저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
루비니는 미국 경제가 하드랜딩 전망에서 소프트랜딩을 거쳐 '노랜딩(성장 지속)'으로 바뀌었다고 진단한다. 강한 성장과 끈적한 인플레이션으로 연준이 6월이나 올해 3회 인하를 못 할 수 있어 증시엔 가장 큰 위험이라고 본다. 재정적자와 부채(공공+민간 GDP 대비 약 420%), 트럼프의 관세·감세 정책이 인플레와 성장 둔화 위험을 키운다고 경고한다. 중국 디플레이션은 과잉생산품 수출을 통해 글로벌 물가를 낮추지만 보호무역 압력을 키운다. 비트코인은 통화의 세 기능(계산단위·지불수단·가치저장)을 못 갖춰 화폐가 아니며 엘살바도르 법정화폐 지정 후에도 실사용은 1% 미만이라고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
for the entire half hour nor rubini Daman I'm going to tell this story as quickly as I can you brought it up earlier which is the idea of where Dr rubini was in 2005 one night at Davos at the badier hotel I sat in the old bar not before they the old bar they fancied it it was the old wooden bar with dust and you know valer valer and Dr robini and I sat there by ourselves and just around the corner of the bar was a guy named gner and gner just listen he didn't participate in a conversation and noral and I went through the excesses of 2005 2006 and within that folks and forget about interviews and speeches and all that over a quiet beverage of our choice he laid out the next 72 months like nobody I've ever seen that's right it was such a privilege to have Mike Bloomberg pick up the bartab I met with Nora Rini in 2005 or six why don't you bring in the esteemed Rini Dr Rini you probably don't remember this but in 2007 when I was at City Group I was working for uh Mark Bor and Chris Pace shout out to you too we had uh some traders in from tutor from Soros and we were at Mr child's downtown in Tribeca and you were talking about this now fast forward this is not 2005 this is 2007 you're talking about the global financial crisis your call and these Traders were all over you saying you've been calling through this for ever you you know whatever so talk to us now you know talk to us about where we are now in the economy where's growth expectations now with disinflationary pressures kind of bubbling up here where are we in the cycle uh well we we are in the cycle depends on whether you're in United States in Europe in Japan or China probably you cannot generalize it but I would say if we start with the US it's been an interesting Evolution because about a year ago most economists thought they we have a hard Landing then people said there'll be a bump or softage Landing with a short and shallow recession now the Bas line became one of a soft Landing but the economic data on growth have a surprise on the upside and I would say that paradoxically the biggest risk today to the market is actually is a case of noing where growth could continue to be above potential and why is going to be negative for the markets because if growth remains above potential the FED is not going to cut rates starting middle of the year it's not going to cut rates three times this year they could cut only two one maybe even zero and I would say paradoxically the best news for the economy may be the worst use for the market so we've gone from hard Landing to bumpy to soft to maybe no Landing for our audience let's just be clear here this is Professor noro rubini talking actually bullish on on growth expectations on the US economy on us exceptionalism let's talk about some of those other elements I'm optimistic about growth but Paradox is that optimism about growth implies inflation more sticky and bad news for the market it's on a cyclical basis so you were just going to take me there right I mean 75 bips priced in now through year end here in the US I mean has the market got it right or I mean should we expect perhaps the risk in the pain trade to markets being that the markets are pricing in still a bit too much yeah the markets have been always too doish you know uh last year as you remember they were expecting that the FED would cut rates already in the second half the year the FED said no and the markets were pushing the fed and then the economic data strong and actually you got a correction 10% in August and September uh then this year they start the year saying six rate cuts the FED told us three now they move to three rate Cuts Like the FED does but as I said the possibility is that if economy remains stronger generally data on inflation were strong that then the FED doesn't cut in June doesn't cut in July or later it doesn't cut three times this year could be less than three times and that could be the negative surprise for the markets I got to go to some of the gloa is out there and that is a buildup in in our fiscal position you advise Bill Clinton in another time where we measured billions we now measure Dr Rini in trillions we have American exceptionalism we have our technology I've got the IMF with a growth view out three years that looks rubini like to be honest but the elephant in the room is the debt buildup in America Maya mcginness among others expert on this do you study the debt and say it will upset the apple cart or can the debt be tolerated by American productivity and growth well the first two chapters of my new Mega threats are about debt and debt crisis actually first chapter it's called the model of all debt crisis and I point out that not just in us but also globally there's been a rise in private and public debt as a sh GDP in us the sum of the two is 420 per of GDP and while the average Deb ratio for the public sector is 100% of GDP in advanced economy that's the official that on top of it there are implicit liability coming from aging of population and Social Security pay you go systems or Healthcare System also pay as you go so that implicit that is another 100% of GDP now the Paradox for the US is the following one if you're another country Greece Italy even UK and you are fiscally deviant you have right away Market punishing you your spreads go higher if you have exchange rates F why we why don't we face that discipline we don't face it because you have the exorbitant privilege of being the largest reserve currency in the world and that paradoxically means that we can borrow longer and cheaper to finance our fiscal and external deficit but that means that eventually the market is giving us enough rope to hang ourselves even longer okay I want to I want to fin eventually once the shock occurs it'll be in trouble we're going to finish with the thought with Dr Rin and then comeback Damian's got a loaded CH here in the next hour Dr Rini you just talk about exorbitant privilege which is just start the staying of old word France it's Barry I can green out at Berkeley and critically it's aor stiglets where there's an implied assumption our growth rate will stay ahead of our real rate what however you want to measure it that the growth will be there do you suggest our American growth will still be there uh it's a mixed bag because on one side I think that technology AI Innovation could increase potential growth but in my book threats I talk about 10 medium long-term negative aggregate supply shocks that can reduce growth and increase inflation they are Stu flary and whether technology is going to dominate probably over the medium long term yes but for the next decade I think these Mega threats whether it's Global rivalries de globalization climate change pandemics High private and public debts the return of inflation those are all risk to economic growth norin quote the Looney Tunes Road Runner could sniff out Dynamics and gift wrapping why can't we nor robini there starting Mega threat strong with the Looney Tune as well what about the road runner in China with these two meetings coming up Daman sassar you wonder what our intelligence is our knowledge of present and future China well I mean you know Tom you like to reference dollar Yuan which is trading 721 on the offshore but what I like to look at in China is the 10year yield the 10year yield is at 235 2.35% it's one of the lowest yielders problems in the world and so noral I want to ask you about that I mean talk to us about Chinese deflation what does that mean for somebody sitting here in New York City or more importantly somebody sitting you know elsewhere in this country because New York's very unimportant at this point in time talk to us a little bit about what it means for your average everyday American deflation coming out of China well it means uh a few things uh there's deflation in China because there is excess supply of goods Services real estate uh compared to demand and the implication for both Chinese inflation and Global inflation are deflationary through three channels channel channel number one is that China is going to unquote dump this excess capacity of goods in global markets and that puts a downward pressure on global prices secondly the Chinese currency is weakening means the dollar and other currencies are strengthening you import less inflation from China and three a Chinese growth is 2 3% effectively implies less demand for Commodities that put downward pressure on commodity prices so weakness of Chinese growth is disinflationary not just for China but is also disinflationary for the global economy now you could say it's good news but the bad news is that this excess capacity is being unquote dumped in Global Market there is already protectionist pressures and this protection pressure are going to become more severe because the last thing that us Europe are going to be accept accepting is Chinese exporting their excess capacity by ever widening trade deficits with these countries well Dr Rini I mean take me through this I mean is disinflation enough I mean you you've pretty much said it I mean is disinflation enough to move chair Powell's hand to move the fed's hand here in the US and get them to start cutting rates say by the middle of the year which is what markets are sort of projecting right now well U the challenge through China don't have a huge impact yet because we're done importing as much I think what matters for the us is going to be head line inflation and as I pointed out if we're going to be in a no Landing scenario as opposed to a soft Landing growth is going to remain above potential inflation remain sticky and the January number confirmed that and that means that the FED may not cut rates even in June and may not cut rade three times this year and if that happens actually the stock market is going to correct STI that's the biggest risk to the market we had globalization with a few people discontented I would suggest many more are discontented including the leadership in Beijing what's the next globalization look like for you well I think we're in a process of gradually less globalization we went to hyper globalization now even if we don't have real de globalization we're going to have FR Shoring we'll have reshoring we'll talk more about fair trade and security trade rather than a free trade we'll have some fragmentation of the global economy we'll have just in case rather than just in time Global Supply chains we'll have reshoring and fr Shoring rather than offshoring we'll have emphasis on economic security rather than efficiency so a process call it of drisking or decoupling but is ongoing it's going to continue over time just start just because of the huge response out it particularly on YouTube live chat nor Robin right now on the dash of Bitcoin the idea of it's in ETFs we can put it in our retirement accounts I believe it's a limit Li mited scarce resource obviously the price is going up what's the quality of the price increase in Bitcoin right now the nature of it listen Bitcoin used to be 10,000 went to a peck of 69,000 late in 20121 then fell to 15,000 now is above 60,000 it's so volatile they go higher it can go lower and by the way not just Bitcoin but the entire crypto space they call them cryptocurrencies but anybody who knows anything about currencies money monetary policy knows these are not currencies for something to be a currency has to be a unit of account nothing is price in Bitcoin has to be a scalable means of payment you can do only six transaction per second with Bitcoin you can do 50,000 with the VISA network has to be a stable store of value can go up by 10% one day can go down 20% another day and it's to be a single numerator so we can compare prices of different goods and services it's not the unit of account it's not the scale or means of payment it's not the stable store of value is not a single numer R so whatever they are you cannot call them currencies they are not currencies no I I agree with that so that's that's a fact and even the supporters of Bitcoin don't anymore believe that is going to become a means of payment nobody's using it as a means of payment nowhere around the world even El Salvador where Bitcoin was made legal tender the amount of transactions on goods and services are using Bitcoin is less than 1% this is a legal tender people are not going to use it for uh transactions period yeah I I mean Dr Rini you said El Salvador you're taking me exactly where I want to go I want to talk about the geopolitical risk premium that is or is not embedded in Market specifically as it relates to these elections we're seeing right I mean we've seen quite a few elections already year to date and we're going to see some big ones coming through I'm thinking India I'm thinking South Africa I mean talk to us a little bit about election risk in the market should investors be concerned about that well there are tons of Elections even in important countries but let's say in India m is going to get re elected the only issu is by which margin uh and I think that the global impact even of stuff happening in South Africa is going to be minimal they see I have less power or more power we don't know the only election that matters for the global economy and Market is the US election and it matters not just because of geopolitics of what are going to be the foreign policy of trump relative to Biden on China on Russia Ukraine on Europe on the Middle East but most importantly is his Economic Policy yes said I'm going to impose a 10% tariff on All Imports coming us when the average tariff is 2% he said I'm going to impose tariffs on China of up to 60% and he he said well I'm going to also renew the tax cuts that I pass it's another $1.5 trillion deficit over the next decade when the deficit are out of control so I think the fiscal risk and the trade protection risk could really derail the markets and slow down economic growth and increase inflation that's the big is coming from Trump I got 42 seconds what was a book when you were a kid that got you going in economics and international finance what was the book that changed nor robini when you were a kid well there was a book by Jeffrey saaks that was on the stack flation of the 1970s when we had the old shock of 73 and 79 was the first book that spoke about the term station and was the period of time exactly where you had lower growth recession and inflation and now we're facing years later similar St repression put that book out on Twitter and Linkedin and I've got another Jeff Sex book where he was way out front on the dumbing down of America no robini thank you it's been way too long now that you're Professor ameritus he's holding Court he's over at the St reges breakfast or the Regency Hotel breakfast he's he's very aitous
Comments 0