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hey everyone me kevin here it's monday august 9th and we've got some market changes to talk about specifically we're going to talk about changes in inflation we're going to talk about coven we're going to talk about evs where we'll talk about crypto and some other things that are running right now like crazy like moderna i'm going to give you my opinions on that and some other stocks and then i'll also finish by talking about the federal reserve and some changes that came out this morning first i want to start with this this weekend i was in las vegas if you haven't seen my stories yet on instagram they're awesome they're really cool check them out but anyway i was exploring there were a lot of things i was doing this week in vegas but anyway one of the things i was doing was i was talking to a lot of the vendors at different stores whether it was prada hugo boss the rolex store other stores any store i could go into i went in and i talked to folks to try to find out what kovit has been like for them essentially trying to do market research and kind of see how these supply chain shortages are really affecting them first of all there was not a single store that said they didn't have supply chain shortages everyone's having the same problem stores that usually have products in stock that they could sell to anyone aren't having those items in stock anymore normal sizes are selling out quicker and these companies are waiting longer to get sizes for jackets or clothing or whatever and specifically in prada and i made an instagram and a tick talk about this so follow me there if you haven't yet already but prada talked specifically about how their favorite customers lately have been people on unemployment and people getting stimulus checks in the past and obviously because the stimulus checks came a few months back in fact so much so that they specifically priced bags around what the stimulus checks were coming out for so like when the 1400 check came there were 13.99 priced bags or maybe even purposefully like slightly higher price bags like 14.99 or 15.99 bags to try to get people to take their savings and throw it on as well or maybe a combination of stimulus checking unemployment but it's really interesting because some of the workers were saying hey this is the first time they've really been able to afford these products and now folks are able to spend money on these products which they previously didn't have access to so they were able to use essentially this helicopter money to help prop up our economy to to purchase these things but this is now also exacerbating supply chain issues and surprise surprise inflation which is oftentimes a concern of helicopter money this is just more sort of a realistic example of how this could happen again other stores seeing the same problem with these supply chain shortages and i know this is anecdotal this isn't like research right i mean it's not like data i should say it's just anecdotal and it's important for us to know that i i also know that some folks were commenting saying hey kevin we know you went into rolex it's common for them not to have men's watches that's fine i get that i just want to clarify folks in the actual rolex store the people working there were saying yeah covet has delayed our shipments that we would normally be getting even longer than usual so our sales have have suffered because of that so their normal sales cycle has suffered because of essentially covet supply chain disruptions which is crazy but now it's no surprise that consumer inflation expectations where we just had new numbers come out for just this morning the july expectations came out higher than expected we have a three-year outlook for inflation now up to 3.7 by consumers this means that consumers think in three years inflation's still going to be sitting at 3.7 which is crazy that's like that's like way more than than i would have expected consumers to think but anyway that figure got revised up year over year inflation figures are currently sitting at 4.8 for what consumers expect and that number held steady but the three year horizon expectation actually went up now we do know that we have consumer price index numbers coming up for july this week we've also got producer price inflation figures coming out or index figures coming out this week so we'll see how those numbers look we're expecting them to be uh not so great obviously uh so inflation's definitely going to be something on the forefront and if we combine this with what the federal reserve is doing it it's possible we're going to have a lot longer transitory inflation than we previously thought so we want to pay attention to this and i know half of you are like well duh we thought it out all along well you know you never know at some point it's obvious like this will not last forever it's just a matter of trying to figure out how long are these pricing changes going to last uh and remember this is what's very important to know as well because sometimes folks will say well kevin what you think they're just going to raise the prices and then they're going to lower them again no no that's not actually how inflation works and it's very important to remember this remember if something's worth a hundred dollars and then it goes up to 110 that's 10 inflation right if next year it stays the same then you had zero percent inflation but you're still at that higher price right so remember inflation is always a measure of the increase and that rate of increase continuing essentially now covet doesn't help and the delta variant doesn't help for example now we've got reports that 43 of florida's icu beds are now covet occupied cases obviously peaked this weekend we're going to see this trend continue now because of the spike in covet cases it's no surprise that recovery stocks are selling off today but what is a surprise to me is that tech stocks are actually not selling down most tech stocks that i'm following whether it's tesla neo and i know some of these are evs but end phase piton square or some of the higher valued ones you've even got snapchat whatever a lot of these stocks are actually doing decently today i was potentially expecting that we would see a sell down on recovery but then maybe also some softness and tech because tech might not be that flight to safety if we're going into a delta variant era and an inflationary era right unless people are parking their money in tech temporarily while they try to figure out where the heck to go which i still think is rcc actual real estate ownership crypto and cash cash for the opportunity to go buy on those recovery stocks when we finally get closer to bottoms which i don't think we are anywhere near peak delta variant fears yet or fud yet right fear uncertainty and doubt yeah uh so cash for those opportunities crypto and actual real estate ownership now i'm still holding on to a lot of tech so don't get me wrong i'm enjoying the rally but i think the market is just confused right now in terms of where to flee for safety the fact that roblox wayfair palantir lemonade c3ai the arcimoto these guys are all up it's kind of a bizarre market it's to me it's a big signal the market's trying to still figure out where do we go where do we go where do we go in fact one of the easiest places that i'm in my opinion identifying that the market's kind of confused about where to go is people are plowing into moderna in fact moderna in my opinion look great company company i've invested in i bought their stock at 130.
never bought them again the thing's at like 488 right now it's going literally to the moon it's up 17.6 here i personally think the market is so confused about what to do because of these delta fears that the most obvious answer is literally right now at least where the market is heading to and that's potentially moderna and crypto i believe that as well rcc right real estate cash crypto but also moderna now i think moderna this is a little momentum heavy i don't know if the company is really worth this if i look at earnings per share you have declining earnings per share estimates going forward for the next five years you've got a 29 earnings per share estimated for 2021 which right now it's at what 488 so 488 divided by 29 that means it's really only trading for 16.8 times earnings right now pfizer's trading for something like 10 times earnings in 2021 which is not that bad of a valuation but the problem is the earnings expectations for moderna plummet over the next five years in fact in 2022 they're expected to go to 24 eps 8 in 2023 and 4.8 in 2024.
so if you go for 488 divided by 483 now all of a sudden it's trading for 101 times 2024 earnings so in my opinion it doesn't make logical sense for investors to be plowing into moderna but quite frankly i think one of the reasons they're plowing into it is a because it's gone up and people like investing in things that have gone up which is inherently momentum definition based in other words it's probably likely to come down but also because the the the fundamentals don't support a long forward valuation i think people are like okay yeah this sounds good for right now let's park our money here for maybe the next few months while we figure this out and figure out what other opportunities to move to so i'm kind of feeling like a shuffling like that and happening in the market right now and the market's just confused about where to go and that's why i do think we saw that crypto spike as well this morning again rcc real estate ownership like physical ownership crypto cash those are the things i'm paying attention to right now personally you know i'm already heavy on real estate i'm i'm otherwise just kind of plowing into cash unless i see crypto dips and i'm still not seeing massive opportunities uh in in stocks otherwise now i will be transparent here i'm keeping my eye on things like uh airbnb c3ai i want to keep my eye on some of these stocks i've got other stocks i'm keeping my eyes on as well so i'm interested in this chargers also jumped today chargers partially jumped because 28 house democrats wrote a letter saying they want 85 billion dollars for charging infrastructure they're getting like 7.5 so i think this is just like fugazi magic like it's not going to happen like whatever but hey you know what whatever we also have the federal reserve that gave some updates this morning some of them i thought were really interesting particularly kaplan had this really cool reference he said look if we taper faster than expected then that's kind of like us taking the foot off the gas it means we don't have to hit the brakes as soon by raising interest rates because we can kind of just like roll out okay it's an interesting theory but practically what that means is the taper might come faster and sooner and remember what jerome powell said jerome powell said if we ever get ready to taper we're gonna make it crystal clear to you well last week and this week like every fed board member and president has been getting out in front of the media going we're making progress we're making progress in fact just this morning fed barkin said quote we have made substantial further progress high level high levels of spending in the economy have existed for some time demand has not yet been hurt by delta labor demand is still very high but we still think inflation is mostly temporary but i think their definition of temporary keeps getting longer which i think is also worth noting but anyway bostic this morning also said we're on the road to substantial further progress uh we had our jobs data coming very well we expect to increase rates in late 2022 which the market's already thinking we're going to raise rates sooner than that you had um yeah okay well these are the three board members oh this was a good one bostick also said he he realizes the 10-year treasury has been pretty volatile but he thinks it's going to pop back up to the higher rates that we've had previously sitting at around 1.32 right now he thinks we're going to go back to that 1.5 to 1.7 level pretty soon which generally isn't that good for tag so this is why in my rcc you don't have a lot of tag i'm still trying to like reduce my exposure to tech and certainly at least get rid of my call options so i've worked to do on that i've been selling calls a lot but still waiting for dip opportunities on on other things which of course if i ever uh make a buy or sell transaction you will get alerts for those if you are part of the stocks and psychology of money group link down below you get 40 off if you join now there's also talk about this crypto amendment finally getting the green light which would require brokers to report to the irs uh what our crypto gains or losses are to make sure we pay taxes on those this crypto amendment does make sure that miners are excluded from that definition and and some others as well a little bit unclear where we're going to be standing on staking but this is actually a good thing for crypto remember what the chairperson of the sec said that hey the more clarity we get with rules the quicker we can actually go mainstream with things like crypto right and this is really what's happening here so these are some updates on what i'm feeling in the market what i'm seeing in the market hopefully this helps you if you appreciate this and hit that like button share the video you
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