저자: DanIves · 외국인
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테슬라는 머스크의 정치적 행보(DOGE 등)로 브랜드 손상이 커져 유럽 20%·미국 10% 수요 감소가 우려되며, 중국 성장 전망도 크게 하향. 관세로 인한 역풍과 중국 BYD 등 경쟁 심화도 부담. 애플은 아이폰 90%가 중국 생산이라 관세 타격이 가장 크고, 인도 이전은 수년·수십억 달러가 필요해 현실성이 낮다고 봄. 다만 Ives는 테슬라 Buy 등급 유지 이유로 파괴적 기술 기업이라는 점을 들며, 향후 30~90일 머스크의 선택이 결정적이라고 강조.
다듬은 글
the political damage that Musk has self-inflicted between Doge and obviously everything we're seeing play out, you know, along with the Trump administration, I believe is destructed demand 20% in Europe, 10% in the US, and that could be conservative. And I think that's something that's also starting to show up in China, which is ultimately, look, that's if you look at our new estimates, it's really taken a huge haircut to what China growth is going to look like.
The second thing is when you look at the tariff, tariff's a headwind. There's no way to sugarcoat it. And the reality that a US car company makes cars in the US with all US parts, that's a fairy tale. That's Pinocchio story. And I think for Tesla and for Musk, it's a moment of truth because the you can't be 3% CEO 97% Doge.
And the brand issues, it's created Tesla into a political symbol. Mhm. And that that is a very very bad thing and I think it speaks to what's happened in the stock. Do you see any hope that that image could be turned around and and and I asked that not so much in terms of what Musk can do but maybe the question that investors are going to start having to ask is whether the company just needs new leadership altogether.
Look I mean in the next four to six weeks he makes a choice. You step out of Doge you literally now back to CEO of Tesla. He could still be some sort of, you know, official unofficial advisor, whatever it may be. But the reality is then the brand damage would be contained. It would be stitches black eye.
Will it though? Because it's on him. I mean, it's not just people saying, "Oh, we think Tesla is a bad car." They're looking at the CEO and they're saying, you know, we think you're, you know, from not not not my words, you're a fascist. You're a Nazi. These are things these are this is a taint that you just don't scrub off overnight.
And I don't think you scrub it all. There's no way that you scrub it all. Like you said, there's a permanent brand damage up that's here. But here's the key. You continue down this road, then that permanent brand damage, it becomes something much bigger. Yeah. And the shame is that and and it's look, the reason we kept the rating and didn't downgrade is because I believe along with Nvidia, two of the best disruptive technology companies in the world.
Mhm. But here's the thing. This is it's a fork in the road like for Musk now to make the right decision. Maybe email him with that as the subject line and see if see if he replies. Hey, um I do want to get to some breaking news. Apple plans to source more iPhones from India over tariffs. We're going to talk about that in just a minute.
The Wall Street Journal is reporting that. I want to go back to Tesla though and and talk about China a little bit. Xiaomi, BYD, the technology that those car companies have among other car companies in China. You've spent a lot of time traveling around the world looking at this technology. Do Americans actually understand how innovative Chinese homegrown EVs are?
No. And and actually it almost speaks broader to even some of the issues that we talk about in terms of like tariffs, the constant that we can make things here in the US. Look, China, when you look on the EV side, I mean, China's really front and center because that seems like a huge headwind for Tesla.
Well, especially when it comes to BYD in terms of because think about right now BYD, they're going after Europe, South America, aggressively going after rest of the world at a time where Tesla, this should be the time that it's go time that you're going after the rest of the world. But the political damage, the brand damage that Musk has done, self-created has it's hurt that issue.
So my whole point is is that the longer term for Tesla, this is it's one of those moments where its future will be determined, a lot of it, how Musk handles next 30, 60, 90 days. But this is still a company that gets pretty much half of its revenue from outside of the United States. A big chunk of that was in China, at least based on the numbers at the end of last year.
So if China goes or at least it starts to wither to a much smaller percentage of sales. Can he make up those sales anywhere else around the world? No. No. I mean that's why like it's the hearts and lungs. There's no when you and also like when you look at what's happened in China and we've talked about over the weekend all the issues with tariffs and everything.
China where does it do drives buy more domestic BYD over Tesla, Huawei over Apple. It speaks to the broader issue that a lot what's happened here is that the companies that taken most on the chin will be Tesla and Apple. But but with Tesla, just one last question on Tesla though is what's the alternative if I'm shopping for an electric vehicle and this was the advantage Tesla had for years really was there really wasn't an alternative and not a viable alternative.
Now I know there are a lot more vehicles out there, EV vehicles out there, but not necessarily at the scale of production that Tesla has. No one could really or the pricing price and look and that but it speaks to what's so frustrating about what's going on. If this was Intel, look, these are disasters relative to like, okay, is it the stock?
Is it cheap or you know, fallen knife? Tesla, it's about the massive opportunity ahead, but what Musk is doing in terms of it, it's a self-inflicted wound that needed stitches, now surgery. And that's our whole point. It's like, you got to make the decision. Let's get to Apple. Uh, shares of Apple right now are lower by about 4.2%.
You cut it your price target on the stock to $250 from $325. I want to start with the headline that we're getting from the Wall Street Journal. The company plans to source more iPhones from India as a potential fix for tariffs. A big part of your note has to do with exposure to China. Maybe in the first Trump administration, this would be news that investors would cheer because okay, well, India hadn't been hit with tariffs.
It was between the US and China during the first Trump administration. with global tariffs does anything matter? But that's the whole I mean think about Vietnam, you move to Vietnam, Vietnam's worse than China and and then like when you talk about India, it would take years to even make that more than 5% just given the logistics and the nature of of India, you know, in terms as Apple move tries to move some stuff there.
Look, no company in the world is hurt more from once that came out of Trump's mouth in terms of Taiwan and China tariffs than Apple. Yeah. Because you're talking about 90% of iPhones are made in China. And the reality and even over the week, well, we got to make in the US. Here's the deal. If you want $3,500 iPhones, we should make them in New Jersey.
Maybe make them in California. If you like thousand iPhones, yeah, you make them in China. And that's just the reality. Well, it raises the question, too, is whether Apple really would try to move. I mean, do they have enough pricing power where if they have to raise the cost of an iPhone by 20 30%.
I mean, I don't know. They've convinced people somehow to pay a,000 bucks or more for it already, but that would be massive demand destruction. And and look, my whole point is is that it would take tens of billions of dollars to even move 10% of the supply chain. and that would take 3 years. So that's why the reality right now what's going on in terms of tariffs and the reaction investors look at like it's untenable and it would be an economic armageddon to US tech industry in my opinion set US tech industry back a decade.
Wow. Do you think the White House understands the economic armageddon? Look I think it's easy to stand in front of a microphone and I get it. politicians talk. The reality is when you spend time walking through fabs in Taiwan, Fox Con in terms of China, you spend time there and then you come here and you actually think given our labor force, manufacturing, cost of labor that we're going to make that here.
That is just in my opin it's it's it's massively unrealistic. And that's why it just speaks to what's happening with stocks cuz investors they're not it's this has nothing to do Republican Democrat investors know math and the reality. Yeah. Just and I'm kind of playing devil's advocate here, but with regards to Apple and its ability to find some transition through all of this.
Is there a way that they could maybe increase sales outside of the US? And I bring that up because Tim Cook was just over there in China for that big meeting. Uh he obviously toured a lot of other facilities and and universities. For some reason or another, he seems to have a relatively decent relationship with the Chinese government.
10% politician, 90% CEO. Yeah. And he's done it right. He navigated the first Trump administration. And I do wonder if maybe we're counting him out that he might find a way to navigate through this. Look, the 500 billion they announced is that getting some sort of exemption here and there. Look, and and that's something that like investors are holding out for, but the reality is if you want a body blow and an uppercut and cut the knees off of the in my opinion probably the best technology store in the world in terms of Apple, this does it.
Wow. Forgive me, Dan. I want to go back to Tesla because I'm getting a question from a viewer right now who says that Elon's brand damage has been evident for months. Why did you just downgrade the stock as a result of this? No, it's a great question because I believe from everything we're seeing in Europe, in the US and deliveries going into 2Q that it went from something that was containable 5% to something much broader.
And I believe it was also our view that he'd hold the line start to step back instead he hasn't. So the point is that brand damage when we model that out into 3Q and 4Q that's us basically modeling out what we believe the brand damage is going to do to the next few quarters.
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