저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
AVGO가 6월 말 저점 이후 피보나치 50% 되돌림과 100시간 지수이평선이 겹치는 지지대에서 반등 중. 기술주 전반 하락 속 낙폭은 제한적. 고점 낮아짐 vs 저점 높아짐 중 어느 쪽이 우세한지 논쟁 중이며, 분석가는 상단 돌파 가능성에 더 무게. 1770 돌파 또는 1670 이탈이 방향 결정 기준.
다듬은 글
aker avgo here we can see that the stock uh is trading at a bit of a sideways consolidation range uh After experiencing some of the declines that were uh experienced throughout the technology space into the second half of last week uh as we can see here uh these declines really uh began after uh broadcom reached highs of 1766 uh and then subsequently fell to new lows uh at roughly uh 11668 uh and this really does kind of solidify um our prior support Zone here um as you can see we can just kind of extend this line a bit uh which was drawn previously for this chart uh and we can see that share prices did manage to find support in this area the reason that we were pointing to this Price Zone would be essentially two there would be two reasons one would be the fact that the stock uh really is trading into its 50% uh retracement of its dominant trending move uh in this area and in addition to that we're also seeing this seeing uh share prices uh fall back toward its 100h hour exponential moving average that would be this purple this Rising purple line here so uh to get the 50% retracement move what we do here um as we look for dominant highs and lows uh which would which in this case would come in uh during the June 27th low uh which posted at 15726 uh and then uh eventually Rose to these highs uh just uh just just near 1765 uh per share so that would be this this uh price move here um we can we can look at the overall structure um by using this white line here this would be the the actual uh you know the distance uh that prices travel during that period of time uh so uh as we can see here uh prices are falling into uh this 50% retracement uh which coincided nicely with the rising 100h hour exponential moving average uh so this is why we were pointing to this level in advance um we were saying that you know if we did start to lose some support zones here um you know we would expect uh share prices to be caught by this 50% retracement uh mostly due to the fact that there were uh kind of two combined signals uh falling into the same area here um so as we can see this this uh this uh forecast here this prediction did did work out it did come to be uh what what actually happened with share prices uh but it's important to note you know what what actually happened last week because uh we're starting to see some interesting trading activity here within the tech base as a whole uh on Thursday there was a particularly uh you know negative uh bearish Trading day uh where most of most of the market to be honest was was declining um you know it would be possible to find some examples of stocks that were not falling victim to this trend uh but for the most part you know the S&P 500 the NASDAQ and the Dow uh we all we all being hit very hard by negative selling pressure um and this did weigh on most stocks in the market uh you could say you could argue that the tech Spas was really the biggest uh you know victim of this downtrend uh these price moves um stocks like Nvidia meta platforms Apple uh you know Tesla all a lot of these stocks saw significant declines in a very short period of time um you know and this would be when uh these declines would have occurred here uh for broadcom um so as we can see you know the the declines were were fairly minimal um you know we did we did fall from roughly 1766 uh to 1668 um so you know roughly $100 in share price value um you know but we have started to recover here um and we have managed to find support um in areas that would have been expected here we were looking at this 50% retracement uh because it did coincide with this moving average and it does look like this is working out uh fairly well in terms of uh generating support for the stock uh for broadcom stock uh so you know going forward here um you know we do kind of have to take a step back a bit uh try to look at the broader picture here U because there are some real questions at this point um you know there are a couple of different scenarios that could that could potentially play out here um you know is this is this a prior rally you know is this is this rally finished are we are we ready to start seeing lower highs um you know you can make that argument here because uh the prior highs came in at uh 1851 um you know and the the highs uh from this latest trading range uh came in at roughly 1770 um you know so there's a fair amount of difference here we about an $80 difference in in share price highs um you know and you can start to make the argument that we're starting to see a succession of lower highs here so this is really the question do you think that uh do you think that broadcom is headed lower from here do you think that uh you know we've kind of posted the long-term Highs at 1850 uh or do you believe that uh we're sort of basing here um at these upper levels uh and ready to make another run higher these these are real questions these are these are legitimate questions uh given the fact that uh you know technology stocks have had such a tremendous run and there are many people in the market that are currently arguing uh that that many many stocks are overvalued at this point uh overall if we do look at the indicator reading uh we do have a few different signals that are developing here um if we look at the trading activity that began uh roughly June 25th uh we can see some up upside Trends in share price in in in share price momentum uh as measured by the relative strength index uh but you know at the same time uh we do see some conflicting signals here because uh when when the stock became heavily oversold uh this what occurred this would have occurred from uh roughly June 12 uh to roughly about a week roughly June 18 or a little bit after that um you know we were trading in heavily heavily overbought uh territory here we were we were at the 90 level uh which would be which would be uh considered an extreme uh overbought condition uh for asset so uh you know we did we did start to see some declines after that so it's not totally surprising given the fact that we were heavily overbought for such a long period of time uh but you know the real question here is where is the dominant Trend you know can we rely more on this uptrend to the downside uh or uh you know to the you know to the downside of this of this reading here um or uh should we place more uh you know Credence or validity um in this uh in this bearish trend uh up top what we can say is that this longer term bearish trend has been in place longer which does give it some added validity um and then in addition to that we've got a little bit of a bearish trend within that Trend as we can see here we can kind of zoom in here a bit we can see that there's a sort of a mini Trend uh that's kind of De developing within this broader uh broader bare Trend um so there are some real questions here and there there are kind of signals on both sides um and then we do have kind of a sideways trading range up here um you know and and we do have a bit of a failure here to test uh the prior highs uh in my view I do I do think that we're currently basing here um I think that we're kind of basing at higher levels and what I'm really looking at here um is this is this higher low uh that was posted um you know relative to uh the share price uh levels that we're seeing uh toward the early parts of June uh you know back here um and then we we are seeing these higher lows that are more recently being posted uh at roughly 1670 um so you know we've got a couple of signals here and there are a couple of different arguments that that can be made and I would like to know what people think about this um I'm looking at this as a series of higher lows rather than a series of lower highs um you know both of these things are occurring uh but the real question here is which one is more powerful U which which is the dominant Trend here um in my view I would currently side with the top side um I do think that we'll probably break out of this range at some point here relatively soon um the the key answer to that question will come if we do see a break of 1770 um and then to the downside uh we would we would equally have an answer here um if we saw a break of roughly 1670 um so there's roughly you know the questionary period here um would really would really come within this uh $100 range in my opinion uh so I would like to know what people think about this stock
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