저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
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트럼프 관세 우려에도 AI·로봇·반도체 등 기술 혁명이 관세 충격을 압도해 미국 잠재성장률이 2%에서 2030년경 4%로 오를 것이라 주장. 미국이 기술 1위, 중국 2위, 나머지는 추격·도입자 위치라 선발주자 우위가 지속된다고 봄. 달러는 자본유입으로 완만히 약세일 뿐 기축통화 지위 붕괴는 없다고 전망. 세계는 미국 중심 블록과 중국 중심 블록으로 분절되며 첨단기술 영역은 완전 디커플링 가능성 제시.
다듬은 글
[. All right, here from more is Noriel Rubini, chairman and CEO of Rubini Macro Associates, who's also not psyching himself out. Noral, are you on the positive camp here? And if so, how? Well, I'm in the positive camp in the following sense. I've been arguing for weeks now that tech trumps tariff because there is a revolution coming from AI and other those and industry of the future.
It's a AI, robotic automation, a semiconductor, fintech, defense tech, green techch, act tech, uh you name it, space exploration, quantum, uh these things going to increase us potential growth from the current 2% to a level I expect by the end of this decade closer to 4%. So 200 basis points increase in productivity growth.
Instead, even in the worst scenario on trade and restriction to migration and we're going to deescalate, the potential heat to potential growth could be maybe 50 basis points. So, if you ratio between 200 basis points up because of technology and negative 50 basis points is a 4:1. So tech trumps tariffs and therefore the US American exceptionalist is going to remain in spite of bad trade policies in spite of bad migration policies.
So in that sense I'm optimistic that not just in the short run but also over the medium term we're going to avoid a severe recession and you going to remain strong and and that you know so Trump tech trumps tariffs and then at the same time like for Holdham it was deregulation trumping tariffs as well at this point.
Um what about the issues with the dollar and the back end of the curve? So higher yields and a weaker dollar and if we move out of dollar as the reserve currency even on the margin how do you factor that in? Well regarding the dollar there are different types of investors. There are those that are fixed income investors foreign reserve asset managers of wealth funds who are in fixed income.
Some of them are worried about the dollar because of course we have undermined the credibility of the US dollar. But if I'm right that we're going to go from a two to 4% growth in the US there'll be a massive capex and investment boom that's already occurring right now it's a max 7 hyperscalers firms in the NASDAQ but even non- tech firms they have to have a AI strategy and are they going to do less investment because of tech because of trade restriction no way so we have massive tailwinds imply larger investment is share of GDP and capital inflows that are going to be FD FDI, Greenfield and brownfield and portfolio investment into the equity market.
So the dollar can weaken because fixed income folks are nervous about us meddling with the reserve currency role of the dollar. But that massive inflow of capital to finance this investment boom is going to imply that any weakening of the dollar is going to be very gradual. I don't think there will be a collapse in the value of the dollar and I don't think that the US dollar is going to be undermined to any significant extent as a global reserve currency.
Yes, the Chinese and our enemies are going to try to create alternative payment rails that are not based on the US dollar substitute for Swedes and so on, but there'll be a very very gradual process. I I am curious though as we go through this process uh Dr. Dr. Rubini, there's been a lot of talk because not just with the dollar, but when you talk about the technological advancements or the potential there, these two aren't necessarily divorced from one another.
And someone was bringing up kind of you go back, you look at the other big sort of the industrial revolution, uh the obviously the digital revolution a few decades ago and this idea that it wasn't just about one country leading the charge. In fact, a lot of the countries that led the charge ended up not being the primary beneficiaries down the road.
Great Britain, for example, with the industrial revolution. Of course, most of the benefit ended up being to what was then a burgeoning United States of America. Is there a chance that we could see that play out again where China and deep seek and everything else affiliated with that becomes the real beneficiary?
Uh, I don't think so for the following reason. In these 12 industries of the future, US currently is number one. China is number two in all of them. at green tech and electric vehicles, the mobility revolution. Secondly, in the past, innovations were logarithmic. They have a spurt of growth. Say after the first internet revolution in the '9s, US growth goes from 1 to three.
Then it flattens out and goes back to two. Instead, the nature of this revolution in technology did by is exponential. US growth today 2% 4% by the end of this decade 6% by the end of the next decade when is exponential you have a first mover advantage and whoever is first because of economy of scale and network remains first and whoever is second remains a second China is going to do well but the idea they're going to catch up with us I think is totally far-fetched and everybody else is not even number three or four there are some pockets of excellence in Europe in Israel, in India, in Japan, in Taiwan, in South Korea and so on and so on.
So in this game about the technology of the future, US remains number one. China is going to be number two and everybody else is going to be adopting this new technology. And by the way, you don't need to be innovating. If you even if you adopt the technology, you'll have some productivity growth. You know, after all, in South Africa, there has never been any iPhone or smartphone produced.
But even a poor farmer using a smartphone can do lots of business transaction, selling the crop, insuring, financial and so on. So the point US is going to remain number one. China is number two and everybody's going to be behind but adopting either the technology of the US or those of China and innovating either with US or with China.
But you're going to get first mover advantage. the second ones are not going to going to catch up in ter in terms of global economic conditions and whatever structural changes are taking place. Norel, do you get a sense here that the lack of international cooperation at least as it stands right now visav what we saw over the last few decades that that might actually be a benefit to the United States or could it actually hamper us?
Well, the reality is that the global system is going to be divided in two areas. one with us its friends and allies and some of the countries in the global south say the Indians of the world they're going to be following the economic monetary trading financial technological and I would say even the military and security system of the United States instead China, Russia uh North Korea uh Iran, Cambodia, Pakistan and a few others are going to be in the technological and economic and trading area of China.
Now if we reach an agreement on China to partially deescalate with the risk the relationship on what's strategic high tech and related critical things like rare earth metals and things that are critical to us and to them but we still do business on the stuff is low value added or medium value added after all we don't need to produce in US t-shirts or cheap toys right that doesn't make any sense so we could have a grand bargain in which we decouple fully on technology And that's the risking and still we do some trade and then everybody else Europe, Asia, the global south can do business with the US with China apart from technology in which they have to choose either American AI or Chinese AI that's going to be a full decoupling and you're already starting to see those choices being made.
Dr. Rabini, really appreciate you taking time for us. Norio Rabini, of course, the chairman and CEO over at Rabini Macro Associates.
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