"Ray Dalio on the Future of US Sanctions and Global Economic Dynamics"

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달리오는 미국 제재(sanctions)가 달러 채권 매도와 금리 상승을 부르며 자본전쟁이 진행 중이라고 진단. 현금은 인플레이션(8.5%)으로 구매력이 손실되는 쓰레기라 주장하고, 물가연동채(TIPS) 등 분산투자를 권고. 암호화폐는 과도 집중을 경계하며 소량 보유는 괜찮다는 입장. 기업·국가는 현금흐름과 재무제표가 중요해질 것이라 봄.

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01. there is a selling of dollar denominated debt so you're seeing that the bond market is going down in today's video we dive into Ray Doo's insights on the shifting landscape of global economic power particularly focusing on the future of us sanctions and their impact on the global economy Dalo explores the Dynamics of capital Wars the risks associated with holding cash and debt and the strategies Nations and individuals might consider in a world of rising inflation and geopolitical tensions join us as we unpack these complex issues and understand how they could shape the future of global economic Dynamics stay tuned right now debt is dollars any currency the way you hold it is you hold it in the form of debt you don't hold it just in paper and um uh because it there's a rising inflation and because there is a lot of printing of money and because there's also a greater fear on a number of countries that they too could be sanctioned there is a selling of dollar denominated debt so you're seeing that the bond market is going down that's right and so there is that that Dynamic that's going on the capital Wars um are the ones that accelerate immediately before um the uh the military Wars usually the coffers are empty they're printing a lot of money and then they're trying to use uh economics as a weapon so we're we're in that part of the cycle now um in terms of how this will transpire I think there are um there are three big questions that we're going to learn about or get answers to pretty quickly um the first is does uh Putin and Russia uh win or lose um I'll describe win as um what he wanted at the outset which is when for Russia would be to have um the Ukraine H um be some not non-threatening position such as a neutrality a guaranteed neutrality and for Russia to have control over Eastern provinces and and for Russia not to be um economically devastated um instead to be maybe have at something like a 10 or 12% decline in GDP and for Putin to be in power if those four things happen then the cost of his actions will have been worth the uh what was obtained from that and that would be viewed as a win um it would be then also a loss from the Western countries the world is looking at the power of American sanctions um because American sanctions are the greatest power the United States has if it was a military power it the world has uh come to the position that a number of countries have had um an equal ability to do harm to the United States militarily as the United States was have have to do to them and so we don't have a dominant military power anymore but we do have a uh dominant um sanctions power so if we're still ahead of China um in the United States ability to influ have economic sanctions is much ahead because it controls the world's Reserve currency that's a biggest asset but in weapon in the dollar um it is leading those to get around and not want to hold dollars because they get worried that they're going to be confiscated so so we will see if that dollar um sanctions power we'll see how powerful it is if it isn't very powerful that's going to be a problem um because others will perceive our weakness well and they'll also realize then um uh then you only have military power I mean think about this way if this war is not a difficult War for the United States and Europe for the most important it it produces higher oil prices in the like but um while Russia is throwing in military we are throwing in sanctions and these sanctions don't cause LI cost lives um it's not a military war uh so we're fighting it with sanctions and they're fighting it with um with military if you didn't have that how would you fight this war it would be a much more difficult situation and the third thing that we're seeing is how the world is lining up the world is lining up uh which you know there are in Wars typically a axis and ex uh and Allied powers and you could see by the actions that are taken by as to which are lining up um who voted in favor of what at the United Nations who is allowing what rules uh who was trading with the other party who um Russia actually put out a list um who are friendly and adversarial countries um you'll see at the next G20 meeting uh who will be in favor of Russia attending that meeting and who will be in favor of it not attending and that's making clear how the sides are lining up so you're seeing those sides line up and all sides are in preparation for war well first thing is you realize that uh holding cash and debt assets is a bad thing so a lot of um money uh is in cash because people think that cash is the safest investment but they are measuring that in the amount of money that they get nominal returns and they say it doesn't wiggle much but think about it um it's lost as of the most recent statistics 8 and a half% over the last um inflation is 8 and a half% and they received virtually no interest rate in cash and so there was an eight and a half% loss of buying power as a result of inflation and so psychology should change and is in the process of changing to realize that you have to think in terms of buying power not the number of dollars you have and you have to think um how much are are your is your buying power and so the worst thing is to be in cash like I say cash is trash and to be into and to be out of the bonds um the next thing is to have a diversified portfolio of assets um the diversification um means um some assets that are um uh inflation hedge prone for example you're better off to own an inflation index Bond than a regular Bond um yes and inflation index bonds because their returns are tied to inflation yeah um I think the punchline is if you take a look at it uh it's it's simple it's uh like a regular Bond except um its payments are linked to the inflation so they compensate you for inflation it's one type of asset the flooding into any one thing is a is an issue but the but moving from the nominal Bonds in which the government just says I'll give you this amount of money and it has the unbel UN unbelievable and unlimited ability to print the money it gives you um it would favor inflation index bonds um and it can be other assets uh you know some people would say something in terms of cryptocurrencies or it might be um uh th those other assets um I think I think that too much PE people pay too much attention to one uh at at the extreme of the other you know um that either somebody's all crypto um or they're all gold or they're all something and I uh I believe that that's a challenge I think that um crypto like gold is not a productivity earning asset and it can be controlled by governments uh in lots of ways it's been outlawed in a number of places and it also can be monitored the Privacy um element is not uh secure from governments doing monitoring and and so um and the size of crypto is about the size of um Microsoft you know it's all crypto combined and so to um be overly concentrated in it in my opinion is a mistake um uh but to have some of it uh is a good is a good thing so the question is always uh what amount of it so that's um you know I have a little bit about it I'd probably shock you about how little I have chocked me about how much how much you have uh but having some of it um so the and and other things I would say is that geographic location is important in other words not just all in us and US dollar assets um I would say that the three things that that again I'm looking at if I go down countries is first um are they earning more than they're spending do they have a good income statement in balance sheet this is going to be very important in the period ahead ahead because the amount of credit that's going to be available to bridge the gap between spending and earning uh cash flows and so on is going to be quite narrower so a lot of companies even that were able to raise cash um and not have good cash flow because of maybe growth expectations in the future we'll find it more difficult that'll be true for individuals it'll be true for um countries so is it does it have a good income statement and balance sheet will be important the second is um places how are they working with each other is there civil civility or is there Civil War on the brink of Civil War because countries where they work well together they're productive are going to have a real real competitive Advantage orderly places safe places to be well um there are Parts in the United States that are wor better than Parts other parts of the United States I'm now talking about the like where you want to be and then that'll be but yes the it could be bonds it could be places I'm talking now the places the um uh for example we just had the shooting in New York City um on the subway and and New York City is becoming more dangerous Chicago's becoming more dangerous places Chic San Francisco's becoming more dangerous um you're seeing people leave some places for other places um you're seeing them leave I don't know to Texas Texas is Austin or uh to Florida and so on so there are differences in um in in with within the United States and differences from the United States