저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 정부의 인플레이션 은폐와 연준의 저금리 기조가 물가를 계속 자극하므로 실질금리가 크게 낮아 인플레이션 억제는 어렵다는 주장. 인플레이션은 자연 현상이 아니라 정부가 돈을 찍어 만든 것이며, 이는 세금과 같은 효과를 낸다는 것이 핵심 논지다. 정부는 이를 탐욕적 기업, OPEC, 투기꾼, 노조 탓으로 돌린다. 인플레이션이 없었다면 가격이 하락했을 상황에서 물가가 오르지 않도록 막는 효과가 있어, 실제 체감 물가 상승은 정부 발표(CPI)보다 훨씬 크다고 주장한다. CPI가 실제 물가 상승을 제대로 포착하지 못한다는 점도 지적한다. 정부 지출 재원 조달은 세금, 차입, 화폐 발행 세 가지인데, 화폐 발행은 구매력을 빼앗는 세금과 같다고 설명한다. 세금은 누가 올렸는지 알 수 있지만 인플레이션 세금은 유권자가 인지하지 못해 정치인이 선호한다는 논리다. 연준 의장 파월 관련해서는 '일시적(transitory)' 인플레이션이라는 주장을 비판했고, 연준의 2년 후 금리 전망(2% 미만)을 문제 삼는다. 물가상승률 7%인데 금리가 2% 미만이면 실질금리가 마이너스이므로 인플레이션 억제가 불가능하며, 폴 볼커 시절처럼 금리를 훨씬 높여야 한다고 주장한다. 재정적자가 커질수록 연준이 화폐를 더 찍어 이를 monetize할 것이며, 연준은 의회의 요구에 따르는 기관이라고 비판한다. 전자 방식으로 돈을 만드는 것은 사실상 계좌에 숫자를 추가하는 것이므로 인플레이션을 더 키울 수 있다고 경고한다. 자산 관련 직접적 가격 예측 발언(삼성전자, 금, 비트코인 등)은 이 구간에서 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
and it's getting it from from the government that is simply creating it out of thin air now what you just said is so logical and so obvious and so inassailable why doesn't the government recognize what it's doing or is it doing this intentionally well certainly the government doesn't want the public to know that inflation is created by government because then they might oppose it obviously because it's a tax they want to blame inflation on the public on greedy corporations uh gouging their customers on opec for raising the price of oil speculators for trading in commodities sometimes even maybe greedy unions demanding higher wages the government wants to point the finger at everybody but itself and you know part of the problem is um inflation sometimes instead of causing prices to go up it prevents them from falling and so we don't actually see the harmful effects of inflation because you don't realize how much lower your cost of living would otherwise have been absent government created inflation because the beauty of capitalism uh what little we have left in this country is that capitalism is a force that leads to abundance that leads to efficiencies and economies of scale and so normally in a capitalist economy the cost of goods and services is going down and that means our standard of living is going up because we can afford to buy more stuff but when the government creates inflation oftentimes it prevents those benevolent price declines from happening but we don't complain about it because we don't realize the benefit that we never enjoyed so you know if if prices go up by two percent but they should have gone down by five percent the government says oh we have two percent inflation but we don't we have seven percent inflation prices are seven percent higher because the government inflated the money supply than what they would have been had the government not created the inflation in the first place so how does the government tax people by its inflationary behavior well the government needs money to spend and it has two ways of getting that money one is the honest way it could take it from us through taxation right where the government literally takes money out of our paychecks so we have less money to spend or they can persuade us to loan them the money which again we take money that we could have spent and we loan it to the government and the government spends it instead now of course that represents a claim on future taxpayers which are ultimately going to have to pay taxes to the government so the government can pay me back the money it borrowed but in either of those two ways taxation or legitimate borrowing money is sent from the private sector to the government and then the government puts it back into the private sector so there is no net increase in the money supply but there is a net reduction in my personal money supply because money that i send to the government cannot be spent by me but i have less to spend so i get less stuff the other way the government can pay for spending is just by printing money and then it gives that newly printed money to somebody else to spend it but when that happens even though the government didn't take my money the government took my purchasing power because now the the people who got that newly printed money they go out into the marketplace and spend it they compete with me to buy goods and services and that drives up the price of those goods and services and that additional price basically is the equivalent of a tax so let's say the government takes 10 percent of my money in taxes and now i have to reduce my spending by 10 because i only have 90 of my money so i buy less stuff but if the government leaves me with all my money but just prints up the equivalent of 10 of my money and gives it to another person and now that person goes and buys goods and services and the price of those goods and services go up by 10 i now have to reduce my spending by that same 10 percent in because i don't have an unlimited amount of money things now cost more so i end up in the same place regardless of whether the government takes my money or my purchasing power the difference is when the government takes my money i know who to blame right that you raise my taxes but when they steal my money through inflation i'm confused especially when the government is lying to the public about why prices are going up or in fact they're not or they're pretending they're not going up by using the cpi which doesn't even capture the real extent that prices are going up so i don't even know they're going up if i believe the government but what i do know is my standard of living is going down because you know i'm not able to afford as much stuff with my income but i'm not blaming government and i'm not taking my frustration out at the polls that's what the politicians don't want they don't like to raise taxes because the voters don't like paying higher taxes but if they steal their purchasing power through inflation the voters don't know they're getting robbed and they may still continue to re-elect the people who are robbing them when i was a senior at princeton there was a young kid who lived across the hall from me and his name was jay powell today that young kid i see you laughing he was a nice guy when he was 17 and 18 years old today he's ruining the economy as the chairman of the federal reserve how can he say with a straight face that inflation is transitory when the government is trying to borrow trillions yeah well apparently he stopped using the word transitory uh so i don't know what he's using now but he still expects inflation to come down i mean if you look at the fed's projection of interest rates two years from now by the end of 2023 the fed still expects rates to be below two percent now how could that be how can rates be that low if the fed is actually committed to fighting inflation because even if you believe the government's methodology for tracking prices prices are rising seven percent right now well how are you going to do anything about seven percent inflation when your interest rates are lower than two percent you've got negative real interest rates greater than five percent you're not going to make any headway fighting inflation unless you have real a positive real interest rates which means if inflation is seven percent you need interest rates of maybe eight percent nine percent i mean ask paul volcker i mean he's not alive anymore but you know they didn't take rates up to 20 you know for the fun of it right rates went up there because inflation was 13 and people thought it was going to get even worse and so the fed had to get in front of the inflation curve well powell is still way behind the inflation curve that curve is accelerating now and it's clearly going to accelerate more as the size of the deficits get bigger and bigger and the fed is then required to print even more money to monetize it now it's not legally required to do it in fact it should refuse to do it that's what the fed is supposed to do but unfortunately the fed does congress's bidding and whatever deficits congress runs the fed is happy to monetize them in fact the fed is encouraging the government to run bigger deficits specifically so it can monetize them so when you say print money they don't literally print money don't they just add zeros to the bank accounts of their favorite bankers yeah you know they don't need a printing press anymore because most of the money is electronic it's just an entry computer entry into a bank deposit and so the federal government has an account at the fed and the fed just adds uh numbers into that account uh you know by pushing a button or whatever whatever they have to do stroke a key uh but that's it uh so you can create even more inflation because in the past maybe you were at least constrained by the availability of paper and ink but now i guess as long as they have an internet connection they can keep
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