저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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하워드 막스는 현재 증시 랠리가 연내 금리인하 기대라는 컨센서스에 기댄 것이었고 그 컨센서스가 틀렸다고 지적한다. 경기는 아직 양호하며 기업 부채 만기는 주로 2025년부터 본격화되므로 현재는 '합리성의 영역'이라고 본다. 상업용 부동산(특히 대도시 오피스)은 재택근무와 AI 영향으로 주목 분야지만, 가격 발견(price discovery)이 부족해 실제 가격 수준은 불확실하다. 연준이 물가 2% 방향으로 진전을 확인하기 전까지 금리인하는 어렵다고 보며, 고금리 환경에서 신용투자 수익률이 2009~2021년보다 높아진다는 점만 확신한다.
다듬은 글
Bloomberg audio Studios podcasts radio news we begin this hour with our top story no news is good news stocks edging ker as chairman pal to's Congress he's expecting rate Cuts this year even as a strong economy keeps the FED on hold for now o trees Howard marks writing this in his latest memo I find it interesting that the current stock market rally began as a result of optimism powered by consensus thinking that was generally of Target investors motiv ated by their belief that the FED would pivot to doish and start cutting rates in 23 that was wrong we'll get into consensus in just the moment the legendary Howard marks joins us around the table Howard good morning to you good morning Jonathan fantastic memo really enjoyed the read earlier this year easy money you reflect on the easier times fueled by Easy Money learning investors into a false sense of intellectual superiority I want to know and I think Lisa wants to know too have we fully realized the pain associated with some of the loans some of the things we did 10 years ago no clearly not it's early um the economy is still good that keeps uh shaky loans aoft uh the maturities you know any company that was uh not asleep at the switch pushed off its debt maturities in uh 2021 22 when rates were still uh close to zero pushed them off so the maturity start for real in 25 there are not substantial maturities this year and you know there are three ways you can default you can uh breach a covenant that specifies levels for your financial statements you can fail to make an interest payment or you can fail to meet a maturity well uh the eager lenders let companies exclude covenants in recent years so you can't do that uh interest rates uh mean that the coupons are low interest coupons are low so it's it's hard to miss one of those and in a positive climate you can borrow to make your interest payments so we're really talking about maturities which have been pushed off to next year and uh uh if you get maturities uh spiking in a weak economic period or weak for certain groups that's when you get defaults they're still running low a lot of people have come on this show Howard and said that this Market is Discerning it's not necessarily just buying everything with abandon it isn't uberant there isn't Euphoria there's sort of a separation of those zombies or those that are likely to default in 25 that can't survive until 2025 and those that can't do you agree with that I I generally do um you know this is not the the crazy markets are few and far between when you get a real soaring uh bull market a bubble or a crash uh those are when they uh stop being Discerning and as we say Throw at the Bab with the bath water uh most of the time markets are sane especially uh a market like this which is being buffeted by good news and bad news at the same time so uh yeah I think we're in the middle ground I've been saying for a long time uh that we're in what I call the zone of reasonableness and I don't think there's anything much to do zone of reasonableness and I want to get into that there's not much to do but a zone of reasonableness where there's a strong consensus and you pointed to and John ledwith this idea that consensus last year was completely wrong so this year you said there's a feeling that smacks of Goldilocks thinking how do you work with that as an investor okay I don't think the consensus is necessarily not wrong I just think that most people can't improve upon it that's really the Criterion um you know what I learned in in school the efficient market hypothesis markets are efficient that doesn't mean they're right that just means that most people can't improve upon the Market's consensus judgments so now tell me your question well I guess that I I'm wondering where are we in the cycle in the credit cycle um well following from Jonathan's question you know Buffett says it best When the tide goes out uh we find out who's been swimming naked uh nothing the tide hasn't gone out we're still in generally generally salutary period um economy functioning well earnings pretty good uh interest rates uh coming down recently uh money available so under those conditions you don't have a test the question is which companies and industries do okay uh when conditions get tougher can we go through some of the more quotes in this memo as well there's this great line and you've said it's an old line but I still love it the worst of loans made at the best of times this quote from you I love Hayek's word malinvestment because of the validity of the idea behind it in low return times Investments are made that shouldn't be made buildings are built that shouldn't be built can we talk about buildings that were built that shouldn't have been built is that an area of focus for you at the moment as you think about prospective weakness down the road well I think that uh commercial real estate office buildings in big cities in particular are a focus area uh for investment people uh the um the post-pandemic behavior of people not going to the office so regularly uh calls uh the sector into question as does Ai and the question of how many employees uh uh you know you're going to have am I going to be talking in 5 years to a machine over there I don't know maybe you are right now there you go maybe this is AI right now at Leisa top me as always but but uh so I mean there there are questions about real estate but on the other hand uh Mo most people won't touch real estate with the 10t pole uh and they may be underestimating the intrinsic value so not you know Jonathan it's important that everybody understand the question is not is is everything going great in a sector or is it going terribly in a sector the question is do prices in that sector reflect the reality overestimated or underestimated I've made a living uh buying things that nobody else thought was a good idea but if you buy them cheap enough they become a good idea and you know if you have the right real estate in the right place if if if you're differentiating and other people haven't yeah then that's a time for bargain hunting so you've got the story and the price of the story can I ask if you like the price of the story you know there's not a lot of price Discovery going on in the real estate industry there are very few transactions So when you say do I like the price of the story I don't see a lot of prices in order you know I see oh people say oh it's not worth anything but where will they trade will if you know if if the quoted price for a New York office building is down 50% let's say will any sellers sell there will all the buyers buy there if a lot of people are willing to buy and nobody's willing to sell that says to me the real price isn't down 50 so we have to have price discovery which it brings us to kind of the fact that the tide hasn't gone out yet exactly and that when the tide goes out then we're going to start to get some real price Discovery because then there will be some people left naked you don't like to make rate projections you do have a model roughly in your head where you say in the memo that you don't think that rat are high they're kind of they're not high relative to my experience so if that's the case you kind of game out a 3 to 3 and a half% Fed funds rate over the next 5 to 10 years what then does that mean for returns just more generally does that mean that they're better in credit and better in your world or are they kind of worse because the overhang that we've had of the Easy Money policies is going to take a lot to work through it's a complex question but um those you know where at 5 and a qu to 5 and a half on the FED funds right now that's a a measure determined to crimp the economy to uh kill off the excess inflation the target is two we're above two cool off the economy until it moves toward two by the way in in in Pal's remarks on Monday he said we won't cut rates until we see we're making progress toward 2% I thought that the word toward was very important he didn't say until we're at 2% so uh I think that uh you know if if in if inflation starts going you know uh 3 2 and 3/4 two and a half maybe he'll start cutting I don't know but the word to toward was important um um the the only thing I'm sure of is that if if interest rates are higher the people who invest in credit instruments which is what we do uh are buying in at higher yields and invari will have higher returns than they have in the recent past so so today's rates are not high historically but they're certainly higher than we had from 09 through 21 which means the Returns on credit investing fixed income investing Bond investing loan investing will be higher than those in that period which were you know really uh poultry how about always super thoughtful the brilliant Howard marks
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