Jim Rogers Warns of Biggest Economic Collapse Ever

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결론: 더 큰 약세장이 올 것이며, 현재 하락장은 아직 끝나지 않았고 전쟁 관련 평화 소식 등으로 일시 반등이 있을 수 있으나 그 후 더 큰 하락장이 남아 있다는 전망. [시장 상황 진단] 현재 S&P500은 고점 대비 20% 하락해 기술적으로 약세장이며, 2분기 GDP 추정치가 마이너스로 기술적 침체 조건도 충족된다고 봄. 워싱턴이 이를 인정하지 않을 뿐이라고 주장. 과거 하락폭(50% 이상) 기준으로 하면 약 30% 추가 하락 여지가 있다는 계산을 제시. [향후 전망과 반등 시나리오] 현재 비관론이 크게 쌓여 있어 우크라이나 전쟁 해결 등 평화 소식이 나오면 유가·곡물·주식이 함께 오르는 큰 반등이 나올 수 있다고 봄. 다만 그 반등이 마지막 큰 상승일 가능성이 높고, 그때 매도할 것을 권고. 반등이 와도 약세장 자체는 끝나지 않으며, 지금보다 더 심한 약세장이 남아 있다고 봄. [부채·인플레이션·금리] 2008년 위기는 과도한 부채가 원인이었고, 현재는 그때보다 부채가 훨씬 많음. 미국 부채는 2009년 이후 수배 증가, 일본 등 여러 국가도 부채 급증. 인플레이션을 잡으려면 금리를 매우 높게 올려야 하며, 심각한 경기침체와 파산이 불가피하다고 주장. 감세 같은 공급측 접근으로 침체 없이 해결 가능하다는 견해에는 원칙적으로 찬성하나, 돈을 찍는 상황에서는 인플레이션이 악화될 것이라고 봄. [투자 전략] 인플레이션 국면에서는 농산물·에너지 등 가격이 오르는 실물 자산이 유리하며, 이들은 이 국면이 끝나기 전 더 오를 것이라고 봄. 공매도 방법을 아는 경우 많은 주식(미국 외 포함)을 공매도해 수익을 낼 수 있다고 언급. 방법을 모르면 현금을 은행에 두고 기다리는 것이 낫다고 조언(연 1% 수익이 연 -20%보다 낫다는 논리). [금리 전망] 금리는 결국 인플레이션 효과를 상쇄할 만큼 높아질 것이라고 봄. IMF의 물가 안정 전망(내년 안정, 2023년까지 금리 상승 등)에는 IMF를 오랫동안 신뢰하지 않는다며 동의하지 않음. [비트코인] 고점 대비 70% 하락한 비트코인에 대해 '지금은 매수하지 않겠다'고 명확히 밝히며, 어떤 가격대에서도 사지 않을 것이라고 답함. 거래 수익을 내는 사람도 있지만 정부가 통화 통제권을 포기하지 않아 화폐로 성공하기 어렵다고 봄. [농산물] 농산물 매도세는 조정의 일부로 정상적이며, 인플레이션 헤지로 농산물 투자는 여전히 유효하다고 답함. 단 평화가 오면 곡물 가격이 일시 하락할 수 있어 그때가 매수 기회라고 봄. [달러] 달러가 유로보다 강세인 상황에서 본인이 달러를 많이 보유하고 있다고 밝히나, 이는 달러가 건전해서가 아니라 '재난'이라는 점을 강조하며 보유 이유를 설명. [종목 언급 없음] 삼성전자·SK하이닉스·엔비디아 등 대상 자산 목록 중 직접 방향을 언급한 종목은 없음. 개별 주식은 공매도 가능성만 일반론으로 언급.

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01. what I have said is we're going to have more bear markets we've always had bear market now in Washington they say no we're not everything is okay now no more bear Market if you believe them don't listen to me but I know more bear markets are coming would I have said is the next one is going to be the worst in my lifetime maybe we're in the minute now I I don't know 2008 we had a problem with too much debt since 2008 the debt oh my god look out the window the dead is Skyrock everywhere so the next bear Market has to be horrible well assuming we're in one right now and we know that the S P 500 is already down 20 so sure looks like we are the ones that you have referred to as being the worst in your lifetime the s p fell by at least 50 so by that calculation we still have at least another 30 percent to go down here but before this bear Market is over of course many stocks are going to go down I'm 70 80 90 percent that's the way bear markets work now of course that's going to happen I just don't know when it is so it's going to be worse because we have even more debt in the system first of all it's been 13 years since we've had big problems in them that's the longest in American history could go for 30 years who knows who knows that it's already overdue on the historic basis and it's very very expensive and it always goes down a lot when it goes now we have very high valuations we have staggery debt we have a lot of new investors coming in I'm not sure Washington disputes that we're in a bear Market hard to dispute that when the S P 500 is down 20 percent so by technical definition we're in a bear Market but I do get to a point that many in Washington aren't acknowledging that we're in a recession although we may very well already be in one second quarter GDP estimates expected to be negative so then again by the technical definition to or is a negative growth we are in a recession but to your point if any in Washington haven't quite come to terms with that or admit to that but what is your outlook at law especially as the FED tightens more aggressively well she said we're not in a recession when we were they didn't even know it that the recession had started and likewise Central Bank people my Outlook is if we have peace if something is a lot of pessimism around right now huge amounts of Passenger whenever there's a lot of pessimism it often leads to a rally if something happens in Ukraine it'll be a big rally oil will go down cranes will go down stocks and everything will go up for a while I don't know what will cause a rally but we're probably going to have a big rally that rally is I hope I was smart enough to sell that rally because that's probably the last big round it could be very big rally but that's probably the last time and that would or could be triggered by a resolution to the conflict in the war in Ukraine is what you could see as the possible trigger for a rally obvious for me would be if something happened in Ukraine I have no idea I don't have any inside information but if something happens that would cause a big round you're saying we're currently in a bear Market but not necessarily the one that you anticipate will be the worst in your lifetime I have seen some astonishing bear Market not just in the U.S all over the world you don't think that we're in the beginning of the worst bear Market of your life to Define it that way yes but if there were peace we might make new Highs but still that would not negate the bear market so we're in a bear Market we could still see a rally on positive diplomatic developments out of Russia Ukraine But ultimately we're still owed another huge bear Market worse than anything we see before even if it's not this one if I may recap you know what the debt has happened I mean the U.S has increased his debt by several times since 2009.

02. Japan oh my God they can't even count the debt in Japan many countries in the world the debt just goes higher and higher and higher 2008 was because of too much of that it's much worse now what is it going to take to tame this inflation they don't know how to fix it 1980 interest rates on treasury bills U.S treasury bills were over 20 percent that's not a typo 20 insured inflation it solves the problem finally no because we've made so many mistakes Stakes this time around interest rates will have to go very very high we will have a serious recession many people will go bankrupt we're going to have a lot of problems there's no other way to solve the problem we have a choice we need to raise interest rates a lot and have a lot of pain or we let it people continue to print money and have horrible horrible inflation and cause even more pain there's not much not many choices they're saying that if you take a supply-side economic approach and you cut taxes for example that we could get out of the situation without a recessional certainly not one as ugly as would need to be to team interest rates by just increasing to tame inflation by just increasing interest rates I am all for cutting taxes it's always better for any country any economy the fewer taxes the better if we cut taxes we're going to have big push into the economy but while these guys are printing money it's just going to make inflation worse I don't know how we solved the problem of too much inflation without pain what can an investor do in this environment well first of all the investors should only invest in what they themselves know a lot about they shouldn't listen to hot tips on TV even on Kitco news that's a terrible way to invest stay with what you know I can tell you some of the things I'm doing when you have inflation if you own the things that go up in price you make money I mean agricultural goods are going to go higher before this is over energy will go higher before it's over everything will go higher before it's over real good if you own those kind of things you will do well if you know how to sell short and you can sell short many things many stocks not just in America all over the world and make a lot of money if you don't know how to do either of those put your money in the bank and wait it's better to earn one percent per year than to lose 20 percent per year here and bear markets lead to Big losses can you stay in cash in such an inflationary environment the interest rates will go higher though one thing about interest rate in inflation they will eventually go high enough to offset the effects of inflation in terms of the Outlook of the IMF the international monetary fund they think that inflation globally will likely be tamed by next year when rate hike starts to work the IMF saying that Global interest rates will keep Rising until 2023 and then heated prices will begin to cool in response to actions from central banks do you agree I've been reversing a long time I have never known the IMF to be fighting about anything I don't even bother I mean the best thing we could all do as a policy IMF we're not because there are too many people who make money off the IMF they've never been right about anything Bitcoin not quite that low but is on sale 70 down from its all-time high would you buy Bitcoin now no no what I said was I wish I had bought Bitcoin at a dollar for five dollars I wish I'd bought IBM in 1914.

03. I wish I'd done a lot of things I wish I'd bought Amazon at a dollar and all I said was I wish is there a level that you would buy Bitcoin at there's no level in which I would buy those cryptocurrencies uh unless something dramatic changes no answers no Bitcoin is wonderful for people who buy it and sell it and trade it I know people who are having fun trading it nothing wrong with that but if it ever becomes successful as currency which they say it will no government's going to allow that nobody no government wants to lose its control they all love their Monopoly they're not going to give up their Monopoly I wish they would but they aren't why are we seeing a sell-off in agriculture now nothing goes straight up or straight down things go up like this they're always Corrections along the way and maybe there's something else going on but in my experience who Corrections are normal and common they happen all the time is investing in agriculture still a wise move if you're trying to hedge it against this current inflation my answer is yes but my plan is if there's peace in Ukraine agriculture is going to go to all grain prices are going to go down for a while and that's the time to buy we have the dollar performing incredibly well stronger than the Euro at the moment why is that I own a lot of US dollars as we've discussed before the reason I own them not because it's a sound currency it's a disaster