Should Charlie Munger Sell His Alibaba Position? Alibaba Stock Analysis (BABA Stock)

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BABA 급락 이후 매도 여부를 분석하는 영상으로, 발언자는 알리바바 저평가 논리를 강하게 펴며 현 수준이 과도하다고 봄. 찰리 멍거의 최근 13F 공시상 매도 없이 보유 중이라는 점을 들어 그의 신뢰가 유지된다고 주장. 시가총액 1670억 달러, 주가 63달러 수준이며, 현금 약 410억 달러(시총의 약 25%)를 근거로 저평가를 주장. 클라우드 시장이 2025년까지 약 3배 성장하고 알리바바 점유율 36%를 유지한다는 가정하에 클라우드 가치를 약 600억 달러로 추산. 현재 영업이익 수준 기준으로 시총 회수까지 약 8년이 걸린다고 설명하며 가치 과소평가를 강조. 알리페이·이커머스·클라우드 등 사업 독점력과 앤트파이낸셜 지분을 긍정 요인으로 제시. 징둥닷컴도 시총의 52%가 현금이라며 중국 주식 전반이 시진핑 3연임 이후 비합리적으로 저평가됐다고 주장. 반면 중국 주식 보유의 리스크(대만 전쟁 우려, 회계감사 문제 등)를 언급하며 시장이 BABA를 사실상 0원 수준으로 보는 것 아니냐는 질문도 던짐. 결론적으로 발언자는 BABA를 저평가로 보고 추가 매수 의향을 밝힘. 다만 구체적인 목표가는 제시되지 않음.

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01. but Charlie manga just sell his whole Baba position right now people are claiming that he's down 400 damn percent because he was using margin to purchase the stock but remember he bought in and he won 2021 then he sold out for attack sauce harvesting then he got back in so I'm assuming his price is around 200 220 maybe a little bit lower so he's still down huge on his position because he was using a margin to buy this position but still should he sell this stock because it's been crashing like crazy down 12 for the day it's at 63 dollars a share so let's do a quick stock analysis on this position what do you think about monger's buy because 13 at filing recently he didn't sell anything so he's staying solid on his position he still believes in the company Alibaba stock crash hard today it's insane what happened this was a huge drop 12 63 dollars the market cap at a 167 billion this is unheard of this is lower than its damn IPO price even though it's probably 5x 10x it's Revenue numbers it doesn't matter at this point Baba is trading near damn lows and this is all because I think Xi Jinping secured his historic third term as the leader of China a lot of his inner circle is just filled with loyalists right now people that just are right behind him and this is a story because it's never been done before for three terms it's always two terms so this is why I think the market is very down on Baba because they think Xi Jinping is a socialist and now he's gonna privatize all of these business which I think isn't true because if you actually read what he was talking about it's a lot of positive in there I'm gonna get through that probably in my next video so stay tuned but let's get back to Baba right now because it's at 167 billion dollars and remember one of the best investors Charlie Munger was buying this around 220 230 can you believe that we're saying that Kimberly Munger saw this company as undervalued at 222.30 and it's trading at 63 dollars that's insane do you think he's changed his mind since his huge drop I highly doubt it because the moat still stands and this is why I will be buying if I had more money to buy Alibaba because we still have Alibaba the retail business which is just huge at this point more than 1.1 billion active users we still have cloud computing we still have the logistics Services we still have at Financial one third of app Financial which remember it was supposed to be a 300 billion dollar market cap company when it was going to IPO and that got crushed down so maybe around 100 billion right now who knows really but still that's a huge win for Alibaba just having that ownership and app Financial guys with all of that it doesn't matter if you look at the balance sheet of Alibaba they have around 41 billion dollars in cash 25 percent of the market cap is just cat 25 are you serious right now that Alibaba can be trading this low it's unheard of at this point and you have to think about the cloud computing China's public Cloud Market to Triple by 2025.

02. they have a 36 on the cloud market and it's expecting to Triple to 90 billion it made 12 billion if you put like a five-time sales multiple on the cloud computing of Ali Cloud that's already like 60 billion dollars just from the cloud computing in 2025 if Baba remains 36 of the market with Huawei and tencent Cloud competing with it now just going to the income statement they generated 22 billion dollars and this is a bad year off the 35 billion so if we were to buy the whole company for 167 billion dollars it would take us around eight years just to get our money back can you imagine just buying this company with this type of remote in the market and in eight years you get all your money back who wouldn't do that no one the world who wouldn't buy a company that would get all your money back in eight years with the strongest with the biggest e-commerce platform with the biggest cloud platform alipay one of the two biggest payment platform that has that basically has a monopoly with 10 cent pay so do you just see the dominance in Alibaba and it's trading this low this is not even including their Investments like think of a lot of investments in different companies that's not even including that so you can just see how undervalued this company is if you want to use the sum of Parts if you want to use the cash flow if you want to use the cash that has on its balance sheet if you want to do the growth projection into the future for Alibaba it doesn't even matter jd.com 57 billion dollars it's selling for right now guys can you believe right now 52 30 billion in cash 52 percent of its market cap is just in cash just in cash that's not including JD retail that including uh JD property JD House and Logistics data all of that stuff it doesn't matter right now it's just it's just that cheap in the market so you can just see how China is just selling off like crazy everything in the Chinese market is irrational right now because of XI jinping's third term so guys do you believe that Baba is worth pretty much zero at this point if it's worth 63 dollars why not just go to zero like that's what the market is telling you it's really really worth majority of people think the risk of owning Chinese companies is just not worth it there's so much unknown going on in the Chinese market when it comes to China Taiwan everyone thinks there's going to be a war coming very very soon and people are saying Xi Jinping is gonna handle that or they're kind of hinting on that which I think is untrue I think USA is doing more to kind of start this war than China we have the auditing the auditing is still up in the air we don't know if it's going to be settled people are still talking about it so guys tell me what you think about Baba are you buying are you selling are you just holding what do you think about Baba guys