저자: Dylan · 외국인
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쉴러 교수 기고를 근거로 미국 증시가 명목상 신고가이나 인플레이션 조정 시 신고가가 아니며, 현재 밸류에이션(쉴러 PE)은 역사적으로 고평가로 향후 10년 실질수익률이 약 4% 수준일 것이라 주장. 버핏·버리의 일본 투자와 함께 중국·일본·인도 등 미국 외 시장의 밸류에이션 매력을 강조. 개인적으로는 VT 같은 전세계 지수 분산 투자를 권장하며, 중국 주식(바이두/알리바바 보유 언급)에 대해 저평가라고 봄.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys I'm Dylan and I'm and we're going to look at a New York Times article where Robert Schiller who is a famous Nobel laurate Economist did the Schiller p ratio is kind of agreeing with Michael bur and Warren Buffett in a very specific area where me and Vinnie are heavily invested and we're looking at maybe adding more I am STS all right so are you familiar with him yeah yeah I'm familiar with him he's the Schiller PE and then I know from the K Shiller home price index as well very famous economist yes very very famous dude at Yale which um so yeah there's a New York Times article where he's saying hey we finally hit a record but there's two metrics that you need to look at you need to look at the Spy um with inflation into which I'm going to show that that's actually really cool it it kind of shows that our gains are not actually gains believe it or not and he also recommended something very specific outside of America so all right can you see my mouse yeah yeah all right there's I'm not going to read all this uh this one's easy but basically he's saying because recent gains came after the long periodically interrupted trend of rising stock prices which have outstripped corporate earnings it reminds him of the 1920s and the boom with both uh you know they did not end great and he is also saying you know there's a lot of Doom and Gloom people all the time right um yeah he's also saying which multiple people have reiterated that the gains over the next 10 years will not be near as big as the last 10 years which okay that's fine but this is the two things that were more crazy to me so he said his research shows that at current valuation levels the US market is overpriced on a historical basis given the level of corporate earnings right okay now ai plays into that right you have a company NVIDIA who is worth like two trillion I don't know they are now but a little bit less than that right now um and their sales is it's not even close to that he kind of related that how artificial intelligence reminds him of a popular stock called RCA who went like crazy and then crashed in 1929 yeah you remember what RCA stands for I don't I have no idea radio Corporation of America that's the show radio like you know the thing that you put the knobs on and that was made out of wood at the time like that that's what they're talking about here I guess it could have been a boom at some point from a technological standpoint but yeah pretty crazy they did survive I should say that and then the other red here this is more important he's saying that Global markets outside of the United States have better valuations now and are more likely to excel so if you guys have watched his channel uh Vinnie has a decent amount of money in Baba I have I have a I have a little bit more a little bit more I have a lot of money in baba um well for me I have 380 shares um he we're also going to look at two other famous people here but first this is kind of interesting so here's the Spy all right so according to this we are at all-time highs right we have surpassed this white line here which was November 2021 however when you put inflation into that and you adjust for it we're actually not at all-time highs which is kind of crazy right because essentially inflation has eroded our gains and we're we're not we're close to the 2021 November but we're actually not there even though the Spy showing all-time highs here's another look at that it's close it's not quite there kind crazy fair enough yeah you know it's interesting that this highlights a point for me where there there is an index where it correlates the market PE to the next 10 years return and we were certainly kind of in the the lower corner of that index so you're looking at you know in the next 10 years real returns of like 4% I want to say based upon the last time I looked at that PE ratio number um that kind of supports what he's saying about but you know that's just based upon historical analysis and you know you cannot rely that entirely for the for the future right if you were truly that good at predicting as an economist he would be a multi-billionaire and not actually be you know working still at Yale yeah it's just like it's like all analysts everyone who's ever spoken out if they don't have a billion dollars they're wrong a lot because if you really saw it coming which she actually mentioned this in the New York Times article he's like if I really wanted to 5x 6X my money I would have went into Nvidia but it seemed too risky it's like well okay well I mean if you would have known I think we all would have went Nidia right genius um this is I know that you recognize this this is the 13th filing for uh Michael bu all right so his two biggest Holdings Baba and JD outside United States y boomies very true very true um Warren Buffett he's decent he's a he's an okay investor right he's not too bad um he has since 2019 been grabbing up it's like five bigger companies but in increasing his stank I think he's at like 10% now I'll have to double check but this is as of uh January 16 to 20 2024 um he's been buying Japanese companies because the Japanese I think it's called the Nikki index has historically underperformed comparative to us yeah they had some really interesting Economic Times in Japan it's worth work watching one like the economics explained videos about the Japanese economy uh but they basically had negative interest rates for decades yeah um they have a lot of uniquely J Japanese struggles uh but you're starting to see their economy actually turn around with the point where they've had enough growth now that they change their interest rate at the kind of their their Federal Reserve from negative to to flat so this the first time they've been able to increase their interest rates in like something I've seen like 20 years so their Market is really pivoting um you know with investing in Chinese stock I mean Chinese Japanese stocks for Buffett he's very limited because I can't remember exactly that but there's a lower cap for how much of the individual stocks you can own plus overall Market smaller when you're Warren Buffet you have to invest $140 billion do yes hard for him to find good places to park it but from an individual standpoint I've been putting more retirement funds now into like a VT where it's a total World stock market index don't me wrong it's still heavily weighted in US equities but it also gives the exposure to Japan and China and India and you know European stock market as well uh so that way you don't have to necessarily pick that and you're able to broadly diversify across all these companies so that's something that is you can consider for your own portfolio you know if you want to participate but not necessarily predict which one is going to outperform so yeah I know that Japan had some interesting issues and I I remember one of them being they just didn't have enough youth the the elderly to youth ratio was something that we going to hit uh soon here actually it it did not go super well for them um let me see there we go and then bur of course right this is the hangsang index uh going all the way from early 2000s to now I mean we've done multiple videos on Baba I have a little bit of J not a lot it it really seems like in terms of growth it's them and India that have the two biggest opportunities value right because like the value there is insane where he's looking at all these metrics since 1997 and you're this is basically one of the cheapest times to buy any Chinese equities in the since it's Inception it's just been crazy like how good a deal you're getting right now um doesn't make any sense see your cash flow uh videos definitely risk it's China but I I did think it was interesting that Schiller now is also saying yeah am it just the US markets just look incredibly overpriced so yeah yeah fair enough very interesting ideas but let us know what you think about it now in the comments below we'd love to hear your thoughts yep have a good one guys
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