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조엘 그린블랫의 팟캐스트 내용을 소개하는 교육형 영상이다. 결론: 단순한 가치투자 원칙과 인내, 그리고 역량 있는 CEO 검증이 그린블랫 같은 투자자의 핵심이다. 그린블랫은 1985년 700만 달러로 고담 자산운용을 시작해 1985~1994년 연평균 약 50% 수익을 냈다고 소개된다. 자본재구조화, 분사, 파산 기업 투자 등이 주 전략이다. 첫째, 투자 원칙은 단순함이다. 기업 가치를 평가하고 가치보다 싸게 사면 장기적으로 시장이 공정가치로 수렴한다는 논리다. 둘째, 투자 열정과 실사가 필요하다. 사업보고서(10-K)를 많이 읽고 사설탐정처럼 기업 내막을 파고들어야 한다는 주장이다. 셋째, 공통점은 인내다. 좋은 기회(pitch)가 올 때까지 기다리고, 기다림을 못 견디면 고평가 종목을 사게 된다고 경고한다. 넷째, 다각도 관점이 중요하다. 같은 기업도 다른 시각으로 보면 다르게 이해할 수 있다는 예로 테슬라가 언급되지만 투자 추천은 아니라고 명시한다. 다섯째, 확신 있는 종목에는 충분한 비중을 실어야 한다. 2% 같은 소액 비중은 포트폴리오에 영향이 없어 실수라고 본다. 큰 비중은 대박 종목이 아니라 손실 위험이 작다고 판단한 종목에 싣는다는 점도 강조한다. 여섯째, 경영진 검증이다. 과거 자본배분 실적, 자기자본이익률(ROE), 성장 이력, 경영진 발언과 실제 행동의 일치 여부를 10-K로 확인해야 한다고 한다. 마지막으로 진행자는 그린블랫에 대한 후속 영상을 예고한다.
다듬은 글
a great video for you guys today we're talking about joel greenblatt yes you're talking about joel greenblatt legendary value investor and man i'm gonna make like a little series i'm gonna want to talk about the best investors that no one's really getting into no one's really talking about and these guys are earning like 50 a year 35 a year when they first started out so we have to learn from the best investors and we got to start cloning and think about these guys more so in this video i'm going to talk about a podcast that joel greenblatt did probably like six seven months ago but i want to get into it what he said what makes a great investor and that's what we're gonna get into in this video we're gonna talk about it so i'm gonna go through the amazing points that he made in this video and we need to do this we need to go over this video because we need to implement this type of thinking this type of thought process if we want to make 50 a year 40 a year if we want to make those monster games so we got to follow people like warren buffett charlie monger joel greenblatt just amazing investors like that and so that's what we're doing in this video joel greenblatt started gotham asset management with seven million dollars at 19.85 and from 1985 until 1994 he averaged 50 percent a year doing capital restructure deals doing spin-offs and actually bankruptcies and investing in those type of opportunities that he was finding in the market following under joel greenblatt's ideas and actually his investment process is key to getting these returns so in this video we're gonna talk about it man so we're gonna start by talking about the first question this interviewer asked joel greenblatt so the first question was what have you learned from evaluating other investors how to distinguish between luck and skill basically what joel greenblatt said regarding this question was that you want to be able to keep it very simple and we've heard so many investors say this number one charlie warren buffett says they want to get cinches this is basically want to get these companies that you don't really have to think about you just have to you just know it's a great investment at a great time at a great price you just know it you don't have to do all this crazy investigation you just make it very simple so that's one of greenblatt's main concept is this making it simple and that's just valuing the business and buying it at a cheaper price than what the value is as you do a discounted cash flow analysis on the company and you know over time just over time the company is gonna follow its value you might it might not happen in a month two months a year but over time the market will reevaluate that company to its fair value because if it didn't then the market is just random it's not accurate so over time we already know that the market is accurate over a period of five ten years we know the market is accurate so that's how we're gonna just make investing super simple for us it's just making sure we understand the company we can see the future of this company as projections and we just put a value on it and buy it at a cheaper price so that's number one that's what joel greenblatt is all about is just keeping it very very simple number two you need to have a passion for basically investing value investing because as he said is that you're gonna honestly just go deeper into these companies trying to figure out what's going on what is this company doing and it's just gonna help the research process because if you don't have a passion for investing you're just gonna pooh-pooh it you're just gonna put it on the side you're not really gonna investigate you're not gonna really do your due diligence and finding value in these companies so it's important to have some kind of passion for investing you do a lot of reading you read a lot of 10ks all of that good stuff is super important in this value investing journey what did lilu said about value investing and having a passion for investing you have to be like a private investigator and that's what talks about a private investigator finding the ins and outs of the company what's making this company tick so that's how you're going to be when you're getting into this basically this investing space you've got to be like a private investigator figuring out if this company is worth it if it's going to go broke if it's doing bad things with the company and it's not going to go far etc right so number one we got to keep it super super simple and just that's just basically valuing the business and buying it at a cheaper price and we can wait for that value to reach that price we're gonna we're gonna wait basically that value is gonna reach that price eventually we don't know when but it eventually will so the second question that i liked and how joel greenblatt answered was what do you what do great investors have in common and this was a great question because this gets down to the crux of things and the number the first thing he said was patience so he goes into an example of basically what warren buffett always says about ten williams the science of hitting is that you can wait for as many pitches as you want in investing it doesn't matter how many pitches go by you how many companies go by you you can wait for the one simple pitch that you understand and you know how it works and you know the value of it and that's all you need to hit that one out of the park it doesn't matter if the other 30 succeed all you need is a couple of these pitches to hit out of the park so you can be as patient as you want as you watch those pitches go by until the one that you understand the one that you know you can hit that out of the park and that's what the number one thing these investors have in common so in that journey you can't get frustrated and that's the thing you can't get frustrated waiting for that pitch because sometimes like in warren buffett's annual letters he'll go by and say that he never made an investment for that year or another year go by he doesn't make an investment again so if you just get frustrated you're going to do bad things you're going to buy companies that are overvalued like the price is not there and you're just gonna do bad things because you have money on the side and you cannot patiently wait so that's one thing the second thing is super key and this is for joel greenblatt he said that it's super important to look at stuff in like different angles and different views and this is gonna really help me because when you listen to too much warren buffett or charlie munger i feel like you're very singular focused you're really old school-minded but joel greenblatt puts it in perspective you gotta find opportunities in different ways and different situations that someone else might not see it or might not understand it and you're going to have to be able to take that contrary in view if you understand that company in a different way so my example would be something like tesla in my opinion i'm not saying it was the right investment but i feel like in my opinion if i looked at tesla in a different way i might have understand tesla better so in my view i'm just thinking about oh this company is overvalued it's a car company low margin company low margin dist or margin that it has gonna be so much issues blah blah blah if i looked at it at a 40 000 feet view just overhead and how i think of something differently maybe i would have said like oh i'm noticing a lot more teslas are being driven the brand is super strong they don't even have to advertise like elon musk is a visionary i would have looked at it differently instead of just the old-school minded value way of the oh this company is not this doesn't like the metrics don't uh matter but we understand that tesla is gonna take over a larger market share and it's like the electric vehicle market is just booming and people are just head over heels for teslas it's almost like an apple cult so maybe if i looked at it in like a different view i might have understood tesla better not saying i would have invested in it but i would have just understood the company in a different angle and that's what you need as an investor it's just looking at opportunities that someone doesn't see and you see it in a different light in a different view so that's key and that's what these investors have in common that they do something different the second last question that i really liked in this interview the question was asked about how do you think about position waiting and this was an amazing question he answered this really good kind of again putting my perspective in a different light he said that sometimes people make a mistake of not putting enough in their best ideas and that's a huge mistake imagine you you knew about google and you only put two percent of your portfolio even though you knew you had a huge edge in google that's a mistake because you're not gonna make a lot of money you're not gonna have a good sized position in that company he said that if you have a good understanding of a business in a simple it's in your circle of confidence put a nice size like 10 15 whatever it is but it's a mistake to not put money in a good investment you have to be okay with taking a big loss in some of these companies because they're not all gonna work out but if you don't if you put one percent that's not gonna make a dent in your portfolio it's not gonna move the needle so that's a huge mistake when you understand a company it's simple and you know the value is there and you just only put two percent that's a huge mistake what he also said too is that his best companies the companies that he had the most weight in he looks it from a top like a top-down perspective so the companies that he has the most weighting in is not the companies that are going to go 5-10 x it's the companies that he knows are not gonna lose that much they're not gonna it's not a big risk so that's how he thinks about it and that's a good way to think about it because most people think about it oh if this company can make five 10x my money that's when i'm gonna put my huge position in it but the way joel thinks about it is if this company i know for a fact this company i won't lose that much money on it and that's how he gets his weighting his conviction in these companies so that's a different way to look at waiting in your portfolio how to look at it how to weight it properly so that's a good idea to have in your mind and the last question that i really enjoyed was about management and basically the question is about how can we trust manager how is it reliable if how do we know about good management and just quick and easy joe greenblatt said that you just have to understand you have to look at the history because all these ceos got to their place for a reason they're all like good sales people they're all talented all have good educations so what's gonna like differentiate themselves like as a capital allocators like what's going to do that and the thing is that you have to have a history what has a ceo done like in the past has he been a good capital allocator is a return on equity good is he making good investments is the um company growing like look at what the company has done in the past and that's how that's when you got to read the 10ks look what the management says has the management been truthful about what it's saying and what it's doing like are those in line and that's how we find out if the management's good so if the management hasn't been in line with what he's saying if all the capital allocation decisions were bad you don't expect that to just be good going into the future we can't trust that so it's good to have a history of that ceo and what he's done in the past so we can know if he's a good capital allocator and if he earth capital is secure in good hands so that's how he finds out what good management is so guys that is it for this video joel greenblatt is an amazing investor there's so much to learn from him i'm gonna probably do another video on him but that's it
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