🔥(TSLA) Tesla Stock Analysis | Is TSLA Stock A Buy? 🔥

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결론: 진행자는 테슬라(TSLA)를 매수 의견으로 제시하며 5년 목표가 1,100달러를 제시했다. 분석 방법: 기업 가치 평가를 펀더멘털, 통계, 재무, 차트 측면에서 최대한 분리해 보겠다고 밝혔다. 재무 상태: 시가총액 약 600억 달러, 기업가치 약 679억 달러, 선행 PER 53배이며 아직 흑자가 아니라고 설명했다. 52주 저점 244달러, 고점 280달러대에서 거래 중이라고 언급했다. 공매도 지표: 유통주식 대비 공매도 비율 약 25%, 발행주식 대비 약 17%로 높다고 지적했고, 이를 투자 위험 신호로 보았다. 수익성 및 재무구조: 영업이익률, 자산이익률, 자기자본이익률이 모두 마이너스이며, 현금 약 29.7억 달러 대비 총부채 약 130억 달러라고 설명했다. 성장 근거: 분기 매출 성장률이 100% 이상이라는 점을 투자 매력으로 꼽았다. 적자 기업이라도 매출 성장이 크면 투자할 수 있다는 논리다. 판매량 비교: 2018년 미국 판매 순위에서 테슬라는 상위권에 없고, 모델3는 월간 실적은 좋지만 연간 누적은 약 5.6만 대라고 소개했다. 포드·GM은 과잉 생산 문제를 겪고 있다고 비교했다. 일론 머스크 요인: 테슬라 투자의 핵심은 머스크의 비전이라고 강조했다. 단기 주가 하락이 나와도 5년 목표가는 유지하겠다고 말했다. 인터뷰: 머스크 인터뷰가 포함되어 있으나, 420 트윗 관련 질문 이후 대화가 파행되었고 진행자 본인의 전망 외에 실질적 투자 신호는 제한적이다. 리스크: 적자 지속, 높은 공매도 비율, 부채 부담, 생산·수요 문제를 리스크로 인정했다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 테슬라가 장기적으로 1,000달러를 넘을 것으로 보며, 1~5년 관점의 매수 의견을 유지했다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. in today's video we are gonna initiate coverage on Tesla stock ticker symbol TS la they trade on the NASDAQ exchange and their current price is three hundred and fifty dollars in forty eight cents so guys make sure you hang around to the end of the video you are not gonna want to miss my interview with Elon Musk and I also quickly want to mention this to guys this was a patreon requested video my good friend Niko's he jumped in there requested a Tesla stock analysis video six hours after I launched my patreon he became a member and requested so I want to give Nico a shout out guys he's been a very loyal subscriber and a great friend alright guys so one thing I want to do in this video is be objective I want to conduct this stock analysis video in a completely different manner than anybody else on YouTube I want to have the ability to separate Tesla from Elon Musk okay which is almost impossible to do as a matter of fact it is impossible to do but I'm going to attempt it I want to look at Tesla just across the board fundamentally statistically financially charting research those type of things and try my best to separate Tesla and Elon Musk then towards the end of video I'm gonna bring the great vision all together so the video makes sense so guys when you purchase a share of Tesla you're basically buying into two things you're buying into the great vision of Elon Musk and you're buying into over 100 percent quarterly revenue growth another thing I want to mention too before we go any further guys is that automotive is a very very tricky field and we are gonna dig into that quite a bit in this video but automotive is very very tricky okay I tend to jump headfirst into every single trend I jump into tech I jump into chip makers I jump into MJ I jump into oil I jump into retail I jump into every single sector I dive headfirst into it then I walk up to automotive and I get scared I and matter of fact I've never owned a share Tesla Tesla has about a sixty billion dollar market cap they have about a sixty seven point nine billion dollar enterprise value okay very very big company as a matter of fact they are bigger than Ford or GM by market cap now the forward p/e ratio 53 with no trailing p/e ratio why because Tesla is not a profitable company yet you guys have to come to understand this okay Tesla is not a profitable company yet so on a 52-week scale guys Tesla has traded as low as 244 dollars and as high as 280 746 on a 52-week scale it has traded up eleven point seven nine percent which I will mind in this current pullback is actually quite impressive okay so everything underneath me is we're gonna answer all the questions pretty much right here in this little area so let's go right down here none of this stuff really matters your float your shares outstanding percent held by insiders percent held by institutions none of that stuff is really gonna affect the fundamental value of a company but right down here your short ratio your short percent afloat in your short percent of shares outstanding have a significant impact on fundamental analysis okay so you're short percent of float that's how many shareholders are holding the stock short on the float of the stock guys 25 percent that's a lot of shorts the short percent of shares outstanding is about 17 percent that's still way too high I'm the kind of investor I will beat myself up relentlessly if I buy big into a position that has this many short sellers now I'll drop a little bit of money on a very unprofitable company in a very fundamentally flawed company because I'm not worried about what's gonna happen with that little piece of money but if I'm gonna use big money and I'm gonna invest lots of money like I said I will stay awake at night if I have this many people shorting the stock okay and right here guys like I mentioned right here's your answer why does so many short Tesla why is Tesla so heavily shorted it's because they have negative profit margins they have negative on the operating margin they're negative on assets and they're negative on equity okay and you just have to face this stuff okay I'm not talking bad about your favorite company I love Tesla and I love that guy I said I wasn't going to talk about but you you you can't argue with statistics you can't argue with numbers okay you have to look at this stuff before you buy a stock and here it is okay a lot of short sellers on the float a lot of short sellers on the shares outstanding and negative in every single category right down here guys in the balance sheet this is another reason why Tesla gets shorted so much you have two point nine seven billion dollars of cash and thirteen billion dollars of total debt now that doesn't really bother me because Tesla is an up-and-coming and disruptive company okay so those kind of numbers don't bother me but they do bother your common short seller okay a lot of short sellers are gonna see a company with this kind of market cap they're gonna expect a lot more cash in the bank okay they're gonna expect more than three billion dollars of bank or they're gonna say okay you can have three billion dollars in the bank but we want that debt cut in half we want to see about six billion we want to see about seven billion so clean that up a little bit and we'll cover on our shorts that's just the common mindset of a short seller of course Tesla does not pay a dividend most of the big growth companies usually don't but right here guys the quarterly revenue growth that is another reason why people invest in Tesla so it is very possible for a company to have massive quarterly revenue growth and still be very unprofitable okay it's like this right here if your income is five thousand dollars a month but you have six thousand dollars of bills does not really matter what your income is you have more bills than income or we can even scale that up let's say your income is twenty five thousand dollars a month but if you have thirty seven thousand dollars of bills again you're going to be on profitable in one month same exact concept okay Tesla makes a lot of money Tesla spends a lot of money so guys what I've got pulled up right here is monthly and yearly sales figures here in the United States so this is all the top performers in the United States okay so let's just go right down here and I'm gonna go off of this year to date column okay I'm not worried about monthly I'm not worried about percentages I just want to know who has sold the most vehicles year-to-date in 2018 and let's see Ford f-series is number one followed by the Chevy Silverado Ram pickup Toyota rav4 Nissan Rogue in the Honda CRV okay then we finally get to Toyota Camry okay so what does that tell you let's let's stay focus right here at this line and go up what does this tell you that here in the United States people mostly buy trucks and SUVs okay but as you can see Ford has a humongous lead even on the Chevy Silverado and the RAM pickup and then it just kind of goes down from there so the that you got the Camry you got the Civic you got the Corolla family you have the Chevy Equinox Honda Accord Ford Escape Ford Explorer Jeep Wrangler what are we not seeing here what is it tell me some models we're not seeing anywhere up here in any of these rankings is a Tesla most of these audio meant auto manufacturers have the opposite problem like Ford they can't set their the number one seller of vehicles in the United States and still can't sell most of their inventory that boggles the mind but let's keep traveling until we find Tesla okay so we are really getting down here guys we're Chevy Colorado the Hyundai Tucson Ford Edge Chrysler and we are really really getting down here I'm just hoping Tesla pops up here at some point but I'm not seeing it okay Rome Tesla Model 3 so they did really good monthly but yearly 56,000 models okay so now let's go back up here and shuffle again except let's go bimonthly number so now they're gonna show up like they're a real high sell and they did they have ramped up production and they are trying this is a very hard-working company there's no doubt about it but again I'm making a strong point the numbers don't lie they cannot penetrate these numbers because they're having constant production issues and they can never meet the demand of the product meanwhile the other like I said GM and Ford have the opposite problem they over manufacture they make so many vehicles they can't sell them all that's why they have to shut down plants and things like that so we can stop right there and kind of look at this like it's a crossroads because Tesla cannot make enough to meet demand that's actually a very very good thing for a company to be experiencing okay every vehicle they make is sold like said while the other manufacturers make far more vehicles than they can possibly sell that's a bad problem to have okay that's a bad problem have especially here in the United States you would think that the stock and the market caps a Ford and GM would be going up and they're not guys you know they're not this isn't a Ford or a GM stock analysis video but go check it out Ford has been one of the most shorted stocks over the past five years GM all right guys if you've made it this far in the video congratulations because now I want to start bringing Elon Musk back into the picture and explain my thesis on Tesla so I have the lifetime chart pulled up on Tesla guys Tesla has been a great investment and see this is really what you're investing in like I said the most important thing you're investing in with Tesla is Elon Musk his vision okay this man will go and work in the factories for 20 hours a day and fall asleep on the floor and he cancels plans with friends and he cancels plans with families and he devotes his whole life you know to really getting Tesla up to speed and making them the company that they are and so now you can see it's really shown on the chart I mean just look what he's done already look at this progress is fundamentally flawed as this company as many problems as this company has look what he has managed to do take them to the next level time and time again you know it looks like I said right here their first couple of years on the market they did not trade up very much that's kind of what I'm anticipating from neo I'm anticipating at least one or two years for neo to trade like this just kind of sideways and then before they even you know think about being profitable but really Tesla's never been profitable okay it's always been massive quarterly revenue growth that's always been the story of Tesla and I know Elon Musk will stay with this company until they are profitable till they could be handed off to another gym he still probably won't leave then you know he'll still always this will always be his company this will always be Elan Musk's company but he will not stop driving this company until they are profitable so the only thing I caution anyone of you about before you buy Tesla stock is just be aware of the fundamentals okay there is a lot of coverage on Tesla there's hundreds of different opinions you know but this is a great investment Tesla is going to be a fantastic long-term I see it being over a thousand dollars very soon and as a matter of fact this is the part of the video where I'm gonna go ahead and rate Tesla as a buy and I'm gonna give them an $1100 five-year price target okay so now if you click off this video and Tesla drops to $290 tomorrow don't come back here and comment to me and tell me I don't know what I'm talking about when I put a price target out you know one to five years in the future I stand by that okay you know if Tesla was to go down to 150 dollars a share tomorrow I would still maintain my five-year price target I have no reason to adjust it what drives this company what makes this company great guys it's Elon Musk like I said he has a real problem with the short sellers it really bothers him and you know I think Elon Musk is probably so intelligent and he's so far beyond the normal intelligence of a normal person that he doesn't even take time to really understand the stock market you know he doesn't maybe doesn't understand how important it is that Tesla is kind of overvalued and it's a visionary stock you know you're really buying into his vision so short sellers really really bother him but there's a whole lot of them out there Elon I appreciate you being here man thank you this means a lot to me that you come today in Spaceballs yogurt goes through the merchandising section and they have a flamethrower I gotta say that's a very strange way to to open a show but hey you know what do your thing man you're the genius behind PayPal you're the genius behind SpaceX and definitely Tesla tell us what's going on at Tesla what is new tell us the latest thing tell us everything you can possibly tell us Elon but I'm not saying it's gonna be successful or so you know I know it's like asserting that's gonna be successful but so far well hold on just a second now uh you know let me stop you now you are already very successful Tesla is already very very successful um you know you're bigger than General Motors and Ford so did you happen to bring me one of those flamethrowers yes oh thanks man I really man that just made my day right there so all right let's get back on track a little bit okay I'm gonna ask you the question everybody wants me to ask you I'm just gonna come out there and do it man I hope you're prepared for this but back in August you south this tweet that says you're considering taking Tesla private at 420 dollars a share funding secured now what what really caught my eye was 420 that's an interesting number 420 that I've thought that was a marijuana reference yes hmm so what was going through your head when you sent out that tweet Elon whoa whoa whoa okay now let's just move on to something else man it doesn't have to come down to that look man um I don't think this interview started off too well it's probably my fault I take the blame for it um would you like to just kind of cancel this maybe let's go hit up a bar or you're just gonna sit there and get high all night hey while you're doing that can I go drive around in the Tesla yes mm is that the keys right there yes could you uh could you reach over there and grab them for me or are you too messed up right now thanks dude oh my gosh well I tell you what man I'm gonna get out of here I'm gonna go drive this thing around see what it's got