저자: Kevin · 외국인
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AI 소프트웨어 기업(세일즈포스, UiPath 등)의 실적 부진과 가격 경쟁 심화를 근거로 AI 버블 붕괴 가능성을 경고. 소프트웨어 가격 디플레이션이 시작되면 이후 반도체(엔비디아) 주문 둔화와 EPS 역성장으로 이어져 증시 급락(블랙먼데이 유사)이 올 수 있다고 주장. 다만 JP모건 자료상 연초 상승장이 연말 상승으로 이어진 사례가 많다고 언급하며 균형을 시도.
다듬은 글
oh boy I think I may have found the market crash please don't look at uip path or Salesforce okay we need to look it's it's bad and we need to explain what's going on and what this could mean for the broader Market especially if you're looking at trading tomorrow because let's just say while C3 AI might be up 8.7% on the day you're still dragging like an anchor around the bottom that just hit a tiny little Pebble in terms of your stock actually going up yikes UI path on the other hand is like an anchor that just fell into the Mariana Trench down 29% with Salesforce also down 15% though Salesforce at least had a little bit more of a recovery in 2023 so what the hell happened what is going on and how the heck do we trade this because well frankly I like trading as you know this is my account I'll do a quick shout out on this so we can move on we got a coupon code expiring Friday for the course on building your wealth uh our pnl for today well over the last 5 days is about 149,000 the account's up to 2114 and if we go to the trades for just today we're at about 67k on trades today so if you want those we got a coupon code expiring Friday and even though I try to send alerts and uh hope to make money it can't guarantee that I can keep this going uh or you'll be able to make it money now with that said what just happened with Salesforce yes this is a big deal Salesforce is down about 16% on the same day that Nvidia hit its all-time highs and Dell also hit its all-time Highs at what point during the trading day I had Dell call options that ended up more than 2 and a half Xing running into the close like Dell is exploding which is really exciting if you're playing calls or speculating on the stock but what I'm really worried about is exactly what I just said that it's speculation remember only about 2% of Dell's Revenue actually comes from artificial intelligence yet because they got a shout out from Nvidia their stock basically doubled that's insane and going into this we know that artificial intelligence software companies are probably one of the riskiest bets in this market except here you're going to learn about exactly what's going on now before the earnings that we got to today we already knew that there were some problems brewing in AI stable diffusion for example the company that makes those you know text to image Generations that Coca-Cola featured in some of their advertisements is at least according to the information running out of money and potentially unable to cover its debts despite having Skyhigh valuations uh in the billions of dollars range right at the beginning of the AI Euphoria we saw last year well what's changing what's going on at these companies well for Salesforce and uip path both of them missed on their forecasts but it was their commentary that actually led me to be a little bit more concerned that we could actually be starting to see the turn in the artificial intelligence Revolution now don't get me wrong I'm exposed to stocks like Nvidia and I don't want to see Nvidia tank in fact when Nvidia goes up it's a pretty Dam easy trade to play especially when you trade some of the adjacents like super micro computer or Dell or some of the others the problem though is once we start getting an AI software collapse Nvidia will eventually follow this is sort of my outline and then I'll tell you some of the things that I saw today well and heard in the earnings call I listen to every word of the Salesforce earnings call for example and I've been studying what's been going on with the earnings of these other companies here's how the AI sector collapses and tanks the entire well stock market which wouldn't be great first in my opinion as like phase one is software revenues don't actually materialize or grow the way people hope in other words people think software revenues are going to explode because of artificial intelligence but what actually happens is you create it's like so much easier to create software that there's a lot more competition what you actually have to do is create a pricing War as everybody implements their chat bot and we're not really seeing like a new wave of AI right we're like getting these incremental improvements on AI so everybody gets a new chatbot cool now everybody has one so competition goes up and potentially you have even more chatbots so what you've really done is lowered software pricing rather than increased software pricing yikes that's kind of exactly the opposite of what you would have expected but that's kind of how the market works the market usually does the opposite of what you think is going to happen because what you think is going to happen is already priced in that's one of the lessons of the stock market but anyway once you get a bunch of competitors in the software space software basically becomes a commodity software stocks then start collapsing first like we just saw with UI path down 29.6% Salesforce down 15% that's like $40 billion that Salesforce just poof went to that's like elon's stock comp plan just poof evaporated Into Thin Air now Chip designers like Nvidia might end up holding up at first since Nvidia doesn't really care where the chips go whether it's you know one software provider like a Microsoft or a 100 different providers like Microsoft and 99 other startups it really doesn't matter as long as the total addressable Market of software gets addressed by however many companies it is NVIDIA still benefits as a provider of the tool that can provide that compute great so Nvidia holds up but eventually you get a lot more software competition that then continues to press down pricing and without a new leap in AI technology yes we can compute this the same stuff faster but without a leap in like artificial general intelligence or something Beyond just chat Bots what usually will happen is you'll start to see chip orders slow at first slowly and then suddenly starts slow then it happens suddenly it's kind of like why is Amazon going you know what we're going to wait on getting the uh uh any more h100 chips we're just going to wait for Blackwell that's an early warning that some of these software companies aren't actually seeing as much of an explosion in demand as would have maybe otherwise been expected in fact when Nvidia said that it could have been a massive red flag for what happened with Salesforce and uipath which at least Salesforce has their products on Amazon servers something to keep in mind now at least some of their products after chip orders slow chips supply shortages start to evaporate when shortages evaporate right pricing stabilizes for new Chips but not only does pricing stabilize for new Chips old chip pricing plummets who remembers this during covid you were like paying uh people were literally flipping graphic cards from their computers for a premium during covid because everybody wanted to mine uh you know basically ethereum frankly or or uh various different cryptocurrencies though a lot of them were using ASX a lot of them were also using gpus and so people were literally flipping chips from their computers and uninstalling graphic cards just to make a buck uh knowing that eventually chip prices would stabilize and come down again and then old chip prices would collapse well that's exactly what happened then the plummet of pricing leads new potential chip customers to say maybe we're not going to stock up as much on chips because we don't want our balance sheet to get destroyed then all of a sudden margins go back to normal at companies like Nvidia and EPS growth potentially ends up turning negative and then the stocks tank that all takes a while to come through and remember when I say that uh there's this balance sheet fear what I'm really saying is you've got this potential uh for hey if we buy 35,000 h100s at a value of I mean let's just do it really quick let's just say $35 just to keep the math simple sorry yeah $ 35,000 at $35 to keep the math simple that would be $1.2 million and if let's say all of a sudden that the price of each chip collapses to $7,000 for an h100 well all of a sudden you basically lost uh somewhere around what is that 7 divided by 35 you lost about 80% of the value of that asset that was sitting on your balance sheet that's not good now all of a sudden you see this balance sheet expense and then all of a sudden you're having to create markdowns on your balance sheet that makes companies look bad so that also in addition to negative EPS growth leads companies to fall so this is a real real risk but now what did we actually hear from Salesforce okay so now you have an overview right so you have an overview of what happened in the stocks first then how does the whole AI World collapse and then what's actually happening at Salesforce okay ready for this operating income expectations for q1 came in 70 basis points lower than expected big deal not a big deal at all it's like literally who cares operating margin as expected fine Q two revenue forecast came in 1.3% lower than expected huh okay that's interesting I mean that's not that big of a Miss why is the stock down 15% okay subscription revenue forecast Revis down slightly to less than 10% growth for the company really why would the company be growing less with all of these AI tools that's really weird we should be growing faster not slower why are we growing slower with AI I thought we were going to grow faster with AI ah and that is the problem that is exactly the problem so what did Salesforce tell us well first they bagged on chat bots in fact multiple times they bagged on chat Bots they bagged on chat Bots and said hey you know Commodities uh like chat Bots or well chat Bots are going to become Commodities everybody's going to have one what makes us different is that our chat Bots understand your company's data and I'm like okay all right wait so your sales pitches chat Bots are a commodity but your commodity is better got it Salesforce okay interesting then they gave some example they said they're seeing good demand their customers are excited talked about Air India they talked about crowd strike okay a lot of exciting references talked about how they're saving 20,000 hours every month in programming work thanks to artificial intelligence and we we now provide personalized summaries thanks to AI in slack bro summaries ston should be up right then we get to the real color which is there's continued pressure in Professional Services customers are delaying or slowing their projects but we're seeing a strong demand for data but only after we make pricing and packaging changes ah interesting so in other words there's continued pressure in Professional Services and customers aren't really buying your stuff so you're reducing the price and when you reduce price then people when you reduce prices then people are interested it again interesting okay well how has Revenue growth been the last two years Revenue has been consistent Revenue growth has been consistent the last two years but customers are really looking for shorter duration projects but we are benefiting from price change over the last year ah yes okay got it more cutting customers don't want to do the big AI projects cuz they're like we already got out chatbot we got it for free whatever uh then an analyst literally and and I was like basically screaming this is like competition right this is a sign that there's so much software competition that prices are coming down which is the beginning of the AI collaps and an analyst replies and says hey well what about crowding in the field and and Mark Benny off and the team they're like w it just takes companies a lot of time to adjust and integrate remember customers can leverage data and uh in the meantime they literally did what I'm about to say okay and I'm like I literally wrote on EAC I'm like this is so cheesy I literally wrote this down but anyway they say and I'm paraphrasing a little bit you could listen to the earnings call but I'll just give you the paraphrase on it they're like did you take advantage of Kevin's coupon code expiring this Friday 11:59 p.m.
prices are going up they're going straight up this year not going to get in for a cheaper price okay sorry I had to do that no they they literally said in the meantime uh so they were talking about mergers and Acquisitions and they're like ah we're going to be cautious you know we don't want to cannibalize our existing customers and I'm like okay that's interesting so you're not actually enthusiastic about sort of adding features because you're worried about losing revenue from some of your customers if you add too many products interesting and then right after they say that Mark Ben is like look at our amazing cash flow maybe only a few other companies have ever delivered cash flow like this the numbers are pretty epic I wrote down this is turning cheesy I'm like yes it is true the Salesforce cash flow numbers are very very good I will give them that the cash flow is delicious $6.2 billion in three months they've got a PEG ratio of 2.09 like the valuation isn't kooky assuming that they can grow earnings per share 11% over the next few years but I'm not concerned about that I'm concerned about EPS growth actually turning negative because they need a cut cut cut cut cut cut cut because they can't keep selling this AI crap cuz people are tired of the AI crap it's like I get it I can generate an image now and I have a chat poot so how do we keep delivering the numbers then says Mark Benny off ah yes what we're going to do is we're going to have a quote deeper inspection of the pipeline that's not like a colonoscopy that's actually just a fancy way of saying we're going to put more pressure on our sales staff to make sure they just keep calling people over and over and over again to make sure they close deals then they literally went into ripping on open AI for ripping off newspapers and now striking deals with them they were begging on chat GPT probably because Einstein sucks and they have to oh I said it I'm sorry anyway um I think this is a huge red flag that AI is basically creating substantial software deflation now you look at C3 Ai and you're like oh but Kevin they're up 8% that's true but like 21% of their revenue comes from the federal government that's cool like so does paler that's great but there are now so many choices that I actually think all of these software companies and their Moes are actually getting diluted and so sure congratulations c3i your Revenue went up 19% your gross profit went up 88.5% what does that tell me you had to reduce prices or your costs went up your sales expenses went up 22% Revenue went up 19% that means it took you more to actually get that money at a lower margin and your net losses widened yeah you've got a strong balance sheet from when you uh ipoed but still it's not great then literally this morning on the course member live stream somebody asked me hey Kevin what do you think about or maybe it was in the public live stream I can't remember which one it was remember if you're a course member you get all the course member live stream analyses as well but somebody asked I think it was a course member hey can we analyze UI path and I'm like all right so here's the thing with uip path they create automation tools before artificial intelligence that's great that's a wonderful thing like people want automation tools that's great and they're willing to pay for that my concern though this morning morning when I was analyzing uipath was does AI help or hurt them because see AI could maybe help them make more automation tools but if everybody else can just as easily now make those automation tools what do you need uip path for oopsy doopsy apparently the answer is yeah uipath gets hurt so who might be the biggest winner here well maybe companies like Microsoft Amazon Nvidia for a time being but what happens when this process really rolls over in other words and again software pricing collapses we have not seen that in like the last decade and a half I mean quite frankly since the.com bubble software margins have really actually held up pretty strong that's why software companies sell for a 2.6 is PEG ratio software margins are higher profitability is higher stock based compensation is higher everybody wants to be in software but if everybody wants to be in software and uh now everybody's leveraging artificial intelligence to make more software faster with less coding work than the moat at companies I hate to say it because I'm invested in company like paler but the Moe at companies like paler or UI path or sales force or whatever starts to go down that's not not great so when that moat goes down you get EPS negative growth in other words rapid growth after covid makes sense 2020 yay rapid growth 2021 yay rapid growth 2022 o we're going to lay off a little bit 2023 AI yay rapid growth 2024 oh growth is flattening so all of a sudden you you kind of have this like Skyrocket a little bit of a slowing in 22 Skyrocket due to Ai and then all of a sudden it's like uh uhoh what EPS growth is flat wait EPS growth is now a negative oh no it's now it's now really negative oh my God stock valuations go through the roof and then they collapse much like Black Monday now Black Monday is actually a really interesting reference because if you look at Black Monday Black Monday one of the reasons and people speculate over what really caused Black Monday but Black Monday was deemed to have basically occurred because people were all of a sudden highly concerned about stock valuations again uh and thinking that things were too overvalued now something else that I thought was really interesting and I got this from uh a team member I want you to see this this is crazy so this should be bullish so I want to sort of balance balance the negativity with uh bullishness just a little bit so I'm going to go throw this picture up on screen uh okay let's get that picture up uh okay here we go oh sorry that was the p&l for today sorry and I did trade with a little bit more than I usually trade with today so my percent return today was a little weaker because I traded with a a larger chunk but it still went pretty well make sure you get those Buy sell alerts if you're not part of it yet stocks and site look at this on screen here this is crazy this is a JP Morgan piece where they basically show that in the first 100 days if the S&P 500 was over 10% it basically always ended the year positive well it did the full year always ended the year positive and in every single instance the S&P ended over 14% Higher by the end of the year compared to the prior year in many cases here 20% 30% 45% with the exception of 1987 where the market was up 19% at the beginning of the year and only up 2% at the end of the year wow what happened in 1987 ah Black Monday happened you had a liquidity crisis and you had a fear that the stock market had just become overvalued so am I saying that we could have a black Mar a Monday style market crash well yeah at some point in the future that'll happen and I'll probably be trading it it'll be really entertaining could also be very scary depending on which way you're trading if you're buying puts he might be really happy but anyway uh yeah it's really interesting that the one time on their sheet that you don't actually get as high of an end of the year is a year that you're worried about valuations and this is coming at the same time that we're talking about uh-oh can Nvidia really keep up the market this much longer and realistically the order is can sof for revenues prop up the market for this long and then will those continue to translate to Nvidia earnings and when does that bubble pop o but
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