저자: Freaky Finance · 외국인
다듬은 글
no other era is even close to what we're doing right now i think a lot of these bubbles as they deflate the money is ultimately going to go into consumer prices to stop using the word monetary stimulus there is no monetary stimulus there is money printing yes there is money printing and debt monetization but it has no stimulative effect right now you're now you're way over the language you're saying inflation is prices going up you're putting words in my mouth that i never said i said that uh i would not put any stock into what any fed chairman says because you always have to remember that these guys are there to tell a story and they always want to put a positive spin on everything like when ben bernanke was at the fed telling everybody not to worry about the mortgage market subprime was contained he later admitted in an interview after he was no longer fed chair that he didn't really believe that he was just simply trying to advance the administration's view that everything was great and so he couldn't really speak his mind he kind of had to act as if he was part of the bush administration in order to validate their easy money policy pal basically has to say that any increases that we experience in consumer prices are just a temporary aberration it's transitory don't worry about it uh so i think we're understating the increase in consumer prices plus a lot of the liquidity the inflation that the fed was creating it went into the stock market it went into the real estate market in the cryptocurrency market uh you know into the bond market i think a lot of these bubbles as they deflate the money is ultimately going to go into consumer prices commodities and things like that and so we're going to we're about to see a tsunami of inflation and you know whether the fed is oblivious to it or just lying about it you know there's no way to know i think it's already started i mean you could look at some of these price increases and they're very spectacular and again i don't think we're transitioning or it's transitory unless you're saying we're transitioning from low inflation to high inflation which is what's happening but what you want to look at to understand inflation is you look at the money supply because it's the money supply that it was being inflated i mean literally that's where the word comes from inflation is to expand you inflate right when something is inflated it expands prices don't expand they go up they go down but they don't expand it's money supply that expands and we have the most expansionary monetary policy in u.s history and no other era is even close to what we're doing right now so this is massive inflation and so to expect that prices are not going to respond by rising is ridiculous a lot of this money that people have saved was sent to them by the government and yes a lot of people haven't been able to spend it yet because they haven't got out of the house they have bought a lot of goods unemployed americans have been able to shop on amazon but there's still a lot of other money that they haven't spent yet eventually all of this hoarded cash is going to be spent and if we're not producing more goods and services for the money to be spent on then all it could do is bid up the prices on the goods and services that already exist janet yellen was asked a question today the question was you know why aren't you worried anymore about the debt her answer to that question was that well interest rates are really low and the reason it's not a problem is because the rates are so low and so servicing the debt is not that big a burden given how low rates are well if you have this huge amount of debt and the only reason there's not a crisis is because interest rates are low what happens if they're not low what happens if interest rates are high the only thing between the us government and default is artificially low interest rates so if the federal reserve knows if it raises interest rates it bankrupts the government how is the federal reserve going to fight inflation the answer is it can't my thinking is if it can't fight inflation without bankrupting the u.s government it won't fight the inflation which means it bankrupts the u.s public because it destroys the value of the dollar well first of all before the dollar was the reserve currency all those other currencies were backed by gold i mean they weren't just fiat i mean the dollar is the first currency in history to achieve that status as pure fiat currency when the dollar originally became the world's reserve currency it was backed by gold in fact it was redeemable in gold on demand i think that when the dollar is no longer the main reserve for all those fiat currencies they're not just going to pick another fiat currency to replace the dollar it wouldn't make any sense to just go to the euro or to go to the yen because at the end of the day they're just paper too i think the dollar's demise is going to introduce the remonetization of gold not that it was ever demonetized by central banks because central banks all hold gold but i think gold is going to replace the dollar as the primary reserve asset for all central banks right now all they have to do is print money so if the government wants something they just need to print money and they can get it but in the new world where gold is a reserve if they want something they need the gold to pay for it right they either have to tax the citizens or they're going to have to you know start dipping into their reserves so the the u.s gold reserve can be depleted very quickly uh if we need that gold to pay for things see right now we don't need anything to pay for anything america is the biggest beneficiary of this dollar standard because let's say you take a small country let's say you take new zealand if new zealand wants to import it has to export the new zealand dollar isn't the reserve currency so it has to earn dollars in order to buy things that are dollar-denominated we don't have to earn anything we just print them it only makes a difference to the united states because now we go from printing something to earning something and it's a lot harder to earn than to print when governments are desperate they do desperate things you can look at other countries when capital starts to flee because there's a lot of inflation or high taxes governments try to plug up the holes so they can keep their victims stuck and they can keep on you know victimizing them with taxation or inflation or whatever it is so it certainly is possible if things really start to get bad but right now not that many people understand this threat i mean they're just oblivious they believe the fed just like they believed them in the past so right now only a small number of people are buying gold and buying real assets and getting out of dollars so right now there's no taxes which is another reason to do it now because they can impose the taxes retroactively so you know that would be illegal so if you already have your money out of the dollar and then they impose those taxes on getting out of the dollar well you're already out so you're not gonna have to pay it so don't wait until they're trying to you know put a toll road there you know right now it's a it's a freeway you could you could get out there's no toll uh but at some point when a lot of people want out there's a good chance that there will be a toll they say what's the secret behind mine i think it's garbage by the way but you say what's the secret bible the secret behind it is if you can issue debt and collect taxes in the money that you print you can force people to accept the money because they need the money to pay their taxes and if they don't pay the taxes they end up in jail and the point is it relies on state power it's really a neo-fascist concept it relies on coercion you know the point of a gun jails and state power to enforce the confidence in money now that's and they say that the fed is trying to get out of this they're trying to normalize the balance sheet trying to normalize interest rates so they had to get rates up balance sheet down why so they could prepare for the next recession how do you cut interest rates four percent if you're at one well the answer is you can't and that's why they came up with quantitative easing so the effort was get to four percent rates two two trillion dollar balance sheet and you're ready for the next recession they will not be able to prepare for the next recession without causing the recession that they're trying to prepare for and that's exactly what happened in the fourth quarter 2018 the stock market dropped 19 and that's when jay powell threw on the towel he got religion he said okay first he said we're not going to raise rates anymore they said we're actually going to cut rates and then september 2019 they started qe4 that was before and either before the recession before the depression before the pandemic they were already in qe4 and uh cutting rates again so that they can't get out of it so they prove that the failures manifest they prove that they can't get out of it uh what and and what can they do well first of all i encourage everyone uh to stop using the word monetary stimulus there is no monetary stimulus there is money printing yes there is money printing and debt monetization but it has no stimulative effect you don't get inflation from printing money you get it from velocity which is psychological which the fed doesn't understand but the biggest threat is deflation well first of all the only thing you're going to see deflation measured in is gold but in terms of fiat currency prices are going to go up dramatically because they will continue to print the dollar until it no longer has value that's the only thing that's going to stop it what we've seen so far even with the civil unrest and the riots and the looting this is just a small dress rehearsal for what's coming because when the dollar crashes and prices skyrocket these stimulus checks you know or you know whatever welfare benefits the government wants to dispense they're not going to be worth very much i mean they're because you're not going to buy anything and i think the government is going to respond to the surge in consumer prices with price controls i think there's going to be controls on all sorts of consumer goods and that means shortages that means long lines i think you're going to see a real blow up particularly in in the cities there's going to be a lot of crime a lot of violence associated with widespread shortages and a lack of food and power outages so things are going to get pretty bad as we go through a a monetary crisis it's not you know this is not just a financial crisis this is a us dollar crisis and a sovereign debt crisis that's a whole nother ball game yeah well i agree with peter that the fed wants inflation but they don't know how to get it and they haven't for the last 12 years well that's the one thing they do know how to do they can cause inflation that's all they can do they can print money they can't they can't pay they printed seven trillion dollars in 12 years and we got no inflation assets yes but i'm talking about i mean prices are higher than they were seven years ago consumer prices but we inflated a stock market bubble we inflated a real estate bubble we inflated a bond market i mean asset prices went way up uh we distorted the economy based on all that inflation and look consumer prices have risen right i mean i don't care the way the government wants to keep track of them with their you know with the cpi the cpi is not an accurate reflection of what's actually happening with consumer prices it's uh i it's pretty good look if you want to count assets you're you're right but you're changing the it's moving the goal post you're changing the definition no if you count assets yet if you count assets yes but i count consumer prices or pc core deflator because that's how if you want to predict fed policy that's what they look at so you need to consider what the fed looks at i care about reality you know and prices prices are going up but that's not inflation because if the fed didn't create all this inflation maybe those prices would have really come down maybe consumers would have gotten the benefit of a lower cost of living but the feds stole that benefit away from them by creating inflation but look all of this inflation is going to come home to roost all of a sudden we're going to catch up and we're going to see dramatic increases in consumer prices and then when you go back over the entire period you can say oh look prices are up 10 a year or whatever they're going to be because all of a sudden they're going to shoot way up and it's not going to matter that they were benign uh for a while when all of a sudden they skyrocket and catch up to where they should have been but the cause was all the inflation the federal reserve has been creating the entire time well they i agree that if the fed didn't do what they did we would have had more deflation in a way they were just fighting it to a standstill but we haven't had inflation for 12 years asset price is yes but that's not the definition of inflation the definition of inflation is an expansion of the supply of money and that's what we've had in space with this is the greatest definition of the world has ever experienced you can make up your own definitions be a definition of inflation it's higher prices jim i'm not making up the definition it's it's people today you go back and get at webster dictionary from 100 years ago and you read what inflation is and it'll it'll it'll say inflation is an expansion of the money supply supply of money and credit rising prices are an effect of inflation right prices don't exist prices go up and they go down money supply inflates you it's inflate is to expand right you don't expand prices what what is being expanded is a supply of money that's inflation inflation is an expansion of the money supply deflation is a contraction of the money supply the effects of inflation or def and deflation are on prices when you have inflation and you're late in my supply prices will go up and when you're deflating it prices will go down but sometimes you can inflate the money supply and prices don't go up because the inflation is preventing prices from going down but don't confuse changes in prices with changes in money supply money supply is in freight is inflation prices are just prices the problem here look we're we're talking we're talking past each other because we have two different definitions if you say that prices are flat but that's inflation fine that's not how any central bank in the world or any economist thinks about yes the central bankers want to pretend that inflation has to do with prices because they don't want to be blamed for it when when you accept the real definition of inflation which is an expansion of the money supply then you know who causes it it's government it's central banks that cause inflation but governments want to blame inflation on the private sector that's why they want to redefine it as prices and you're playing into to their propaganda by trying to perpetuate the idea that inflation is caused by greedy businessmen raising their prices right now you're now you're way over the language you're saying inflation is prices going up you're putting words in my mouth that i never said i said that uh yeah inflation is measured by prices that's just that's just how you do it if you have a different definition that's fine inflation is measured by the money supply but the reason that you're not seeing a lot more money going into gold especially the bigger institutional money is yes they do not yet perceive the threat they think everything is fine they believe powell when he says inflation is transitory so they're not as concerned they just like they believe powell or the other fed chairs uh bernanke or yellen when they said oh qe is only temporary oh we're going to shrink our balance sheet back down to pre-crisis levels oh we're going to normalize interest rates these were all lies that the fed told yet the markets believed the fed and now they're telling more lies but the markets continue to believe every lie the fed tells and they don't look back at their track record and say hey these guys haven't really been honest in the past now again maybe it's not honest maybe they're just wrong maybe the fed is just wrong in everything it says if it's just wrong all the time well then why believe them now if their track record is they've always gotten it wrong but i do think that at some point more and more people are going to start to doubt the fed people are going to call the feds bluff like okay you know you you can't do anything about all this inflation and then goal's going to take off so the opportunity now is that while most people don't perceive the threat and are just acting as if everything is fine and investing as if inflation isn't a concern that's why gold is a bargain and silver too for that matter for all the people that do understand where this is headed and can think ahead of the curve we're not getting all this stimulus for free it's gonna cost a lot of money this next round is gonna be accompanied by some official tax increases how much they'll actually raise is always hard to say they never raise as much as they think and they always spend more than they than they think so i think the tax increases will only provide the government with a relatively small portion of what they're going to be spending on these new programs and so they're going to mainly rely on inflation right the fed is going to print the money to buy the bonds that the government issues to fund all these programs and you know the dollar is going to crash and prices are going to soar and you know people need to be prepared
Comments 0