저자: Kevin · 외국인
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Kevin은 APE 주식을 팔고 AMC 주식을 매수했다고 밝히며, APE의 AMC 보통주 전환은 이사회 제안·주주 승인이라는 조건이 충족돼야 하므로 불확실하다고 주장한다. APE가 희석될 경우 AMC 부채 상환에 도움이 되지만 APE 투자자에게는 큰 위험이라는 입장이다. 토론 상대와 격론이 이어졌으며, 이사회가 전환 제안을 하지 않을 가능성이 높다는 FAQ 문구를 근거로 든다. 내부자 APE 매수 소식과 AMC 경영진의 리테일 투자자 유도 가능성도 언급된다.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here so i got a lot of hate yesterday for suggesting that it's a good idea to sell ape which i sold at eight dollars and two cents a screenshot on screen and now and instead bought amc and the reason for that becomes a little bit more clear when you hear my confrontation or should i say debate between myself and the other apes i was thankfully led in by tara bull 808 on twitter into her twitter space yesterday and was able to discuss what's going on with my opinion about amc and ape on a twitter space that had thousands of you listening now i want to make one thing absolutely crystal clear before we go into this ape is believed by many to be economically equivalent to amc shares that's because of this particular chart that says they have the same economic equivalence however economic equivalence really only matters in the event that there are dividends which we don't expect there to be dividends for years for amc or in the event of bankruptcy and liquidation which obviously we are trying to avoid so really economic equivalence is not something that matters right now instead what matters is that one day ape shares will be convertible to amc shares even someone who suggests that there's a lot of misunderstanding going on between ape and amc and someone who is actively shorting amc and acknowledges this confusion is going long on ape solely because they believe that in the future ape will become an amc share why would you why would you rather have the preferred versus the the original share what like why is one better than the other or you're just counting on them to close i'm counting on them to close in effect that i think they'll ultimately all be the same class but the danger here folks is very simple it's this particular frequently asked question right here if condition one does not occur that is are the shares of ape convertible to amc and amc replies and says well technically yes weird qualifier but if both of the conditions don't occur a or number one the board proposes a vote to allow ape shares to convert to amc shares and two the shareholders approve it then there's no convertibility and the board is under no obligation to actually authorize the convertibility of ape to amc so even those who are playing arbitrage on ape to get to amc might never get that opportunity now i hope it happens and i also hope that in the meantime ape goes to the moon because the more ape goes to the moon the more amc gets to pay down its debt with no obligation to ever take the dilution of the ape shares and it makes amc a better investment but just know if you're playing the arbitrage looking at ape going okay well ape is seven dollars or seven dollars and fifty cents and amc's ten dollars they should be the same you have a market discount that needs to be priced in for two massive problems one it might never convert and number two ape can be diluted to the tune of an additional four and a half billion shares you'll learn more when you listen to the details in this debate that i have with the apes so folks listen to my debate here and let's get into it okay perfect yeah no i i have no uh misintend for anyone here if if anything uh you know i i worry that you know i hate kind of being one of the front runners sometimes at least what i feel in in bringing up uh perspective or questions or concerns that i have because sometimes it just makes it seem like oh here comes mr fudd again and the thing about me is i i literally just sit in the studio and think to myself oh my gosh but what if this happens right and so here's my big concern to kind of simplify everything for for the amc folks here and the eight folks here we've all at this point seen the comparison between amc preferred equity units and common stock chart we've all seen that the problem is that chart actually sits under the umbrella of a very very important phrase and the very important phrase is in the sec filing under faq question three are the amc preferred equity units convertible into common stock if so when and the answer is quote technically yes the amc preferred equity units can convert into common stock now they give two conditions for that and they say in bold italicized and underlined they don't want to get sued for this in the future say they want to be crystal clear this is the only thing in the filing that they bolded underlined and italicized but only if quote two conditions one the amc board proposes an increase in the number of authorized shares number two then investors vote to approve obviously we expect ape shareholders would vote to approve and there are 50 percent of them out of you know the combined total amount of shares so it has a likely chance of passing unless every single one on the amc side voted against it which i expect is somewhat unlikely but could happen but the biggest thing is the amc board has 100 control over whether or not there ever will be a vote in the future and here's what folks are forgetting is that this conversion even if it did happen it does not need to happen at a one-to-one conversion see if in the future after as matt has said uh ape gets diluted 27 different times which i expect it will i think they're gonna fully uh blow through these next four and a half billion shares uh as soon as they can to raise money for amc which is the point to eradicate amc's debt then what happens at that point is ape might be worth a dollar or five cents or ten cents and then maybe what you'll get is hey for every 100 units of ape you have you'll get one share of amc oh look amc share is gone or amc's debt is gone now bottom line out of all this and i'll stop talking bottom line out of all of this is it's really good for amc because if ape fails it literally cost amc nothing absolutely no cost to amc other than some miscellaneous filing fees call it a hundred or two hundred thousand dollars big deal maybe it's even 300 grand whatever that's nominal for this company now what did it uh what is the potential if ape moons and it goes to say twenty dollars and amc is able to dilute the crap out of eight right back down to ten or five or a dollar well they pay off all their debt and maybe they even raise another five billion dollars and they build twice as many theaters uh and they partner with dave and busters or they buy dave and busters i don't know they can do anything they want but the point is ape has absolutely no claim to actually be a common stock of amc that convertibility that everybody keeps referring to unless the board actually proposes the vote and until the board proposes the vote you have nothing and this is why i tweeted the ceo and said hey let us know if you actually intend to do this which we know he's not going to reply to because if you actually read the q a they literally wrote however quote we do not currently expect the amc board to make such a proposal at any time soon that's it so that's completely true that's what i was posting out about the people reading the ak filing but i think there's one misconception that adam aaron can just dump 4.5 billion shares on the market the only authorized shares out of the treasury right now were a billion which the 516.8 million were just issued as a dividend so the remainder is all they have access to at the moment i think they would have to have another vote to authorize more shares out of the treasury no not at all nope nope zero what he's saying doesn't even make sense he said dilute to a cent if there's only five billion shares even to be released let alone it really only being one billion right now at five billion i'm pretty sure you would divide by ten you wouldn't get one since one thing everybody keep forgetting dilution rates those additional apes shares they have their own votes they're not you're not diluting the vote those are additional shares are going to be issued they're not taking 500 apes as a stand right now and delete them into 600 or 700 million there's additional shares that are being added and those will come with their own vote so right now you have 500 million amc you have an ape if they dilute tomorrow let's say they get 100 more ape meaning they'll be 600 there'll be 600 million eight votes each vote is equal the same so now you have left 1.1 billion votes no don't mix them up no one's disagreeing with that the vote is not deluded one vote is one vote there's a bigger voting pool i don't want to speak for me kevin but i believe his entire point in this is that financially one can be deluded and then if you're throwing the hail mary of it getting converted back into the rei like the original most likely that will never be proposed even if the people want it because why would the board ever offer that so but even let's say meet kevin and i are both completely 100 wrong on our thesis of amc on a relative basis being a better bet than ape if we're completely wrong what's the issue of just going all in on amc like what is lost in this scenario if we are it's bad advice it is it is bad advice and if you don't mind i i had my hand up i don't know if you had your hand up but uh me kevin uh you addressed the conditions um and the reason for one of those conditions and i'm not saying that this is the entire reason but that board uh decision being a part of that condition acts as a sentinel set excuse me a sentinel to uh prevent a hostile takeover right if ape goes to the moon and we dump on the shorts or the the market makers on ape and they're left holding the bag then the market makers can't a vote to convert ape over to amc and take it over unless the board approves it so that's part of the reason why you have to have that condition in place and i just want to say you went from asking a question to now you just said you gave advice all right i'm gonna just jump in then and reply a little bit so uh first of all look here's the thing the vote this this idea that oh but we're not diluting the vote does not matter because what we want to vote on if you are an ape shareholder is conversion that's what you want to vote on now whether or not the condition exists to prevent a hostile takeover doesn't matter the point is that it exists and because the condition exists that is up to the amc board who has a fiduciary obligation to the amc shareholders not to ape shareholders the amc board would be moronic to accept the dilution of eight and this is why when ape goes to worthless whatever number that might be uh in the event that it does then amc absolutely wouldn't take over that dilution because they would be hurting amc shareholders now this argument that oh but hey you know they can't even do the 5 billion they've only authorized 1 billion this is true in fact i can read you the exact line it says the amc board currently has no plan or attention calendar years 2022 or 3 to authorize more than this initial 1 billion amount however the amc board of directors may authorize additional units at any time at its sole discretion including your 2022 or a 2023 if it deems as such an issuance in the uh in amc's best interests so in other words they can do whatever they want so they have complete control over ape ape is nothing more than a meme token they're using to try to get out of debt they have two ways to get rid of this five billion dollars rip off people buying the stupid ape stock which is absolutely dumb to be buying i'm sorry i'm just being blunt that's what i feel unless somebody can give me facts as to why this is wrong then that's fine i'll gladly look at them and i've been doing that all day long then i believe that i don't think anyone can really quit kevin i don't think anyone can give you facts until we see price action right so if it runs to 20 tomorrow then we'll give you the fact that you were wrong because people could have you know quadrupled their money right no but here's the thing price action is different from fundamental i would love for ape to run to 20 tomorrow because what's going to happen is adam aaron is going to do the smart thing and issue those 500 million shares and they'll probably authorize even more and issue those and they will rob whoever is quote unquote diamond handing ape they're literally going to take money from whoever's buying ape is going to go pay down the debt that's all they're doing how long does it how long does it take to approve so here's here's my question is is there a demand for institutions and short sellers to have ape on their books oh gosh absolutely i mean if i could short ape i would short it it's a scam you shouldn't touch ape if you are an ape you should buy amc not ape ape is literally preying on retail investors assuming they're stupid i'm sorry i've got to say something here look the the whole the whole messed up thing behind this is they put that foot out before ape dropped nobody in their right mind is going to sell ape when it drops because we're all sitting here waiting to see the shorts get discovered okay i mean here here's the thing even even if it comes out tomorrow that ape is 20 short it doesn't matter if people find out that it's basically uh a bad investment that so what's the fund because it'll go down the shorts will win what's the point of selling you but the point of selling is the thing's gonna go down i mean there's no fundamental under ape the only way to value you the board proposes hold on guys yeah stop interrupting each other like just let people finish your sentences what i would say is say you're telling people it's it's dumb to buy ape and you should go on amc what happens three months from now when the board's like oh hey by the way we want to convert all the ape that we've put out into the market so far and you were buying an ape at six dollars instead of amc at 10.
well then it depends on the conversion price right if you have a one-to-one conversion then what you're referring to is an arbitrage and the reason you're seeing that arbitrage difference right now the reason one's trading for six and one is trading for ten is because of the uncertainty that the board has literally no obligation to actually authorize or even propose that vote they don't have to do that and so yes that could happen and in that case best case scenario but you have to remember you're taking on a massive amount of risk it's like arbitrage but let's be honest it is definitely not arbitrage you cannot have arbitrage in two different tickers well sure you can because you're playing the fact that one is going to convert into the other no arbitrage is about me taking one security and going somewhere else because i know that security is worth more so if i have an amc and i go buy an ape that is not arbitrage they are not the same by today's charts i i mean to me this is now where you are we're arguing about semantics maybe maybe you're right but here's where i disagree look if i buy activision blizzard at you know 50 bucks because i think it's going to be acquired for 94.
there's an arbitrage there the difference is the risk right if it's trading for 50 that means the market is saying this is risky it might not actually go through at 94 bucks the same thing as buying twitter at 39 it might not go through at 54.20 it's the same thing as why people are buying ape people are buying ape because they think it will be worth one share of amc which today trades higher that's my definition of arbitrage we we're we're on the same page in terms of what's going on i believe if you have a different definition that's fine that's not the way i mean there's only one definition okay listen you're taking the same security and you're selling it it could be the same product or anything in this case ape is not amc even though they're worth the same okay so i i do feel like you completely ignored what i just stated in instead came back at me with your definition again i'm not here to argue about this kind of nonsense i'm here to provide no no you were given a opinion you're interrupting me again if you interrupt me again okay listen i'm not here to upset anyone i'm here to provide a red flag if you go to the faq it's very simple you can go to faq number seven how many amc preferred equity units are there and if you go to faq number three you will see exactly what the board condition is if you believe that the board will actually authorize the tr the convertibility then great buy ape if you think there's too much risk that that convertibility won't happen well then don't buy ape just buy amc but here's the thing amc fell for two reasons today one the smaller one potentially the sin of world bankruptcy okay big deal but number two the market actually believes that amc was diluted it wasn't and that's the beautiful thing here because when ape potentially goes to a dollar or to zero or whatever and it never actually dilutes amc you have a potential catalyst for amc to actually jump right back to 20 and beyond okay kevin here there's a problem with your argument though i mean there's a lot of problems but i said something before and you said that it didn't matter but now you're arguing you're creating an argument where it matters very much you're saying uh maybe i am dumb because i i'll admit that i don't understand everything that you're saying but i did understand one thing that you said for sure and it's that you want you you seem to imply that there's a desire for uh convertibility and eight is that not correct oh absolutely because that is what you own if you don't own then you have nothing thank you i just want to make sure i have that clear before i proceed so that's where the problem is when i was speaking about the condition where it requires uh the board to approve convertibility there's a case in which you do not want conversion like i was saying if eight an ape only goes to the moon right stickers to a thousand dollars per share all of that ape shareholders dump their ape on the market makers and hedge funds leaving them holding the bag right so now all the ape shareholders are the market makers and hedge funds have been been trying to destroy amc uh the us the apes we're free we made our money we're done amc does not want those headphones and shorts to be able to convert that ape equity back into amc and then vote the board out which is why the board has to have that condition in place it matters very much in that case and then in the other case convertibility is not a problem because the shareholder base is mostly us and we're not going to vote in a bad way for amc so in either either case they can play out that role is good for amz and the convertibility exists uh if they need it and it does not exist if they do not need it here's here's another scenario i want you to kind of mull over kevin if if you've got a minute when you're off or whatever say they issue ape they pay off a bunch of stock we're deluded the board does vote to convert ape into common stock now the debts paid off the common stock is back amc rolls into 2023 with a good movie lineup the new branded credit card the retail popcorn so now they're debt free pulling another say 1.5 billion dollars in and adam aaron goes oh you know what let's buy back some common stock in that scenario if they raise money successfully and they make amc better why in the world would you ever want to dilute it it doesn't it just business-wise it does not make sense to literally ever bring it back you want really quick i wanted to ask me kevin if he thinks it's bizarre then and and dumb or idiotic that an insider actually bought several shares of ape today i think 25 000 shares of of ape today as well uh an amc insider and really quick before you answer that if you see laid back requesting i can't see requests still um spence i would like to have him up he would like to add to the conversation here so i can't see him but kevin if you want to if you don't mind uh responding to you know the fact that an insider did buy ape today i would appreciate it so i wrote down these questions i'm going to go through these and then then i have to run after i answer these uh because i have a date night in four minutes and i still have to shower but i'm gonna i'll hurry okay so uh number one so first of all say ape goes to a thousand okay so first of all i don't think you are but anybody who thinks ape is going to a thousand is smoking crack because here's the reality at 15 this thing starts getting diluted immediately because that's what amc wants to do amc wants to dilute this to raise cash and pay off the debt that brings up the second question that came up what if as spence says what if this goes successfully great then wonderful amc pays off its debt and then it can actually start paying dividends now matt has a good point why would they bring in the dilution they don't have to but even if they do out of goodwill hey now they're debt free and they'd have no chance of bankruptcy the thing's in a much better place so either way it's just win win win all around if it goes well so you actually do want ape to go up and you do want the dilution to happen because it's good ultimately for amc the problem is you've got this huge risk to the downside uh and so now this question about what about this 175 thousand dollar 100 i just did some quick math somewhere around 175 000 potential purchase from an ape insider so i i don't know i don't know who bought it or what uh what it what the transaction details are or whatever but uh here's the thing my if i'm on the board of amc i'm thinking myself all right we gotta sell it we gotta make it feel like we are the retail cheerleaders send adam aaron out there and make sure he's pounding his fist about how terrible it is we're getting halted on a on on ape and on amc make sure to go and make everybody feel like we're out there for retail because that's going to get them to buy ape and then as soon as ape gets any kind of stability in the market we're going to start dumping shares and paying off our debt because that's our duty to not just our uh our shareholders at amc but you have to remember they employ over 30 000 people 30 000 people rely on amc for their livelihood it is their duty not to go bankrupt and so i think that's what's happening here is this is a big kind of marketing pitch right here and quite frankly they could get away with it and i think it's great for amc that's why kevin kevin i would really appreciate it i know you got to run and i know you have a date night so i don't want to hold you up but i appreciate you coming in and having a live commentary like this it's really commendable especially if you know you consider yourself a politician which i think you're a youtuber first but most politicians don't do live conversations like this and put themselves on the spot so i just want to say i appreciate it i value your time and if you want to come back when you have more time and answer people's questions i know there's like 30 requests and we can't even i can't even see them on my end but i know people have a lot of a lot of things to ask and discuss with you so you're always welcome to come back on and we can hopefully do this again well thank you so much and yeah i don't consider myself a politician i ran as not a politician honestly i hate politics and uh that's why i voted for you because you're not a politician
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