저자: Just-InvestToday · 외국인
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결론: 아마존(AMZN)을 현금성 자산처럼 15~20% 편입하는 것을 고려하며, 가격이 약 3,000달러 부근(2,900 수준 언급)까지 내려오면 매수 의향이 있다고 밝힘. 주가 흐름: 최근 1년간 박스권(횡보)이었고 상승률이 5% 수준에 그쳐 돌파 가능성이 있다고 봄. 실적 발표를 앞두고 있으며, 실적이 나쁘거나 시장 반응이 부정적이면 그때 매수를 고려. 매수 조건: 주가 약 3,000달러 이하(2,900 언급 가능) 도달 시 포트폴리오의 15~20%를 현금 대용으로 편입. 도달하지 않으면 다른 종목으로 이동. 성장 근거: 매출 성장률 약 20~30% 이상 지속. 광고 사업이 빠르게 성장해 페이스북·구글 수준까지 거론. 광고 효율 개선으로 광고 시장점유율 확대. 전자상거래 점유율: 미국 전자상거래 시장에서 아마존 점유율 약 38%로 2위 월마트(4.3%), 이베이(4.7%) 등과 큰 격차. 북미 전자상거래 시장은 연 11% 성장 전망, 팬데믹이 성장을 가속. 사업 확장: 약국, 물류(풀필먼트), 라이브 스트리밍 커머스 진출. 트위치 관련 언급은 적어 의문 제기. 국제 사업: 2016~2018년 영업적자가 지속되다 2020년 흑자 전환(7억 1,700만 달러)이며 향후에도 개선될 것으로 봄. AWS: 클라우드 시장점유율 약 32%로 1위, 2위 마이크로소프트 약 20%. 시장 자체가 커서 경쟁사들과 공존 가능하다고 봄. 리스크: 노조 결성 확대로 인건비 상승과 마진 압박 우려, 인플레이션, 공급망 문제, 물류 인력 확충 비용, 설비투자(capex) 증가로 잉여현금흐름 감소. 다만 투자 완료 후 잉여현금흐름 회복을 기대. 출연자 전망: 아마존은 현 수준에서 매수 대상이 아니며 3,000달러 부근 조정 시에만 현금성 자산으로 편입 고려. 실적 발표 결과와 시장 반응에 따라 대응.
다듬은 글
amazon yes we have to talk about amazon man this stock has been consolidating for at least a year honestly look at this the whole year has been consolidated only a five percent increase that's insane so this got me thinking i might make amazon my new cash position this reminds me of what charlie said about alibaba he said alibaba is my cash position and i've got me thinking i'm like yo why not make amazon my cash position it'd be amazing cash position almost like berkshire to hold it just in case to watch your money grow and you have it just as a safety net you can sell it off you can buy something else when you need the money but amazon is a good portion a good company to have like what 15 twenty percent of your cash is sitting there and has so much potential for growth and it's not gonna go like how far can this company go down with so much potential so that's what i'm seeing this is what i might wanna do because look it's been consolidating for a year that's insane so it's due for a breakout season and with earnings coming i'm only going to do this if this out if um amazon gets to what thousand 3000 hundred around that mark if earnings turn out to be bad or whatever the market doesn't like it that's when i'm actually gonna probably put some money into it put fifteen twenty percent just as a cash hold for now so that's how what i'm seeing tell me what you think guys but we have to review why am i doing this what is the potential for amazon and i see massive potential look what amazon has been doing man this is not a joke revenue growth 27 30 30 20 37 and that's only getting stronger and getting bigger we understand what amazon's trying to do they're going into so many different fields they're going into the pharmacy they're actually doing more fulfillment and think about this too and oh one thing too they're doing live streaming on amazon which they're gonna be able to sell more almost like what they're doing over in china so you can see amazon trying to take a play from china from alibaba from jd.com and all those companies down there so you see how their growth can still sustain but i don't understand how come no one talks about twitch and they're 10k they don't talk about twitch and like their earnings call i don't really see them talking about twitch is twitch even a part of amazon anymore like i feel like they don't even hint at that even though the gaming sector is getting so big so large and twitches at the forefront twitching youtube like how are they not talking about that i don't know if it's just in my head if i'm not seeing it but i don't know what's going on i don't see them barely if they talk about twitch it's like nothing it's just they just say streaming and then that's all like it's just weird how they don't talk about twitch even though that can be a huge part of their future growth and they have uh revion they invested in a lot of that and that's gonna ipo about 80 billion maybe in the future next year so they have so much underlying businesses within amazon and they have still so much future growth ahead of them so just look at the north american market that's supposed to be growing at 11 annual the north american e-commerce market is expected to grow 11 annually forecasted man it's gonna be like a one point it's gonna be like an eight trillion dollar market and then kovid the pandemic helped the situation even further giving the huge growth to amazon amazon already has a huge amazon already has a huge part of the market so just look at this chart right now top 10 e-commerce retailers in the us in 2020 look what amazon is if this is not a competitive advantage i don't know what is they have 38 of the e-commerce market and with the whole pandemic that just enhanced it even more walmart's at 4.3 ebay 4.7 3.7 and that's nothing we see their advertising business growing at 50 year-over-year and actually amazon advertising is doing it's gonna probably be doing better than think about it than pretty much facebook or do i even want to say it google because advertising on amazon has been coming more efficient and their market in advertising is growing it was like 7 and now it's growing to 10 and that market is growing big because they see the advantages of actually having your product on amazon because amazon is one of the most searched up websites to use if you're trying to find a product so why wouldn't you use amazon as your advantage if you're trying to sell products so you just got to think about it in that terms so the e-commerce market is growing amazon is growing in this e-commerce market at 20 clip 30 clip their international market think about this too we've seen the international market in 2016 17 and 18.
it's been growing at a healthy clip around 24 23 21 but that's not it they were losing money during those times like the operating income wasn't they were losing money look at that 1.2 billion 3 billion 2 billion they're losing money until 2020 when the whole pandemic happened and then they're up 717 million dollars and that's gonna probably continue growing it's gonna come back down a little bit but that just helps boost the whole international segment and then we already know the north american segment is still growing fast so this is why amazon is just primed to explode soon and it's been consolidating for a year so you can just see why i can have this as a cash position if it goes under like 3 000 maybe like 2 900 whatever if it doesn't get there then i probably will move on but if it does i'm willing to have it as a cash position and when i'm talking about aws just look at this chart man aws this is the worldwide market share 32 microsoft coming in 20 percent that's a huge that's huge growth and honestly microsoft is doing a really good job but the infrastructure for cloud the 129 billion and this is growing at like 20 15 this is to be growing really fast and amazon's prime to take more market share google cloud alibaba all these companies are coming up but the market is so big for these companies i don't think it matters i think everyone can eat in this whole field so don't get too worried that there's so many competitors amazon is still going to be eating really good in this whole cloud space and they're already the market leader that's what i think about amazon man and honestly the negatives that i see with amazon are like unions the unions are going to come in they're going full force on amazon they want higher pay so the unions are going to have some a lot of benefits and a lot of negatives i'm going to say negatives to the company because you know how unions are and you know how strong unions are and what they demand and all these strikes and stuff that can happen when you become a union it's good for the workers but bad for the company and on top of that you got higher wages so that's going to eat on amazon margins and we understand inflation so all these like small market products are actually getting expensive is that going to affect the business who knows supply chain issues you know amazon is always going to deal with supply chain issues as they need more workers more people more drivers and they're dealing with all the supply chain issues and disruptions so how is that going to affect amazon and when you think about amazon 2 they have to do more fulfillment they have to do a lot more things so they're spending a lot of money on maintenance capex on expanding the business too so expanding their business cat-back they're spending a lot on just growing the business still so they still have a lot of fulfillment duties they still trying to develop aws like they're still developing a lot of things so their free cash flow isn't getting as big as they can right now and they're using a lot of that up to grow the business so you're also gonna understand that about amazon but once they develop all that you're gonna see that shoot rate back up that free cash flow it's gonna go right back up in my opinion so honestly this can be another cast position almost like what charlie munger said about alibaba man he's having this as a cash position alibaba i might put amazon and put it as a cash position man so what do you think about amazon as a cash position what do you think about amazon business and just the growth of the company what about earnings coming up there's so much to talk about man so pleas
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