저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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알리바바 3년 규제 시정 절차가 완료되어 주가가 반등했다는 뉴스를 다룬다. 규제 완화 기대와 함께 2분기 1~8월 자사주 매입이 크게 늘어 분기 약 28억 달러 수준이 집행된 것으로 추정한다. 주봉 100주 이동평균선 돌파를 강세 신호로 보고, 발언자들은 추가 매수 의향을 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two super guys TR Soxs I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and holy crap we finally actually had a decent we Alibaba shareholders okay we had a couple of new stories come out an interesting calculation that I'm going to show you at the end about some Alibaba Sher purchases right so um if you want to look at the 5day performance up 1.8% that's really respectable for a Chinese Equity okay you know we're not talking about Nvidia here um we're talking about a Chinese Equity so 1.8% green for a week is pretty phenomenal they did have this nice pop on Friday and then kind you know tread it off a little bit during the day we're going to talk about the news behind that nice Pop um don't forget though we're actually positive for the year to date dude you know spy by like half but yeah positive year to date it's crazy wait till you see how much it's underperformed over a three-year period oh yeah all right so this is the news uh headline from that kind of Pop we saw on Friday U but basically it was Alibaba shar's rise after it completes three-year regulatory overhaul three years Man Three three years it has been a long Hall to say the least right so Alibaba has completed a threeyear reg regulatory reer rectification process all right uh following an antitrust fine to received from charges of nonballistic practices back in 2021 China's Market regulator said on Friday right shares pop 3% we already kind of talked about that on Friday China's State administration of for Market regulation uh said that over the past few years has been supervising alibaba's process to become compliant with antitrust regulations the rectification work has achieved good results uh the SR said according to google translated statement this is all from a CNBC article the one that I just gave you the headline from before Fair all right so you remember this this 18 billion yuan fine 2.6 billion US Dollars that's kind of how it kicked off this war against Chinese Tech and e-commerce companies and it's been three years now since that started uh yeah yeah it's left my port a little bloody okay I'll say that I agree right uh so the the regulator's focus was on a practice the forces Merchants to choose one of two e-commerce platforms remember this where they were like you can't be listed as a merchant on our platform and someone else's yeah uh they were forcing them to choose and of course they chose the biggest most successful one which I agree not cool optic yeah yeah uh so they stopped that process um but they were all under this like threeyear regulatory you know kind of uh framework where they were being watched heavily by the market regulator uh to make sure they didn't do anything else questionable and we saw like not only what happened to the stock but the business fundamentals over that time period uh definitely degraded from where they were in 2021 but you also have the macroeconomic Chinese kind of downturn during this time period as well so it's hard to parse out how much of this is Alibaba versus how much is Regulators versus how much of it is China in general and we had a global pandemic that was going on too so well there's also like change in leadership too there's I mean there there's a lot of different things happened and the Chinese government definitely put in some like people just to be like watch this yeah which I mean I think we all disagree with but I can't control that so fair enough yeah so uh SMR said it will Now guide Alibaba to continue to improve its compliance and efficiency and to accelerate Innovation accelerate Innovation I thought that was an interesting little sprinkle there in the end you know there's definitely been a lot of talk about uh China's economic downturn and how uh the CCP is kind of softening their stance and trying to encourage growth amongst their their large Ecommerce and tech companies and I think this is like a little sprinkle of that if you will you know Point towards good things ahead from regulatory environment I would agree the conclusion of regulatory overhaul will help lot worst runin with Beijing behind it uh jeffre Danel has said uh in a note Friday that um the conclusion of the regulatory process was a positive for the company which highlight this is a new start and ensures compliance and operations um so but The Regulators ongoing uh announcement could also signal that uh the ongoing softing stance from Chinese Regulators toward private technology firms this is kind of what I was just talking about intense crack down of again in 2022 this time Beijing enacted several regulations and moves that Adit uh aim to restrict the power of domestic technology firms and areas ranging from antitrust gaming all right this is just recapping what we basically just said you know they are now a different possibly you know releasing or easing off regulations and you know being a more stimulatory environment now that they've seen their whole economy have a downturn I will say I know that people their biggest problem with this company is communism like like with that's fair by the way because it's completely unpredictable um the this is going to be an extremely compliant and efficient company I mean that's like a super communistic statement from a government I mean that's that's that's right out of 1984 um but yeah just throw that out there yeah they not taken the range off entirely but they are easing off um so this is the final note from that that CNBC article but that Tech Titan showed early signs of recovery in the June quarter as cloud computing Revenue accelerated and transactions via HTE eCommerce platform looked healthy um this is what we were saying the business fundamentals definitely look like they were improving uh and the most recent quarterly results and now we're going to get to see a little bit of what sort of you know management has has done as far as uh allocating Capital so this is shares outstanding you know they've been really you know steadily decreasing the shares outstanding over the last two years but they've accelerated significantly over the last two quarters two quarters remember this this from their most recent earnings statement here where we see the US dollars per uh quarter spent in share BuyBacks 5.8 billion most raing quarter 4.8 and previously to the new management they're doing 2.9 1.7 3.1 so you know they really have stepped up their share buyback purchase uh Pace Additionally the thing I want to note from here is look at this number 2.37 eight billion adss as of June 30th and 445 million ordinary shares that were bought back during that quarter now because alib Baba had its uh general meeting and you know the voting meeting I didn't vote um like completely ignored those emails from Charles Schwab uh get too many of them um but the results were talled as of August 22nd right and when they filed this regulatory filing we got a little insight into what their share outstanding count was as of this date so that's just a few days ago if we go back and look through the numbers here U basically we're looking at a net reduction of about 35 million adss during the time period from June 30th to August 28th um or about 280 million ordinary shares for a net buyback so far this quarter of $2.8 billion us so that's from that's from June 30th uh to August 22nd I know I'm F so that would that's half that's half of the quarter okay so all right that's not bad so if that continues then we might I mean that's a pretty solid number again yep and I use approximately $80 per share as as my number to calculate this um these are all kind of rough estimates but that's that's what we're looking at so far in terms of share BuyBacks of the the most recent you know few weeks that's huge that means that they're keeping up the the pressure cuzz 2.8 during the first half I mean if they match that that's I mean that's another 5.6 that's a lot that's crazy five billion share buyback quarter is what we're looking at which is awesome so this is the Boma chart now the the dashed Gray Line here that is the 100 moving average but granted this is the weekly chart so this is this is not the daily chart we have only gone past it briefly since this threeyear downturn I zoomed in because we weren't been close to it the entire time so um but we've been past it just in may we are now at it again so we're going to see what happens here it looks like we are breaking into a bullish move it's impossible to know Chinese companies charting is almost just shy of pointless can you go the next one yeah um now the question is Vinnie do you buy more because I I I get it I'm actually pretty heavy in this if this can hit back down to the this is the daily chart the moving average 78 is I would like to buy more if it's possible if I can yeah just a little bit more not a lot more but I mean bur's going all in and it it you know we've endured three years of bad news I don't know what your cost average is mine's like 101 or something yeah probably not far off from there uh I'd have to look at it I haven't been selling covered calls against it in the last several months I I've stopped doing that just because you know it it looked like we were turn finally put it towards the trend for me is my thought yeah no I would agree so let us know what you think guys the share buyback thing is insane and no more overbearing well they're still there they're still they're definitely still in the company but the regulation process is over so that's fantastic yeah all right guys catch you in the next one later
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