all those guys are smarter than I am so I I I don't know I anyway am not short bonds at the moment certainly would have been a good trade last summer as you pointed out they the bonds from made a uh a high or interest rates made a low long-term rates made a low uh they have rallied since but for my money right now as we speak here in February of 2017 everybody is bullish on long-term US government bonds I've been around long enough Eric to know that when everybody's on the same side of the boat I better run to the other side so I am not shorting government bonds I am short junk bonds still if when the mood changes and people are less skeptical if bonds go down and everybody starts saying oh bonds cheated me she lied to me they lied then I might be ready to short bonds again because we're certainly in the process of making a top when that top comes I don't know I'm smart I'm a very very very bad Market timer as you know I'm a very very bad short-term Trader so you should ask those other guys to get your timing well I happen to agree with you 100% the very fact that I'm still short junk bonds it means it's definitely the timing is is wrong no junk when interest rates start going up again permanently when the when the bull market really does come to an end in interest rates government bonds interest rates are going to go very very high Eric very high if I told you how high you would probably hang up now and not listen to me anymore but you know in 1981 interest ratees short-term interest rates in America were over 20% Bonds were yielding over long-term bonds yielding over 15% we've had these long long Bull and bare markets in Bonds in the United States and we probably will again so when interest rates go higher the junk bonds are getting going to get destroyed both by interest rates and by credit defaults because many of them are in fact junk you know the companies are not great credit risk and they're going to they're going to pay the price I'm sorry why do you think governments cannot go bankrupt it's happened throughout history the norm is for governments to go bankrupt over any extended periods of time including the countries which are on top after the first world war 100 years ago the UK was the richest most powerful country in the world there was no number two well I can remember when the UK went bankrupt in the in the night Generations later three generations later could not sell long-term debt the IMF had to bail them out you're not old enough to remember when the French were like that or the Spanish or the Dutch you know everybody has been on top well not everybody but many people have been on top one time or another they've all gone bankrupt why why do you think people cannot go bankrupt well Eric I suggest that you uh do a little more research although I don't think you need to because you you know you're very knowledgeable but if you do a lot of research and become knowledgeable about what's going on in the world you're going to get very very worried and if you get very very worried you're going to I hope get prepared because we're going to have the worst economic problems we've had in your lifetime or my lifetime and when that happens a lot of people are going to disappear you know 19 sorry 2008 bear cerns disappeared be had been around over 90 years Leman Brothers disappeared Leman Brothers have been around over 150 years a long long time a long glorious history been through Wars depression Civil War they've been through everything and yet they disappeared so the next time around it's going to be worse than anything we've seen and a lot of Institutions people companies even countries certainly governments and maybe even countries are going to disappear I hope you get very worried well let's just talk about some of the things going to happen in the next couple of years and then I think we can draw further conclusions they going to be more movements in Europe for instance to for countries to split up and for countries to leave the EU you mentioned the France before there are people in France who want to split the country people in Italy Spain Belgium who want to split those countries they are now going to be encour enaged by the fact that brexit was successful the Scots are going to have another election about the possibility of leaving the UK whether these things happen or not Eric I I don't know yet I I have views but who cares but we're certainly going to have the ongoing turmoil that these movements are alive and well and will be very active and vocal and visible for a while now let's assume this let's presume a moment that some of them were successful well if if the European Union starts breaking up or the Euro starts breaking up that's going to throw a spanner in a lot of people's works because nobody's really sort of planned on that most of the bonds the Euro bonds none of them very few of them now have any provision for what happens if there is no Euro I mean Italy owns several billion dollars worth of bonds suppose Italy pulls out of the Euro and they suddenly say okay we're going to pay you back in L well that's that's going to confuse a lot of people and cause a lot more turmoil you have the same sorts of movements in Asia not nearly as powerful or as vocal yet but you have the same sorts of in the in the United States there's a movement now for California to withdraw from the US and by the way in the US there a lot of people who would like to see California leave the US so may work it may work both ways so when you start having bare markets as you I'm sure well know one bad things happen then another bad thing happens and these things snowball just like in Bull markets good news comes out then more good news comes out the next thing you know you're five or six or seven years into a bull market well bare markets do the same thing and so we have a lot of bad news on the horizon I haven't even gotten to War I haven't even gotten to trade War or anything like that but you know things do go wrong whenever things are softed or bad and things are going wrong people look for somebody to blame they always throughout history wherever we are whichever country we're discussing the first people blamed are always the foreigners they have different color skin different languages different religions different food they smell bad their food smells bad I cannot tell you how many times I've heard people talk about how oh those people their food smells bad and they smell bad too so it's very easy it's always happen that way to blame the foreigners For Better or For Worse it seems it is happening as you point out in the US again but it's also happening in other places Germany France it many places they're blaming the foreigners already again it's even happening in Singapore to some extent where I live nothing like nothing like in Europe at the moment and as you R up against the foreigners most countries historically have closed off one way or the other they close their borders they close their economies and when you close the economy it leads to economic problems and sometimes eventually if you get into real serious trade Wars it leads to bankruptcy and even and even worse you know uh it's rare I don't think ever in history that one country has started a trade War and the other country says oh well that's too bad but we're not going to do anything we're just going to sit here and let you hit us again and again and again no the other countries retaliate that's the way human beings are so if country X starts a trade War then country y hits back and then country X hits back and Country y hits back and the next thing you know countries C and D and E are involved as well and everybody suffer suffering and then as economies get worse more and more things happen more and more discrimination more and more blame and then eventually bullets start flying so no I I don't like at all what I see happening it's there many analogies to previous periods in history before the first world war this sort of thing started happening and certainly before the second world war this sort of thing started happening uh it's been it's been common throughout history and these wars you know when they start they usually in in 1914 nobody nobody could conceive of war and then the next thing you knew there was war and everybody said don't worry it'll be over by Christmas well six months later everybody was saying how do we get into this war how do we get out of this war it's absurd it's a ludicrous Etc and that's been the case for many many most wars if you go back and look some bureaucrat throws his weight around the next thing you know another bureaucrat throws his weight around and the next thing you know 20 year-old kids are shooting at each other instead of drinking beer together and everybody's suffering so no that am I worried I'm very worried and I know enough history to know that these things have often often led to real war certainly you know we just had a president who won the Nobel Peace Prize of all things well he started more Wars probably than most Pres presidents in American history uh America seems to have a a penchant for war and they seem to like to get involved well I do know that uh during the last Administration uh Mr Obama's administration as you probably remember uh we started we tried to pull off an illegal coup in the in Ukraine you know we we got caught at it uh what's her name uh Victoria whatever the woman's name in the state department think they there are several uh pieces of evidence where we know she tried to instigate an illegal coup then of course the Russians outsmarted us and so the state department started blaming it on the Russians and the hype against the Russians has gotten bigger and bigger ever since after we started the or tried to start tried to instigate the illegal coup in in Crimea and Ukraine so yes we we are certainly at fault to some extent and obviously you then when you're caught you got to keep the rhetoric up and keep throwing more and more accusations and so the state department has done that um I know that before that illegal coup Obama Bush everybody was trying to be friends with the Russians rightly So Cold War had ended long ago the Russians wanted to be friends with America that we didn't need NATO anymore who needed the Cold War Etc all the money we were spending on some of these arms manufacturers and and soldiers
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