저자: HamishHodder—게스트없음,마이클버리투자서한해설 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리의 2000~2001년 투자서한을 분석해, 현재 시장이 2000년대 중후반과 유사하며 고평가 성장주의 추가 하락 가능성이 있다는 견해를 소개한다. 결론: 버리는 현 시장을 2000년대 중후반과 비슷하다고 보며, 대형 성장주 조정과 가치주 상대 우위를 기대하는 구도로 해석된다. 배경: 2000년 인터넷 버블 붕괴 후 투기적 종목이 먼저 무너졌고, 이후 1년 뒤 전체 시장이 하락했으며 2003년에야 바닥을 찍었다. 현재도 2021년 말부터 투기적·적자 종목이 80% 이상 하락했고 이후 전체 시장이 밀리는 유사한 흐름이라고 설명한다. 버리 견해: 2001년 초 고품질 주식도 여전히 높은 밸류에이션이었고 기대치 하향 조정이 올 수 있다고 했으며, 실제로 이후 S&P500은 2년간 약 25% 추가 하락했다고 언급한다. 현재 S&P500 대형주도 장밋빛 기대를 반영하고 있어 침체 시 기대치 조정이 나올 수 있다고 본다. 가치주: 그린블라트 연구를 인용해 미국 시장은 고평가 쪽 22분위, 가치주는 저평가 쪽 90분위에 있어 가치주 대비 시장 괴리가 크다고 설명한다. 버리는 잉여현금흐름 대비 할인된 우량 기업을 선호했다. 포트폴리오 운용: 2000~2001년 버리 펀드는 68.24% 수익을 낸 반면 S&P500은 18.45% 하락했다. 변동성과 위험을 구분하며, 15~25개 종목으로 집중 운용하고 종목 간 상관관계를 낮추는 방식을 썼다. 저유동성 소형 가치주에서 기회를 찾았고 보수적 성장 가정과 안전마진을 강조했다. 매도: 고점 타이밍보다 저평가 종목을 꾸준히 사서 시장이 보상하게 하는 접근이 핵심이며, 현금이 있으면 가장 좋은 기회에 우선 배분한다고 설명한다. 리스크: 영상은 과거 사례 해석이며 버리의 현재 구체 종목 매수·매도 지시는 명시되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
today's video is sponsored by the daily upside use the link in the description below to learn more Michael Brewery hasn't said a lot recently about how he's actually investing in 2023 I mean he's tweeted here and there about cash flow and debt BuyBacks but what if I told you I found a much more detailed view of his strategy this year well technically I didn't find it investing with Tom center to me but the point is I got my hands on bory's investor letters from 2000 and 2001 and before you ask what the hell does that have to do with his strategy today well Michael burry recently has been talking a lot about how the current market looks very similar to the mid to late 2000s so we can actually dive into these letters to get a really clear perspective of what Buri thinks is going to happen in the markets and how he's navigating them most people know Michael burry as the protagonist in Paramount Pictures The Big Short which is a movie about the true events that led to the global financial crisis in 2008.
Michael breed the main character played by Christian Bale is a fund manager who discovers some severe instabilities in the U.S housing market before it collapsed and almost destroyed the entire Financial system the movie is called the big short because Michael Brewery allocated a huge amount of his investment funds Capital to betting against mortgage-backed Securities that ultimately crumbled from widespread defaults but before all of this even happened Michael burry was already a very successful value investor and for years he's been laying out his investment strategy in quarterly letters to clients of his fund Scion capital and there's actually a lot that the average investor can learn from how Michael burry was investing in 2000 and 2001.
during those years his fund made a return of 68.24 while the S P 500 actually declined a total of 18.45 so Brewery strategy during this time not only allowed him to avoid the prolonged decline that the broader Market faced but also to actually perform extremely well during this difficult period and more interestingly bury actually thinks today's market looks very similar to what it did back then so before I break down Michael brewery's investment strategy I want to talk about why Michael burry thinks that today's market looks similar to the early 2000s much like what we saw play out in late 2021 in the year 2000 highly speculative and unprofit company saw significant declines in their stock prices which we now know as the internet bubble but not a lot of people talk about what happened next while speculative internet stocks collapsed severely as should be expected it wasn't until late 2000 almost a year later where the rest of the market began to fall and then in 2001 A recession began and the broader Market actually didn't reach a bottom until 2003 and Brewery sees a similar story playing out today in late 2021 speculative and unprofitable stocks started to crumble with many of them now down 80 percent or more and a few months later the rest of the market began to fall in a tweet from a few months ago Brie said that he thinks today's market looks like the mid to late 2000s period which essentially means he believes that the broader Market has further to fall and this isn't Brew just looking back in hindsight because he actually had the same contention before this had happened the previous time in 2001.
he wrote that his preference is to buy long-term franchises at a substantial discount to Growing intrinsic value or in other words to buy high quality businesses but that as of early 2000 1 high quality stocks still had high valuations based on overly Rosy future expectations and that they would be prone to further revisions as expectations were reigned in and he was exactly right from that point forward the S P 500 fell another 25 percent over the following two years today the biggest names in the S P 500 still have prices that arguably reflect very Rosy future expectations and if there was to be a recession say at the end of this year throughout this year similar to the recession that came after the tech bubble in 2001 then it wouldn't be surprising to see large companies have their expectations reigned in similar to the large cap businesses in 2001 and that maybe they have more to fall so how did Brewery make almost 70 percent over two years while the rest of the market was declining well he certainly didn't do it by buying expensive large cap companies that still had a waste of all instead he was looking for undervalued often very small and illiquid Securities these are groups of stocks that fall under the traditional definition of value and it looks like this group of stocks are in a similarly good position today as well unlike large caps which prior to 2022 have just been going up at massive rates traditional value stocks haven't seen that same run-up although in the last year in 2020 as 2022 as the market has collapsed those value stocks have also experienced the downside and the result of that is there is now a very large spread between the valuation of value or cheap stocks and the rest of the market I spoke about Joel greenblatt's research on this in a recent video his research showed that the US market is still around the 22nd percentile towards expensive while value stocks are near the 90th percentile towards cheap and that research supports Michael brewery's contention that's similar to the early 2000s we may be about to see value stocks do far better than the broader Market again in a tweet from a few months ago Brewery said free cash flow totally on sale better businesses still had a way to full value was about to take off for years despite fight more crash on the way just before I break down Michael Bree's investment strategy for 2023 I want to talk about the sponsor of today's video The Daily upside there is a lot of noise in the financial media landscape and it's often really difficult to sort through the enormous amount of disingenuous headlines and fear-inducing tactics to find real reliable sources of information but there is a better way and today I want to share a source that has quickly become a morning ritual of mine reading the daily upside the daily upside is a completely free curated morning Financial brief followed by more detailed stories that are shaping the business world it's informative and witty and goes far behind the headlines to provide real substance of some of the most important news of the day this coverage of corporate news the economy policy changes and investing news all coming from a team of financial professionals personally I love to keep up to date with business news and just a couple of days ago the daily upside had a really interesting article about some of the price changes being pushed through by Amazon whether you're a financial professional or someone who just wants to get a jump start on what news is moving the markets the daily upside is a perfect solution it is completely free if you want to sign up and every morning they send you one information filled email brief and on someone who needs to stay on top of Economic and Business News to create videos like this I cannot recommend it enough join Over 850 000 people who trust the daily upside and sign up via the link in the description below so given that Bree sees today's market very similarly to the early 2000s it seems appropriate to learn how Brewery was investing in the early 2000s and while I've mostly avoided learning about Michael breweries investment strategy which more recently has come to include a lot of macroeconomic predictions his strategy in the early 2000s is very much classic value investing that is very likely based on the teachings of Benjamin Graham and since we have access to his quarterly fund letters we can see exactly how he was investing back then the biggest Common Thread throughout the eight or so letters that he wrote between 2000 and 2002 is the difference between volatility and risk Murray operates very differently to the vast sea of average performing institutional investors and one of the main reasons he's able to outperform them is because unlike them he doesn't consider volatility a risk in invest in one of his letters he writes by and large the wealthiest of the wealthy and their representatives have accepted that most managers are average and the better ones are able to achieve average results while exhibiting below average volatility by this logic however a dollar selling for 50 cents one day 60 cents the next day and 40 cents the next day somehow becomes worth less than a dollar for selling 50 cents on all three days of course to any rational human this is absolutely ridiculous the value of a business doesn't change based on the changes in what investors are willing to pay for it and bury demonstrated this idea in Q4 of 2021 when the September 11 terrorist attacks drove some stocks to absurdly low prices one of his positions fell to a price that was three quarters of the free cash flow It produced in the last 12 months Brewery bought more of this stock during this time and in less than a month it had three x from the value that it had fallen to during September and the next month in December it was acquired for seven times its September price and this is a fantastic demonstration of what most fund managers get wrong this stock in bori's portfolio absolutely increase the volatility of his portfolio but it didn't increase the risk whereas most fund managers would have ignored this investment simply because of the volatility thinking that it the volatility made it a bad investment even though objectively you could have looked at the price relative to the cash flows in the business behind it and it made absolutely no sense to not invest in that company Rory also gives a number of insights into how he structured his portfolio back in the 2000s he ran a relatively concentrated portfolio of 15 to 25 stocks or less noting in one letter that diversification doesn't require more than 15 or more stocks if done correctly Rory says that he structures his portfolio to protect against a wide variety of unforeseen circumstances and in his mind the best way to do this is to minimize correlation between stocks in the portfolio such as investing in different Industries Rory's actual investment process at its core is relatively simple he's trying to find one dollar with enough volatility that it will sell for 40 cents he states that most of the time one dollar sells for a dollar ten or more in the market especially if it consists instantly does so find managers that are trying to avoid volatility often reward stocks that have less volatility by paying more than their worth at the same time volatile stocks often go on sale because fund managers are simply avoiding them because they're volatile in the early 2000s Brewery was looking for undervalued smaller illiquid stocks which are companies whose stocks are traded so infrequently that a lot of the time they are mispriced by the market these types of businesses that he was looking at in the early 2000s are often not the best quality businesses but our average orb slightly above average businesses but that's not really the point here the the point is that you can find Value in really any type of business whether it's small medium large cap whether it's a liquid stock that's traded frequently or it's E-liquid a point that Brewery makes a lot throughout these letters is that you should just look for where value can be found wherever that is for example after this period after the broader Market had continued to fall through to 2003 high quality businesses with good manage teams and deep competitive advantages actually became a lot more attractive than they were just a few years ago and maybe even more importantly on an individual basis there are great investment opportunities regardless of where most of the great investment opportunities are so even though value may be very cheap relative to other parts of the market sure that's value is where you're going to find our Traditional Values where you're going to find most of the great opportunities but that doesn't mean that there are zero opportunities in other areas of the market so on an individual basis which is how you should be assessing Investments you can find them really anywhere but regardless of whether you're looking at high cash flow yield companies with limited growth prospects or companies with durable modes and the ability to reinvest Capital at a high rate Rory says it's critical to use conservative projections when looking into the future biggest mistake you can make in valuation is expecting that the great performance of a business in the recent past is going to continue for a very long time into the future if a component of the valuation is injecting growth into the future you really need to understand the space that that business is growing into and the likelihood that those additional cash flows actually come true and adding a margin of safety is a great way to add additional protection lastly Bree gives some advice on when to sell your Investments he notes that excess returns he's likely to earn will come from buying stocks absurdly cheap rather than selling them at daily prices or in other words he's never been good at timing the market buying the bottom and selling the top but rather recognizing that if he's buying undervalued business consistently then the market over time will reward him his sole focus is to find the best places to allocate Capital if he has cash in the portfolio which he often keeps a little bit of of around for opportunities then he will allocate that first but then ultimately it's just a matter of looking at the available opportunities in front of him and putting money in the best opportunities if you want me to cover more of Boris letters in future videos then make sure you let me know by leaving a comment down below and of course hit subscribe if you haven't already and you're enjoying the content here but with that said hope you guys have a great day see you in the next one
Comments 0