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Well, guys. Let's begin. BMNR is sagging a bit right now . We'll talk about why it dropped to $23 something right now. And we'll analyze MSTR, as MSTR just dropped below 150. What's going on? Well, we'll take a look at the graphs to find out why. I wanted to make sure I did the show, even though I'm at my second location here in Florida.
This is reality, this is all truly behind me. I'm not in front of some strange background, as you can see. But let's look at the charts right now. This is not tax, financial or legal advice. But if you look at the BMNR drawdown, you can clearly see a change in the nature of the daily charts. And if you've watched my shows before, you know we always talk about daytime schedules.
And changes definitely happened. You see right here, around $26, that was the approximate exit price for BMNR. It is currently priced at $23. And that's from a short-term perspective, right? But daily charts really show where the trend is going. So what I'm waiting for now is Wednesday. Reports will be released and we will see what happens with the inflation reports on Wednesday to see if the forecast is correct.
The forecast is that the figures will be lower than expected, which would be good because it would be positive for the cryptocurrency. So, seeing this chart turn around again here when there's a move on the daily chart, that's important, because you see this red and how long we were in the green. And sometimes there's a quick move into the red zone, like during a Fed meeting , you know, like here, when one day in the red , but we've been in the green for so long.
So it's definitely not something that can be ignored, especially the downward slope of what's happening with BMNR right now, from a short-term perspective. I'm not ignoring this. I also hold a position in BMNR right now, so I'm not selling everything right now either, because I'm looking at the weekly trend of where we're headed.
But here in the daytime, just look at this. This trend does not look good in the short term. Um, if Wednesday's inflation news is positive, we could see a nice reversal, a nice bounce back, but the downtrend is definitely real here. Um, and hopefully October will change things and we'll have a good October like we used to.
The bear market is starting to recover, because historically, once we get out of a bear trend—and I think we have —and into a recovery phase, October is usually a good month. But if you look at the weekly chart, it looks promising. So, if you look at the weekly chart, BMNR still looks good. You see, it's not as bright green as it is here; When we move into the bullish green zone on the weekly chart, that's when I start to think we've exited a bear market.
Um, that doesn't mean that crypto prices can't fluctuate, as we often see, 20% drops. And that's kind of equivalent to going from the peak where we were at $28.70 to 23. That's not quite a 20% drop, but how much did we fall? Approximately 16% off the peak. So if the weekly trend changes, I'll start to worry.
It does n't look like it right now, but I'll be worried if it happens, okay? But so far the weekly trend remains " bullish", which is how I view things in the long term, so I'm still holding my position. That's it. Now, if we look at, you know, some of the news, first we'll go to MSTR and show you what's happening with MSTR as well.
So you see that MSTR is at 149, which is below 150. The weekly trend on MSTR is still promising, as you can see right here. On the daily chart, it does n't look so bad, um, because it's only been a few days, but you can see that it's definitely changed as well. And if you remember, when the bull market started, BMNR was the first to go up, and MSTR lagged for a while .
So, BMNR was the first to move up back in July when it began its bullish run, and MSTR waited about a month to follow suit. So, you know, on MSTR we can get a little more "redness" on the daily chart. But what I'm looking at again in the long term is what does the weekly chart look like? Certainly, we are seeing some "bearishness" right now, but the long-term trend still looks healthy.
Of course? So that's the main thing I pay attention to. The probability of a Fed rate hike has decreased, although it was previously around 50-60 %. So, expectations in the forecast markets indicate about a 20% probability of a rate hike in October. So it's positive news that there probably won't be a raise.
It's a good thing that Bitcoin buyers defended the 80k level when we saw this sell-off that happened last week, it seems. I was traveling, so excuse me. But last week we saw a sell-off and we could see that Bitcoin held up, if you look at the weekly chart, Bitcoin still looks healthy. However, if you look at the daily trend of BTC, it has also turned red.
And you see the trend as the charts move; That's why I look at the daily and weekly charts, because when they start to turn red—that's important, at $84,000 it started to turn red and fell to $ 80,000. The level was defended. A lot of leverage was eliminated. This was the reason why the price fell lower.
But also the inflows into ETFs, which have been very strong over the last month or two, have diminished for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and we are also seeing outflows. So, there are definitely changes in the market . Let's hope this is only temporary, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on, especially since BMNR and E started selling out first.
So when you see this chart on the daily timeframe, it was almost obvious that a short-term sell-off was in store for BMNR. So if you want to get more data on these charts, you can follow the link below and get trained on how I use them. Very useful. As you can see, I've been showing this on the show for a while now, and it really helps to see what's going on, you know?
We are in a downtrend, so I don't expect any significant reversal anytime soon. We can turn around gradually. Wednesday's news may bring some relief to start changing the trend, but you can see that the trend on BMRR is really down. So, in the short term, it does n't look very good. But in the long term, based on the weekly trend, BMRR still looks good.
Remember, we were at 13,000, well, a few months ago? So, we are still in the red relative to the lows, and that's good. The 10-year Treasury yield is still weighing on us at 5.24%. This is the highest figure in a long time. People keep money there because they get it from the government. Essentially, they are lending money to the state, it is safe money.
They think: " I can get 5.24%." I won't take risks by investing in crypto or stocks, I'd rather invest there. So, here's what's happening. Well, you know, ETH is showing weak results right now, as we can see. Bitcoin too, but ETH, you know, bounced back pretty well to 2530, so it's in the 2500 range.
So let's see what happens next. So, keep an eye out for CPI inflation data on Wednesday. This is exactly what you should pay attention to. If the figures are lower than expected, as predicted, it will be optimistic for crypto, so good. That's actually all that's happening. I wanted to drop by and say hello.
I am in a different place now. I'm in Florida. I come here every few months. And it allows me to escape the hustle and bustle of the city where I live and come here. So, that's what I do. But I'll be in touch as often as I can for the show with you this week to keep you updated . So, overall, here's the main message.
Be sure to use these graphs. Some technical data like this to keep you calm. Because when you see what's happening, it's not so stressful. And when you mostly see what's coming , it's not as stressful if you know what to do. Here, for example, we could have predicted this with BMNR, and I'll show you why we could have predicted this and why it was quite obvious on the charts that this would happen, okay?
Because if you look at the color green, right? We had this growth, and I'm not talking about this little red line here where the Fed comes out and scares everyone. We had this growth in BMNR for a long time, the trend line was green, it was thick and big, it stayed big and it was, well, just up, up and up, you could see it.
But when you started to see here how it's thinned out over the last 2 weeks, you see that , right? It really started to thin out, and you could watch the stocks the last couple of weeks as they started to make fresh lows. Let's say we closed below $28, then started closing around $ 27, then around $26 something, and then around $26 and a half .
It just got lower and lower, you could see it getting thinner, and once the red color appeared, it became clear that we were moving in a different direction. So, you 'll see it here. We went parabolic, right? Thick, thick, thick, thick, thick. It was thick, and then it started to thin out. Do you see this?
This is where it thinned out, and this is where the main concern arose , and it just fell apart. So, this is where the lower lows were. I showed you a different green color before. You can see how it is really thinning out here after its thick "bullish" trend. And when this thinning starts, that's when you should pay attention and start worrying, right?
And then the red color appears and you see the fall. So, here's what happened. Having this kind of data helps a lot. Even after the close of trading, it seems we fell another percent or one and a half. In any case, below is the data for learning how to work with such indicators. This is extremely useful.
I'm not worried about the long term because the weekly charts look like this. Therefore, I remain in the positions I hold now. And I think the next 2 years will be promising for BMNR and MSCR, but in the short term, we have what we have now. High, you know, high rates on Treasury bonds are now 5.24%.
Fears that the Fed will raise interest rates in December. People think there will be another rate hike this year. Oil is more expensive than 100 bucks. Overall, the economy doesn't look the best, you know? But the long-term trend for BMNR and MSCR looks good. So I hope this is useful to you. If you need more data on these graphs, you can go below and watch a video about it.
They are simply extremely useful. And you can also get my book "The Money Game". If you are not yet subscribed to the channel, feel free to subscribe. I try to go on air three times a week . I usually manage to be here three times a week. Well, sometimes only twice. OK. I hope this helps you. And hold on to this weekly trend line, because it gives us hope that we are moving in the right direction, just not right now.
And if history repeats itself, October could be a good month after the bear market. So, perhaps we are in for a good second half of October, as is usually the case after bear markets. Uh, the second half of October was successful, not the first. So we'll see what happens next, but for now, hang in there .
I know it's frustrating to see the price drop from $29 or $28.70 all the way down to $23. But it's a fact, and it happens. So I hope you are okay and have a great rest of the day. All the best.
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