저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 빅테크는 성장기 종료로 현금창출 기업 단계에 진입했지만, 시장은 바닥을 다지는 중이며 지금부터 분할 매수를 시작할 때라는 낙관적 시각. 빅테크 구조 변화: 과거의 무제한 성장 국면이 끝나고 밸류에이션 제약 속에서 비용을 엄격히 관리하는 현금cow 사업모델로 전환 중이라고 진단. AAPL·META·GOOGL·MSFT 등은 기관 보유 비중이 커 미국채 같은 안전자산 역할을 하며, 이들이 긴축 신호를 보낸 것은 다른 기업에 대한 경고라고 설명. 바닥 전망: 시장은 바닥을 다지고 통합 중이며 3~5% 정도 추가 하락 여지는 있으나 고점보다 저점에 훨씬 가깝다고 판단. 비이성적 과열이 빠지는 건전한 과정으로 해석. 연준 풋(Fed put): 과거 연준이 변동성 시 매수자 역할을 해왔으나 이것이 시장 가격 발견을 왜곡했다고 비판. 빅테크의 과잉 복지·인력 경쟁도 그 결과라고 주장. 금리 사이클: 1983년 이후 금리 인상기마다 주식시장이 초기에 바닥을 형성하는 경향이 있었다는 데이터를 제시하며, 현재는 인상 7개월차로 종착점에 가까워지고 있다고 봄. 단기 매도 원인: 일부 스마트머니의 매도는 올해 이익과 상계하기 위한 세금손실 수확(tax loss harvesting) 때문이라고 설명. 경기 리스크: 2023년 하드랜딩 가능성을 인정하며, 실업률 5~6%, 변동금리 모기지 상환 부담 급증 등을 우려 요인으로 제시. 중국·환율·파이프라인 폭발 등 각종 루머는 시장을 흔들지 못했다고 평가. 요약하면 출연자는 단기 리스크를 인정하면서도 중기적으로 바닥 형성 및 점진적 매수 기회를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
well it definitely is the end of an era I think it is sort of like the the end of this phase of big Tech where you had this you know unfettered growth where these business models were largely unassailable and they you know were really just fighting to grow into their valuation and just generate more Revenue to justify where they um where they traded at and now it's this next phase where they have to operate more like a cash cow business and so you know it's an acknowledgment that the growth is tapering it's an acknowledgment that they're going to trade on a pretty tight band in terms of multiple which means that they have to manage expenses much more tightly which means that they can't have a really broad-based surface area in which to operate an experiment you have to keep the experiments small you have to manage your expenses you can't have employees basically you know run over the place management has to have a firm hand in in dictating strategy and what people work on so I think all of that signals that I actually Jason I don't think this is the end I actually think it's the beginning because these companies Apple Facebook Google maybe a little bit Microsoft are the most sensitive to valuation because they are the most widely held right these are the these are the you know the equivalent of U.S treasuries in the equity markets the safest most predictable Safe Haven in times of stress if you want to own big chunky cash flow generating businesses that you know are relatively unassailable you couldn't pick four better businesses than those and so the fact that they see enough in the Horizon to say that we need to batten down the hatches should be a warning to everybody else my prediction now is that I think the markets are bottoming and Consolidated and this is the time I think to start nibbling and start getting ready to really rip the money in and I think there's enough signals every day that kind of like tell me at least that on the margin it's time because I think the markets do a reasonably good job of digesting news and then pricing the forward reality right like today's price is really everything we already know and so the real guess is what's about to happen in the future and from my perspective I'm actually pretty starting to get a little constructive here I think that um when when companies like Facebook really do this and you know like if you think about it one way the financial markets have always had this thing that we have called the fed put what does that mean a put is essentially the right to sell something and what Market participants have always known for the last decade is that if things got very hairy if there was uncertainty in the market the Federal Reserve would and they have consistently stepped in to create a buyer of Last Resort and so it always eliminated that last part of true you know Supply demand balance because they would just come and say don't worry in many ways in Tech what the big tech companies were were that you know you could never really find what the true market clearing price for an engineer was or what the true amount of expenses you should spend on office space or you know free services because you always always had these companies which was an escalating arms race you know if one company had a massage the next company had gyms in massage and physical therapists and the other company would have buses to take you to the gyms in massage and therapists in the next company would have protein shakes that were freshly made you know and it just kept escalating and escalating because the costs didn't matter and they wanted if nothing else to get that marginal engineer or product manager or business person to work at their company which eliminated the risk that they would actually start something to disrupt them blocker strategy is very real you should on the blocker strategies is very real so when you take this big Tech put out of the market you will get true price Discovery and you will find out what the real price should be for this kind of an engineer that kind of a product manager you'll find out what are the real expenses you need to bear in order to build a real lasting business and you'll be able to sort through all of that stuff out so I think it's a really good moment and again it's yet another indication to me that I think broadly speaking the markets are now starting to stabilize all the irrational behavior is starting to exit the system the party is in the last few hours volumes going down the alcohol is being taken away people are hanging around with a little bit lights are coming on they're like I've been here a little too long and I think that that's a very healthy process for an economy and I think that that's what's happening right now so I'm constructive I'm a little bullish I'll go I'll go out on a limb I think you know we could be three to five percent from the lows but we're more near the lows than the highs is sleepwalking I do not want Amazon okay to control my vacuum cleaner I'm just gonna put that on the record okay because you know where the dirt is they know which rooms are dirty what happens if they get a hold of room but I'll tell you what happens the next thing is they're going to go after Dyson okay and then once they do that they're going to put chips in these things and all of a sudden they're going to know exactly what Jason said what are you eating where your dust bunnies are overwhelmingly I think where the where the problem stands is a central bank that was the same through both of those administrations and I think we should probably focus on them because you're right what they did was excessive and what they essentially said is that if there is volatility Beyond a certain amount and people cry Uncle we will not allow the markets to sort themselves out in an orderly way we will step in and that's what you know again what we just talked about the Central Bank put in this case the FED interventions yeah and these interventions really uh pervert a market because you don't know what's going on and that has huge ramifications in the real economy so Nick if you just throw up this chart the the thing that is really important here and what this chart shows is essentially all of the hiking cycles that we've gone through since 1983 so 83 87 80 94 99 04 15 and the current one and here's what I just want to call out for you guys what's incredible is that other than the one in 83 so this is sort of like you know that last big one what we've seen is that the stock market has a tendency to immediately go to the conclusion very early on in a rate hiking cycle and now why is that important for normal folks listening to this thing well the reason why that's important is right now we're in month seven of a cycle we obviously don't know how long it's going to be but the odds are improving every day that we're near the end versus the beginning and why that's important is again if you're thinking about when to you know buy equities for example this is a really instructive guide because what it tells you is the closer we get to the end or more importantly the closer we psychologically know that the end is coming we start buying and that and that's just a broad-based statement that has been true so you know what you see right now I think is really interesting which is that despite all the bad information oh my gosh the nordstream pipeline blew up could it have been sabotaged was it the CIA was it the Russians oh my gosh big Tech is slowing spending and firing people China's in a coup I don't know if you saw that rumor yeah how about something more benign you know the the US you know us yuan is really trading in a crazy way the U.S euro is trading in a crazy way the U.S pound is going crazy despite all of that every time we trade down the market consolidates very quickly and we sort of like so I think we're forming a bottom I do think that Stan is right we are going to see a hard Landing recession something will break in 2023.
I hope it doesn't I hope it doesn't affect a lot of normal people but it's likely but at the same time to find hard Landing us so I'll tell you in a second but at the same time I think what's happening is in the equity and financial markets we are consolidating a bottom because we're seeing through to that end state and this is where cheap Equity gets bought so why is there a reason to sell now I think a lot of the people that are selling the smart money sellers that I talk to are essentially right now selling to book in capital losses to offset other capital gains from this year a term that's called tax loss harvesting and so if you have gains through this year which some of us do this is the great moment to just sell the losers to book the loss to net it out so that you can minimize your taxes for next year that's probably I think where we are at and I think that's why they're still Consolidated by so what is the hard Landing Jason if I had to predict I think what David said is absolutely right you're going to see unemployment get to an awkward and uncomfortable number five six percent I think could be something that we see and I think you're going to see a lot more companies pull way back on their spend because demand is going to really modulate oh you know I'll give you a crazy example you know what happens to all the people in the United States that are on armed mortgages right adjustable rate mortgages when those things reset they're going to reset two 300 basis points higher their monthly payments are going are going to go nuclear it's already happened I literally had a family member call me about this and they were like what do I do so in the UK in the UK 40 percent of all
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