저자: VijayKedia · 외국인
요약 보기
Vijay Kedia는 FII 영향력이 줄고 국내 개인·SIP 자금이 시장을 주도한다고 봄. 소형주 과열은 일부 조정 중이며 지수는 단기 횡보(±5%) 예상. 연말 이후 선거·정치 불확실성 존재. 인프라와 항공주에 긍정적이며 Atul Auto·Vi Sera 등 보유 종목 언급. 옵션·F&O 투기는 비판적.
다듬은 글
Before We Talk About the Sanworth and What Lies Ahead? Let's actually recap what has been the biggest learning for you from the Samvat which is gone past. I mean the one behind us now? I think there are so many learnings Prashant you know but one biggest learning and observation of whatever you call it.
Of course we learn by observing things. What I have understood in this market and this I have made a court also for this. That influence of FIIs in this market is receding. Now it is no more a hot issue because FI is selling you money left right and centre but retail investors are taking over the market.
So there's influence no more there in this market. This Is The Biggest Learning Earlier We Used To Everyday We Used To To To To To Talk About About About About About About. There ₹1 of selling you used to have an impact of ₹80 for example. So that is the biggest learning that don't be dependent and don't look at what the FIs are doing.
So that is the I think biggest computer. I have heard this many times from veteran investors like K who are in the old market. They say that no matter what happens, the market never declines. Or I mean you know I think we have seen Rs 67000 crore of selling daily but the market has been very reliable right and that is largely due to the local buying which just came in.
He has sold goods worth lakhs of crores. Hearing 1.5 lakh crore, it seemed as if his 500 crores had an impact of 500 crores on the market. They sold goods worth ₹1.5 lakh crore there in the last one and a half years. And the FI took them very cleanly. So the influence of FI has reduced a lot. Correct.
So tell us something on this, you have written something which you know songs, they say a picture is worth a thousand words but I think songs are also equally powerful if not more. Tell me something about what you have written. Yes, I have written a song. This is the stanza of this song which tells the same thing and that in the name of fi fi fidya, do not sell your property.
When they come to buy the shares, there will be 9, two, 11 for free. They blow this stuff, what does their father lose? Whoever follows them repeats these two lines: uh, I am dead, mummy, uh, I am dead, mummy, outstanding sir, outstanding, absolutely right and in a very musical way, the flow of SIP, Vijay Bhai, is now coming in 2 billion dollars every month, so according to you, it will increase further from here.
Where are we? Meaning it is at the extreme. Are you at your peak or is this just the beginning? Where are you at the peak brother? It comes to ₹16,000 crore per month. He is there for 30 days in a month. ₹500 crore comes daily. If you look at it broadly, even ₹500 crore is not a drop in the ocean of the stock market.
Oh, this is a new beginning for us. Ok. It would have been only Rs 7,8000 crore a year and a half ago or two or three years ago. Now this 16000 crores has come. I feel that this is such a big fashion and trend and such a big revolution is taking place in the Indian capital market. If I am not wrong, this will amount to ₹16,000 crore daily.
I don't know whether it took 5 years or 7 years. What is ₹500 crore, friend? Nothing is ₹500 crore. This is just the beginning, brother. But the change that has happened is due to Covid. You know people stayed at home. Let's start investing and make money for people. And people also say that there has been no major correction.
That push that you get and you realize that you have made money, it is because of your hard work and skill but the market has also supported you, so if that push has not come then do you think it will make a difference, whenever that push is going to come, will it make a difference or not, I do not think that this ship related issue or any other issue has come due to Covid, of course when a train moves in one direction, if something moves in one direction within a trend, then everything helps it and it moves forward, right?
Because even without Covid, the market of Rs 10,000-12,000 crores would have been there. The figure of 10,000 used to come even before Covid. So it is not that it increased only because of Covid. I think this is a big thing because of demography. The talk about demography that our economists do and all the foreign ones do and the Indian and mutual fund managers do that even today there are 3 crore accounts, as we hear in mutual funds and these youth who are coming, their aspirations that we talk about, you say aspirations of 2000-2500 crores, when if the per capita GDP income crosses, then after that the sale of white goods increases, the sale of consumer goods increases, friend brother, what can be bigger than the biggest mutual fund or investors of the stock market, tell me what can be a bigger trend than this that first you will put your security, brother, first you will do your savings, our Indian economy is completely dependent on savings for thousands of 10,000, 500 years, so as so many mutual funds are coming, so many schemes are coming, so many So many good fund managers are coming, the way all your TV channels are exposing this, whatever they are exposing in the sense and in a good way, this is creating a trend among the people that yes brother and every time this is the story of this country, I feel that Covid must have helped them.
Even if it didn't happen, it had to happen. So this action would not have happened in space but it would have happened. Meaning, that trend of course is nothing. And it is not necessary that everyone earns money as soon as they come. You know, by saying this there is a reshuffling going on in it. They keep coming and going.
So SIP on a SI I remember you wrote a very funny one. Please recite one, two, three lines. I had written a song on SIP, yes SIP, and that was this, by doing sipsip [voice of singing] how much capital I collected, when I got the capital, there was prosperity in the house as well, when I got happiness, my life changed [voice of singing] my whole life was shattered, I will not have this illusion of trading anymore [voice of singing] both the things, the illusion of trading was shattered and SIP, both the things, because what happens is that the people who come new, the concept of SIP is still not clear to them, brother, they think that this is not about filling a pot drop by drop, they think that this is about filling a pot drop by drop, they have a problem here, they bring a pot and try to pick up these drops, they just tell you to put drop by drop and your pot will be filled.
So what will they do if they have to take a drop from the pitcher ? He will trade further. I am talking about trading i.e. future options. You will do that F&O. So if you do F&O then what will happen to you is that you will earn in two and you will be out in the third. By saying this SEBI says that 90% of the people lose money.
I think 99% lose money. Only the broker earns and whatever charges you pay like SEBI charges, transaction cost, service tag, brokerage etc. all these are the same. But the volume in the market has increased because of options, the figures are absolutely stounding. In my opinion, the options market is 100x better than the futures market and of course, cash is nowhere compared to this.
So the culture is going there in a way. So that requires more education. Right now culture but it's going on in the wrong way. I don't know how many scripts there are in FNO segments. May be 200 300 I don't remember how many scripts there are. So what volume you are talking about is that volumes are created only in that f no scripts.
That is not getting created in mid cap and small cap. They are still liquid. You go to sell 5000 shares in any small cap. It will be 20% down circuit. You go to buy it will be 20% up circuit. So we are benefiting from it, who is getting this benefit, this is a matter to be understood, is it happening to you brokers only or to their intermediaries, what volume is it giving to the market because of this, what difference is it making to the market, you say that liquidity is being created, those shares are already liquid, friend, will you create liquidity in Reliance by doing futures, do you have to buy and sell 50 lakh shares in a day in Reliance, this is a big myth, people who say that liquidity is being created, liquidity is being created, in my opinion this is a myth and you are creating liquidity at what cost, that is, that has to be understood brother.
If you are killing four people and becoming a martyr yourself, in the sense of convincing yourself, then what is the value of that, brother? Let's take a short break on this matter. Coming after the break. Let's continue talking. Sing Down With Mr Vijay Keria Not Investor In His Home On The Occasion Of Course Diwali.
Mr. Keria Great to have you with us once again. I want to ask you a question. How is the market looking here ? We had a slight correction of 5, 6, 7%, small caps etc. fell a little more but now the market has recovered, what is the view from here, I think when we are talking about the market then we are talking about a lot of things you know and the entire ocean we are talking about and as far as you are concerned whether this index would have fallen by 5% or 7%, of which most of the part I think it might have recovered also in the last few weeks, something but small caps, many small caps are down by 30%, 20 to 40%, small caps and mid caps are down, I think it is a good sign, so far market is concern because there was a froth okay in small caps and mid caps and all because of this retail investors they don't understand, they just put they want to put their money and buy anything which they had been recommended, they said I took knowledge from my uncle's driver, neither studied nor did I go to college, listened to people, chose penny stocks, lost so much money, enjoyed it, so this is my song too.
So this is what ah was happening in this market. So I think this euphoria is settling down but I don't think that it is settled down completely. This is my personal view. Actually Vijay Bhai, I say small cap index jokingly that small cap index actually has been the strongest index in the world, but I say it half jokingly because it is half true also.
It is 1% away from its all-time high. Meaning it fell by 7%, the most it has ever fallen, and has come back to its highs in the quickest way. So, I mean, ah, stocks are still going to be down there. But the index is back at its high. So, we will have to look at this a little bit that when the index fell, which shares came back up and when the index came back up, which shares came back up.
Same shares have come up or other shares have come up. It is like the waves of the ocean, as soon as one wave goes, another one comes. Then the second wave reaches there. So this is also the case in small caps as to which one recovered. For example, if you talk about defence, if you remember that we had done an interview a month or two ago, our people had talked about our defence shares on the same basis, so our view was that there is a throw in it, many shares are down by 20-25%.
Not all shares are down. But many stocks went down by 20%-25%. It's not like he's back to his all-time high. So this will continue here. If you look at it this minutely then I don't think you are going to get any answer. But this is your view on this thing that froth is coming out in small caps now.
The view is that it means that whatever access is there now has been done. We are not done. It just happened. Only one such wave happened right now. I think this market will consolidate a bit [sound of clearing throat]. And I would be happy if I am wrong because I am holding my shares. But I think this market index wise I think this market will consolidate.
We and when the index will consolidate all the small caps and mid caps some now market ah price merit pay is going to happen. Many small caps, mid caps will fall, many will recover. Now this is the time to earn money, brother, within 6-8 months you can take any small cap. Now you can take anything in the name of defence.
Ok? Just like when Chandrayaan went there, a company gave an advertisement saying that I even sold tea there. So okay, right now everyone washes their hands in the Ganga in its name, when the Ganga flows, then I feel that that time is coming to an end, the time of making easy money, I feel that is coming to an end or the market will become range bound and the market will stabilize a bit here and on merit the market will move further, if we talk about the index Nifty or Sussex, I mean a broad, what do you think will be the range again, I think it will be somewhere 5% down and 5% up, it is not going to show a new high in a hurry, even if it goes to a new high, I don't think it is going to sustain because there are so many uncertainties we are going to face in these times to come, for example, there is an election, then from January again the general election will start, which is a big event and it depends, again sentiment is a mostly will depend on the outcome of this state election.
So all two state elections and general elections are polls apart or different but may be market will take a clue as to what will happen and what will not happen. So there are some uncertainties in this market. So personally, I will see that you consider politics a risk. You mean that in the near future, the market will stagnate a little bit, but you do n't consider it a big risk.
You do n't think it is a risk that suppose, if such a scenario develops under the current government that this government is not going to come, then the market will fall, then the market will fall in a big way, not because of that. We want BJP and we want Congress and all the markets obviously want a stable government.
We have got used to this government. Whoever ran the market for 5-4 years, it seems that the same person is back, our market is adjusting to all these political things. You know, in a very unique way, when IK Gujral also became the Prime Minister, even then the market had gone up, for whom there was no contender, like Devi Gada Saheb also became the Prime Minister, so this market has its own unique trend, this is the trend of the Indian economy.
It is going on but once that present thing gets disturbed then the market gets shaken a little bit. It becomes uncertain. From here you are holding your shares. Ah, have you taken any new one, let me ask you this first. When we last talked, no, no, I did not take anything new. Om Infra Om became old.
It's been two-three months. There was no new one after that. So what sectors do you still think about infra? Yes yes I like infra. I think this 5-seven year run up is still left in it. Because the story is just beginning inside Infra. Private capex is not even starting right now. You understand this and once an order comes to them, they need four to five years to execute those orders, so now they are getting orders, so right now it seems that this story may continue for 5 years, 7 years, 10 years and I have a contrarian call, I like airline shares.
All two people have never made money in airlines companies and all. But I feel that the timing of airlines in India and this is not a recommendation that I have taken. Then I told you a little bit about Indigo earlier also, yes I had taken that but it did not perform well, I don't know whether it will perform in future or not, but I feel that the airlines in India right now, this is a beginning, a new era in airlines, I think it is a beginning and your big bat is Atul Auto, yes that is there in it, all that electrification of yours, yes in terms of electric or Vijay Bhai Atul is your big winner, now let us do each and every work.
Let's take some stocks in your portfolio and you sing and tell us your feelings about these stocks. let start. One slight underperformer is Repro India. The performance has been a bit disappointing compared to your other stocks. What comes to mind ? Two lines. Two lines. So of course Repro India has been an under performer, it has not worked any further but it should work further.
I'm born. So it goes like this [sound of clearing throat] I have been searching for you day and night from here to there, oh wow, I am still searching for you, when will he come, when will he grow up, but I hope it will work, okay now let's go from repro to the other end, Vi Sera, yes, now you tell me with your own mouth, what do you mean, how many returns, how many percentages, how many 1000% returns are there in this?
That lucky league sera has given me 16,000 times return. 16,000 16,000 times 16,000 times because that was my base price, understand this split of ₹30 after the bonus and in that I got a dividend of about ₹150 i.e. ₹5200 on top of that. So I have free shares. And after one to one bonus the price was ₹8,000.
₹16,000 so the price became ₹16,000. In this, a completely firecracker song should be made on this. Yes, tell me I have this habit [sound of clearing throat] Every evening your pallu flutters over my eyes, every night brings a procession of memories. I breathe [song voice] I smell your fragrance, it brings a sweet fragrant message.
Even the beat of my heart sings your song. Pal Pal Dil Ke Paas Tum Rahti is a very lovely song. I also have an all-time favorite. We play it a lot at our house too.
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