저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 금을 실물 가치저장 수단으로 보고 비트코인은 투기 자산이며 결국 붕괴할 것이라고 주장한다. 비트코인과 금의 비교: 비트코인은 금의 대체재가 아니라 단지 디지털 토큰이며 가치를 저장하지 않는다고 주장. 금은 산업 전반에 쓰이는 금속이자 부식되지 않는 보수적 안전자산이라고 설명. 금의 미래 화폐 역할: 언젠가 금이 다시 화폐로 재화폐화될 것이며, 미래 거래는 금으로 뒷받침된 디지털 화폐나 금을 보관하는 기관을 통해 인터넷으로 이뤄질 것이라고 전망. 금 표준 아래 디지털 은행 소프트웨어에서 금을 유로·엔·달러와 동일하게 다룰 수 있다고 주장. 가격과 진실: 가격이 곧 진실은 아니며 닷컴 버블, 서브프라임 모기지 사례처럼 대중 의견이 자주 틀린다고 지적. 현재 비트코인 5만 달러대 가격은 현재 시장 심리를 반영할 뿐이며 매도 심리가 강해지면 가격이 크게 하락할 것이라고 경고. 암호화폐 전반: 1만 2천 개 이상의 암호화폐는 이름 외에 본질적 차이가 없고, 공급이 계속 늘어나며 신규 매수자가 고갈되면 폰지 구조로 붕괴한다고 주장. 주식과 달리 배당이나 사업 수익이 없다고 비교. 비트코인 디스카운트 리스크: 억만장자들이 현금화하려 할 때 실물 자산을 사려는 수요가 비트코인 보유자들의 매도 물량을 받아줄 사람이 없어 가격이 붕괴할 수 있다는 리스크를 강조. 금 가격 전망: 제목의 '금 가격 20배' 전망에 대한 구체적 목표가나 기간은 본문 자막에서 명확히 제시되지 않음. 금에 대한 장기 강세 견해는 있으나 1~3개월 단기 예측은 없음. 출연자 전망: 금은 장기적으로 재화폐화될 안전자산, 비트코인은 장기적으로 붕괴 가능성이 높다는 견해.
다듬은 글
look i mean the the thing about gold and bitcoin is bitcoin pretends to be digital gold i mean that's part of the marketing spiel of bitcoin that hey you know bitcoin is better than gold but it's got nothing in common with gold gold is a commodity gold is a metal bitcoin is neither i mean bitcoin is just a digital token it's something that people speculate with gold is not a speculative asset i mean gold is a conservative safe haven store of value so the conversation really shouldn't be about bitcoin versus gold it should be bitcoin versus ether or one of the other you know 12 000 cryptocurrencies or should i buy bitcoin or an nft or maybe a meme stock you know what what should i gamble on you know where should i try to bet that you know other people are going to come in and pay a higher price you know gold is the opposite of what bitcoin is right bitcoin is not uh a store of value because there's no value there to store i mean bitcoin has a price and when you're buying bitcoin you're just speculating that the price goes up you're not storing anything you're not conserving anything gold is a store of value because gold is a metal that is used throughout the economy throughout industry there are lots of uses for gold there are probably many uses for gold that haven't even been developed yet but maybe developed in 500 years or a thousand years and they'll use the gold that we have right now that we're storing that we're not you know using because gold doesn't erode it doesn't tarnish it doesn't lose any of its properties over time so it's the ideal store of value and it worked great as money for thousands of years uh we're not really using it as a monetary unit today it's more used as a metal but it is also used as a store of value but i do think one day it will be remonetized i think we will be using gold as a mean of exchange as a unit of account as we have in the past but what i think will be different about a future gold standard than a pass gold standard is i think most of the gold transactions will take place you know through the internet either through a digital currency that is backed by and redeemable in gold or through other companies where gold is stored uh with a you know a reliable uh vault or a bank or a private company that can that can you know make that gold available through digital uh transactions you know that that's where paper money initially came from people were using gold as money but it was inconvenient sometimes to carry around a lot of gold or to use gold for smaller transactions and so you would take your gold to a goldsmith and later a bank and they would give you a warehouse receipt which is called currency and so you could transact in the currency but what gave the currency value because it was just made a paper what gave the currency value is that it was an iou for actual gold that was on deposit someplace else well in the modern world instead of having a piece of paper that evidences ownership of gold that you transact you can have a digital version of that piece of paper that evidence ownership and transact in that and then you can use your gold to buy a cup of coffee because you can break down an ounce of gold into fractions of a gram and you know it works a lot better than than the cryptocurrencies because you have something of real value and then you can actually price goods and services in it uh it can act as a unit of account it could do exactly what it did in the past in the future except they could do it more efficiently because of today's improved uh technology that makes a gold standard even better now than it was in the past and it worked great in the past there's nothing that stops people from having you know a digital currency backed by gold other than the gov the regulations that that drive up the cost but there's nothing that stops people from you know like you know like my my bank when i eventually can get it up damn thing up and running uh but where i have gold as a currency my core banking software you know looks at gold the way it looks at euros pounds yen dollars and you can do everything with gold that you can with those currencies at basically the same cost so individuals don't have to wait for the government if they want to own gold if they want to accept payment in gold they can do it and it's very efficient and very simple so we don't have to wait for the government to do it but to get back to all the things that you were saying i mean first of all the idea that price is truth i mean it's only truth in a sense that price reflects the popular opinion at the time that the price is being set but more often than not the popular opinion is wrong i mean you go back at all kinds of bubbles you know it was price truth uh in 2000 so many of those dot-com stocks went to zero right people were paying 50 100 200 a share and they went to zero so price wasn't truth price wasn't truth when people were paying par for subprime mortgages that went to zero but it was truth to the extent that people were making a mistake collectively and the price did not accurately reflect the value of the underlying asset that was being priced and so that's the situation with these crypto currencies yes the 50 000 price is an accurate representation of the market today based on what people are willing to pay to buy bitcoin and how few people that own bitcoin want to sell but you know you fast forward to some point in the future when you have a different situation when very few people want to buy and everybody's looking to get rid of their bitcoin you're going to have a much lower price so just because the price is high doesn't mean the market is right uh to assign that price now when you're talking about um well you should buy you know bitcoin you know you got 12 000 cryptocurrencies and try to compare that to you know how many stocks there are you know 500 obviously in the s p 2 000 stocks in the russell 2000 yes those individual companies are much different from one another than any of these cryptocurrencies are different from the other you're talking about a different business with a different uh you know customer base different revenue business model risk profiles competitive you know they're businesses they generate income they pay dividends to the shareholders so depending on my outlook over a sector or an industry or a management team or all different things there's a lot of differences between stocks and it makes sense to diversify because things could happen to a business that you don't expect things can go wrong with the company uh that you don't anticipate but when it comes to all these cryptocurrencies as far as i'm concerned the biggest difference is the name i mean yes some of them are a little different you know proof of work proof of stake what the cap is bitcoin is 21 million there's nothing magical about that number there are plenty of other cryptocurrencies that also have caps there are other cryptocurrencies that have an inflation rate that's built in at a at a very low level i mean there's all sorts of gimmicks out there and they're going to keep coming up with you know new ones as long as there's demand as long as there are people out there willing to buy these things the supply is going to keep growing and growing and growing and eventually though you're going to have all this supply and the price is going to stop going up i mean it only goes up you know you talked about fiat currency being a ponzi these fiat cryptocurrencies are also ponzi's the only reason they go up is because people want to buy them and the only reason people want to buy them is because they think they can sell them to other people who are only buying them because they can do the same thing but eventually you run out of new people and the whole thing collapses i don't i don't care how high the price of bitcoin goes up even if it goes to a million dollars of bitcoin it's not going to affect me i'm not going to lose anything i don't want to own bitcoin and so what do i care how high the price goes if i'm never going to buy it the question is what are all the people going to do with their bitcoin when they want to buy something because i'm buying real things right i own real businesses i own real estate i own stuff that i can actually use if all you own is bitcoin you want to buy the stuff that our i already have everybody everybody who's buying bitcoin wants to wants what i already have i don't want any of their bitcoin so the risk is that you hold all your bitcoin and you ultimately can't buy anything with it because even if it goes to a million and now all the bitcoin millionaires and billionaires they all want to cash out they all want to buy a nice house they want to buy a new car they want to buy a boat they want to buy a plane they want to buy new clothes they want to travel okay sell your bitcoin who's going to buy it and yeah the price is going to collapse
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