TQQQ 바닥 찍었나? 더 오르기 전에 매수해야 되나?

요약 보기

TQQQ 바닥 여부는 확신할 수 없으니 서둘러 매수할 필요 없다는 입장. 과거 TQQQ가 한 달 만에 57% 급등 후 3개월간 61% 급락한 사례를 들어 타이밍 매매의 위험을 강조. 대신 장기 우상향을 전제로 한 분할매수(적립식)를 권장하며, 자신의 SOXL 등 계좌 실험 수익률(삼천당제약 +21%, TQ -8%)을 근거로 제시. 자신의 방식이 장기 상승을 믿는 사람에게만 참고가 된다고 명시.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Hello, this is Rich Oppa. It seems many of you are worrying about buying timing these days. First, looking at a subscriber's comment, you asked if it is right to keep buying every day even now that the price is at $17 or $18, saying you regret not buying more when it was $16. Judging by the price range, you seem to be referring to TQQ.

02. So, I gave you a simple answer like this: Since there is no guarantee that it has hit bottom, I do not think there is a need to buy in a rush. I will now explain why I said that. First, let's look at the TQQ chart from March 14th to 29th of last year. It rose by a whopping 57% in less than a month. It really surged in an incredibly fast period.

03. If you look at the price level at that time, it skyrocketed vertically from $40 to $60. For reference, the stock price three months prior was almost $90. So, it was a period when it plummeted like crazy from $90 to $40 before experiencing a massive rebound. Looking back at that time, it feels like it has hit bottom and is starting to rise.

04. Therefore, there is likely a high possibility of buying in a rush. In fact, rushing at that time Many people bought it, and to be honest, I also bought it in a hurry. So, what happened? As you can see, I had to pay a tremendous price. From the end of March to mid-June, over about three months, it plummeted by a whopping 61%.

05. It’s no joke. The characteristic of TQ that we can learn from this is that, being 3x leverage, its volatility is incredibly high. And precisely because of that high volatility, if you time your entry well, you can make huge profits. However, conversely, if you time it wrong, you can go downhill. I think that is roughly how you can interpret it.

06. As you know my investment style, I am someone who completely gives up on timing and wins by quantity. The reason quantity is important is that if I invest 1 billion won and make just 10% profit, I can earn 100 million won. But if I invest 5 million won, even if I make a 100% profit, I only see 5 million won.

07. Ultimately, no matter how much I rack my brains to make a lot of profit with small amounts of money, there is n't much left for me. So, I absolutely have to win by quantity, but ordinary people like us do n't really have the money to invest a large lump sum all at once. Taking out a loan carries too much risk.

08. It is too large, and realistically, we have no choice but to invest with the money left over after paying monthly living expenses. Now, this is essentially dollar-cost averaging. If you continue to buy in installments, the quantity will naturally accumulate. Since good stocks trend upward in the long term, you can ultimately make a profit with a very high probability simply by investing your time.

09. For example, let's look at this: I opened up the TQ chart for the past year, and let's assume the area I marked with a red circle is the installment buying zone. Assuming you bought in installments over a total of 15 times, the average purchase price would naturally fall around the midpoint. In reality, it was -74%, but if you were lucky, it would have been in the -20% range; if you had been a bit unlucky, it would have been around -40%.

10. The rate of return may vary slightly depending on how many installments you divided the purchase into and in which zones you concentrated your buying, but it is highly likely that it fell between -20% and -40%. Now, assuming we continue to buy in installments like this for 10 years, if the return on TQ comes out to about 3,000% after 10 years, our actual rate of return would still Wouldn't it yield over 1,000%?

11. If you're lucky, you might see over 2,000%, but if you're really unlucky, you could end up losing money. Of course, if you happened to buy heavily at the peak and did n't buy at all during the short-term crash, that could certainly happen. However, if you buy steadily with a similar amount every month using a dollar-cost averaging strategy, you will likely be able to salvage a profit of over 1,000%.

12. Of course, this is based entirely on the premise of an upward trend. If the price is only one-tenth of what it is now 10 years from now, that is simply a failure in itself. Therefore, if you are not convinced of an upward trend, you should n't invest in the first place. Everything is based on the fundamental premise of an upward trend.

13. Now, let me show you a real-life example. On July 21st of last year, I opened an account for verification purposes for TQ and Soksul, starting with one line at a time. At that time, Soksul was about $18, while TQ was $30. That is a much higher price than now. Looking at the returns from then until now, Soksul is at -35% and TQ is -37%.

14. It’s been about that long—roughly six months—and during that time, I’ve been diligently continuing with dollar-cost averaging. So, what do my returns look like now? Soksuri came out at +21.39%, while TQ was -8.73%. Now, regarding the quantities, there are 820 trillion 1,010 shares each. On the chart, Soksuri is -35% and TQ is -37%, but in reality, Soksuri is +21% and TQ is -8%.

15. Why is there such a big difference? It is because, fortunately, I concentrated my purchases on Soksuri at the lows. On the other hand, for TQ, I couldn't buy as much at the lows and mostly bought at intermediate points. Clearly, the past six months were a bear market, and even though the charts dropped by more than -35%, the actual returns are n't that disastrous.

16. Now, no matter what I say, I know there are many of you who think that 3x leverage melts in a sideways bear market, so it's too risky and you shouldn't invest. Those of you don't have to invest; no one is forcing you. However, if you are like me and the market is trending upwards... I am making these videos to serve as a reference for those who are confidently making dollar-cost averaging purchases with their spare funds; I have no intention of trying to persuade those who are negative.

17. Please use this only as a reference if you are already investing with conviction. Well then, that concludes today's video. Thank you.