Jim Rogers: Stay With What You Know To Survive This Harsh Economy

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01. the way to survive is not to listen to me or other people just stay with what you know if people invest in only what they themselves know a lot about then they will know what to do if things go right and they will know what to do if things go wrong if I told you to buy X and it went up you wouldn't know what to do if it went up if you don't know why you bought it and if it went if it went down you'd blame it on me yeah you would know what to do man you'd blame it on Jim Rogers but you wouldn't know what to do so please if you want to be successful stay with what you know and if you don't know anything do nothing put your money in the bank and wait I always would just look for cheap things to invest in I didn't care about where they were or what they were it never occurred to me I thought everybody did that you know I would find markets that were cheap and I would invest in them some of them were considered stray I can remember when Germany was considered strange to to American investors but I was just looking for cheap places cheap things and I would invest in them then people heard about it they said oh my gosh you must be crazy but they kept working and so people said he's Indiana Jones he goes to places where the people don't go and looks for adventure yes I did look for adventure in my own life as well but also in my investing life but it wasn't looking to have a name it was just looking for something cheap there was a study which was done recently and that the number one ambition for people the number one dream not everybody but is to get in your car and drive around the world or your motorcycle or whatever it was my dream too I've done it twice as you know I did it once on a motorcycle and once in a car because I wanted to see the world and I wanted to have Adventure has the world changed enormously in my even between my two trips the world changed enormously you know my first trip you could you couldn't use credit cards you know about the first trip we're going around everything was very very complicated and it was the Berlin Wall there was communism there was red China there was Soviet Union all that's gone now Everything Has Changed dramatically whether we like it or not the 21st century is going to be the century of Asia in the century of China you know 40 years ago there was no China now it's the second largest economy in the world etc etc they're gigantic changes that Prosperity taking place in Asia and I mean I can look out the window and see it anybody who doesn't know about it can just look out the window or come to Asia you'll see it's astonishing the changes that have been taking place but you know the same thing happened in England in the early 19th century astonishing changes took look at America you know America was absurd 150 years ago people thought it was a joke they quickly learned that America was oddishing success as you probably know China's got the largest foreign currency reserves in the world Japan is number two Korea has huge numbers many Asian countries have staggering amounts of assets that they have built up so the people with money is coming to Asia but also some immigration nothing like it was in America the 19th century or even the 20th century but no people are I live in Singapore now and I see more and more foreigners uh all the time somebody's coming not just with their money but with their bodies as well it doesn't matter what I think Goldman Sachs are smarter than I am if we all know that we have to listen to Goldman Zach it is certainly happening it has certainly happened as I said in the last 40 years the astonishing changes that have taken place and continue to take place and you know the United States is the largest better nation in the history of the world I don't like that but it's a fact I have to deal with that 40 years ago America was still a creditor Nation so changes are taking place and the world if you want to be successful you have to recognize changes and adapt to those changes do I like the fact that America is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world no I have two teenage children but those are facts and we have to deal with Americans who developed a huge amount of power over the last hundred years been longer than 70 years no question about that and America continues to have a lot of power but history shows that when countries get over extended either economically militarily politically whatever they usually Peak and go into decline I'm not talking my opinion this is a simple historic fact you know 100 years ago Britain was the richest most powerful country in the world there was no number two 50 years later it was bankrupt literally bankrupt the IMF had to bail out what had been the richest most powerful country in the world go back in history it has always been changing and it always will yeah when countries get over extended they usually wind up in Decline for them and many others too Spain France lots of places yes you're right well what should we do we should we should cut spending with an ax no with a chainsaw you know we we have this gigantic debt and it gets higher every day we should cut spending we should start reducing our debt are we going to do it of course not David come on if you ran on a policy in Washington maybe you would get elected but after a short time people would say admit this is very painful we don't want to do this anymore nobody likes pain even if they know what's good for you so no is America going to do it no I mean I wish we would but I I know simple facts America is certainly I mean if you said to most people in America where do you want to go they would say America would you where do you want to invest they would say America but that's because most people still don't know the facts just as many people did not know the facts about the UK or about other countries that peaked and went into the climb yes no America's great we've got great PR from great movies great TV Great lots of things but that does not mean that beneath the surface there are not serious problems developing David I said I have teenage children I don't like them it's a good time to be an old American it is not a good time to be a young American we had the longest bull market in American history you know starting in 2009 but things were great in the U.S that's the longest in American history anyway it doesn't mean it can't last 40 years but it never has countries always get up when things are good for a while people get overextended they get over confident they think it's new investors come in new investors call their friends and tell them I've discovered this new thing called the stock market it's so much fun and you can make money and it's easy it's easy to make money you know and that's always happens at the end of what it has always has happened it's happening again things get over extended things get expensive and we leave we always have a bear Market this is not the first time this has happened back to what I said before they should only put their money where they themselves know a lot about what they're putting their money otherwise when things go wrong you don't know what to do and things probably will go wrong again you mentioned the 70s you know David we had big inflation in those days and as you point out it's worse now David in 1980 the interest rate on United States government treasury bills was over 21 that's not a typo they had to raise interest rates extremely it would be extremely high now in order to kill inflation interest rates are nothing compared to 21 now so if we're going to solve this problem we're going to have to face a lot of pain do I like it no but I have to deal with facts you know it's only less than two years ago that the Federal Reserve was saying there's not going to be inflation and then they said it's temporary don't worry this is transitory you know these guys don't know what they're doing most Central Bank officials or bureaucrats or academics they don't know how the world works I just want to preserve their job you said they've raised interest to make sure they have but I repeat they were 21 on treasury bills treasury bills a short-term treasury bills uh last time around so no we're going to have to have a lot of pain before we solve this problem