저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
루비니는 관세 충격과 불확실성으로 단기 경기 둔화(근접 침체)가 올 수 있으나 신속 완화 가능, 기술 혁신 기반 중기 미국 잠재성장률 상승(4%)을 전망. 미국 관세는 평균 10~15%, 중국 60% 가정, 과거 Fed·시장 압력으로 정책 후퇴 가능성 언급. 신흥국 통화는 달러 약세 영향으로 강세 기대. 자산별 구체 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
[. What an honor to have with us Noel Rabini, professor. I He's not ameritus when you're, you know, you travel like he does. I don't know. He's such a young kid. I don't know how ameritus he is at New York University. Of course, Chairman Rubini at global economics. Uh, one of the great moments for me was with Professor Rubini and Davos a million years ago where he simply outlined 2007 8 and nine to come.
Uh, Norel, I don't care. The reason you're here is I'm looking May 31st Munich. I mean, a hitter like you, you got to be looking the private skybox on StubHub Inter Milan versus PSG for $29,000. You got two seats in the private skybox. So you gonna roll that? I'll watch it on TV. It's very exciting.
He's a die hard from his youth in the old world. Inter Milan fan. I want to go back. This is really serious folks and it's off the radar right now. It shouldn't be. Brad sets who you started has been on fire. You and Brad sets wrote a book 11 years ago, whatever. Fred Bergston wrote the wonderful introduction on EM.
How does EM affect it? When I see Taiwan dollar go out five standard deviations, whatever, how is emerging a market off the radar affected by China, US, US, Canada, US, EU, what happens to your EM? Well, the good news for EM is that this time around the trade shock have not led to a strengthening of the dollar, but rather a weakening of the dollar.
with the dollar weakens, em currencies tend to appreciate. It's also true that some of these Asian nations are sitting on trillions of dollars of US treasuries because their foreign reserves are very high and there's been some diversification because we've dented how to say the dollar as a major global reserve currency given our unstable policies.
So, people move out of US treasury and sell them and go back to their own local currency. there has been some appreciation and that has taken some momentum. There's also hope in Asia, I think, that there'll be trade deals and the announce reciprocal tariffs are going to be much smaller than announced on April 2nd.
That's also strengthening some of these currencies because some of them were weakening because of the risk of a trade war and so on. So I think it's a variety of factors leading to that happening. How concerned are you, if at all, uh, about the US economy in the face of the uncertainty of all this trade discussion, the back and forth, the back and forth.
It seems like consumers might be pulling back. It seems like corporate executives are pulling back on guidance. They're not sure how it's going to impact their their businesses. How do you think that's going to affect the US economy? Well, there are some headwinds coming from trade and its uncertainty and there are some tailwinds coming from strong capex especially AIdriven and still good income growth creation and so on.
Uh I would say that over the medium term actually I'm quite bullish about US economy. I think that because of technology, US potential growth by the end of the decade could be 4% an increase of 200 basis points and even poor trade and migration policy can reduce growth only by 50 basis points. So the ratio between the good stuff 200 basis points to the bad 50 is 4 to1.
So I think we'll be on the verge of a secular boom over the next few years. So I'm quite optimistic. But then in the short run we'll have probably a near recession by your end. There is an increase in You mentioned a medium-term. You got to be from Europe to mention a medium-term. We don't do that in America.
My basic conundrum, Norah Rabini. Y is we've got the short-term reality within an American political system, which you live with President Clinton, out to the long-term view of whatever Trump economics is in maybe a more optimistic future. Yeah. How do we get is they would say up in Maine or you don't know this up in Maine where Lisa collects black flies they get from here to there.
How do we get from shortterm to long-term success? Uh the way we get it is this year there'll be a massive slowdown of growth as you point out consumer and business confidence is down. Inflation is going to go core PC to 4% by year end. That's going to be a significant heat on real disposal income. So by Q4 we're going to be in a near recession.
The good news is that the Fed is now credibly committed to fight inflation. They're not cutting rates. Therefore, inflation expectations are anchored. Therefore, once inflation is higher, but growth is lower and you have a beginning of increase in unemployment rate, the Fed is going to be able to cut rates.
I think it's going to be a short and shallow recession, maybe couple of quarters, Q1, Q4 and Q1 of next year, and then we'll have a strong recovery because the the tailwinds coming from technology are massive. US is leading in all the technologies of the future. Claims are out there on plan. Unit labor costs on productivity were elevated.
That's what we'll talk about here. Unit labor costs jumped from a revised 2% up to 5 7%. I got a tariff regime of 3%. You arguably were one of the people that set up coming off the Atlantic charter the global trade the globalization mantra of a lower tariff regime. Even if we pop from 145% drama in China and we come back down to like a blended 13%, I don't get it.
Isn't the gap from a 3% blended tariff up to a 10% or 13% blended tariff? Isn't that insurmountable? Probably the blend is going to be more than 13 because my baseline is 10 to 15% for all the world and 60% for China. So the blended could be in the high teens. It's a bad world. But let's put it this way.
Uh suppose that there is an average tariff say reciprocal on Europe of 10% as opposed to 20. Big deal. The euro can go up and down 10% in a matter of months. So is it good? No. Is it terrible? It's going to something is going to destroy the world probably not because currency can move more than 10% in a matter of months.
So of course is a world that is fragmented. It's a world deglobalized. But if the average tariff were being say 10 15% rather than only three, the impact on growth is going to be uh how to say moderate. I would say this will be moderate. Of course with China is a different story with China at 60% we're going to decouple from China and the shock on their growth and the shock on inflation is going to be significant.
So I'm more worried about uh the fact we're not going to deescalate with China extent with all of your political economics. Nor Rubini, do you believe common sense will come to the rescue in Washington? Well, more than common sense. In December, I said there'll be four guard raids against stupid policy like tariffs, market discipline, good economic advisors, Fed discipline, and thin majority in Congress.
Guess what? When the stock market crashed, bond yield were higher, credit spreads are higher. They're always higher. They blinked and they started to deescalate. Two in that game of chicken between Trump and Powell. Trump blinked because he knew he was going to fire uh Powell. There'll be a shock to the market.
So he blinked and therefore fed Fed independence was a binding constraint. Eventually the Peter Navaro of the world were sidelines and the Scott Bess of the world had the upper hand good economic advisors and the fact mean he was boxing by four guards. That's exactly what they said in December. I'm running out of time.
I got I I get goosebumps because I got Norah Roini and Richard Portis backto back. I mean talk it's an academic wonkfest here right now. Have you ever done a panel with Peter Navaro? Uh I've not done a panel. I met him during the Trump one administration in the White House a couple of times. So it's a strange he has a economics from Harvard.
Did you teach Navaro economics at New York University? No no he was at PhD at Harvard. So, but we didn't overlap. Yeah, surprising. A PhD in economics from Harvard. But Steve Miran has also a PhD in economics from Harvard. So do I. How does inter how I got 20 seconds. How does Inter Milan beat PSG? How?
What? How does Inter Milan beat PSG? I don't know. You're going to be there. You're spending $28,000 to go. Thank you. Thank you. Hopefully in is going to win. Lisa wants to know when's the new book out? Um uh I don't have a new one. Mega threats came out two years ago. Still going and all the themes of the book Mega Threats are still very important today.
All the threats I talked about are materializing. Okay. So Muriel, thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it. No rabbin.
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