저자: BrianSozzi · 외국인
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이번 어닝 시즌에서 경영진들의 경고가 나오고 있으며, 높은 금리와 소비 둔화가 시장 불안의 핵심이라는 진행자의 진단. 금리 측면: 미국 국채 금리가 5% 근처이고, 자동차 할부 금리는 9% 수준, 30년 모기지 금리는 십수 년 만의 고점 수준이라며 소비자 부담이 커지고 있다고 설명. 기업 실적 측면: 테슬라 경영진이 고금리로 인해 차량 구매 수요가 줄 수 있다고 경고했고, 아메리칸익스프레스 CEO도 소비자 상황에 대해 약간의 우려를 표명. 빅테크 측면: 애플은 중국 둔화 우려, 구글은 비용 증가와 고금리로 가이던스 미달 가능성이 거론됨. 반면 마이크로소프트는 AI와 오피스 모멘텀, 액티비전 블리자드 인수 효과로 실적 상향 서프라이즈 가능성이 있다고 봄. 시장 전망: 시장이 리스크를 충분히 반영하지 않았다는 판단이며, 실시간으로 가격이 재조정되는 과정이라고 봄. 소형 AI 기업들은 자본 조달이 어려워져 인수·매각 압력을 받을 수 있다는 관측도 제기. 파라마운트 등 미디어 주식은 52주 신저가 부근이며 부채 비용 증가로 추가 악화 우려 언급. 이 영상은 스폰서 광고를 포함한 시장 해설 콘텐츠.
다듬은 글
from Jamie Diamond to Elon Musk business heavyweights have a lot to say on the state of the economy and investors may want to listen up Yahoo finance's executive editor Brian sazy joins us now this is sponsored by TC trade sa you wrote about it in the morning brief this morning on Yahoo finance some Stark warnings that we're already hearing this earning season from executive yeah and These Warnings sha and Brad are starting to pick up when I hear Elon Musk hop on an earnings call and I think just say hey Market goers we need to be more concerned about higher interest rates why because I'm seeing it real time in my business people may not be willing to spend $700 $800 $900 or in some cases $1,500 a month at these higher rates to own a Tesla vehicle this comes on the heels of of course Jamie Diamond saying this is one of the most dangerous times he is seeing in the world I talked to American Express SEO Steven squary after earnings on Friday optimistic as always uh for Stephen but I think did voice a little concern about the state of the consumer you put all these things together and you're starting to I think better understand why you're seeing this nervousness in the markets there is more going under here underneath the surface than just saying yields are near 5% stocks are going to sell off consumers are slowing down a little bit and this all comes before the holiday shopping season picks off there are more concerns underneath the hood we've seen a lot of relief rallies in certain pockets of the market over the course of the Year especially if companies are successful at perhaps couching some expectations is is that what's at play once again or is this something that's far different different calculus for CEOs there are there I think just deep structural changes happening in the market right now when you see yields go to these levels you have interest rates let's say on a on a 72 month uh to finance a car poaching 9% you have more 30-year mortgage rates near highs people haven't seen in a decade plus these are real challenging things that consumers average households are going to have to deal with and they're dealing with in real time and then oh yeah you still have inflation I know we look at all these inflation readings coming in we have inflation still at very high level levels put this together and I think you just have a market that has been unwilling to price some of these risks in and I think that's what you're seeing right now real-time adjustments by Mr Market trying to figure out what are all these concerns what all these headwinds mean for consumers then by extension what does it mean for corporate earnings in 2024 and when you talk about corporate earnings big Tech is going to be in Focus this week right we've already seen a look at a number of the larger Banks we got a good look at some of the consumer staple plays last week but when it comes to Big Tech says how much do you think is riding on the results that we're going to be getting out over the next several weeks given the fact that obviously they were the huge driver in the markets for at least the first six seven months of the year everything these are the biggest companies in the world in terms of market cap so if Apple comes up here and warns that it is is in fact seeing a China slowdown which we have been hearing increasingly B in in the recent weeks that's a concern Google doesn't meet its guidance because of higher costs and higher interest rates to fund its various lines of business that's a concern Microsoft that is the one name I think out of all the tech earnings that we're going to hear from this week that could be the upside surprise based on people that I've been talking to a lot of momentum behind uh AI various AI initiatives momentum behind office and then I think you are looking at what does a R-rated Microsoft look like in the world where it now owns Activision Blizzard and I think the streak just looking at the earnings estimates for Microsoft has not properly adjusted for that I would expect those estimates on Microsoft to go way up and way up very soon you know it would be interesting too especially from the tech perspective because there's been such an acquir to grow or consideration of all right how do we build this out internally and the acquisition or the investment strategy into AI so that they're not missing that wave that has been prominent that's been the headline over the course of this year so you got to wonder in a yield environment like this where even some of those smaller companies might be harder to get it might be harder for them to get capital and that access to Capital becomes more difficult do they eventually announce or have to move towards some type of acquisition or sale to some of these these larger companies tooo well I'm going to ask all these questions as are you at the Yahoo finance invest conference at November 7th New York City Moonlight Studios uh in terms of AI I'm actually very excited our uh Alexander garfinkle speaking to runways co-founder and CEO that is going to be an interesting uh conversation also you have uh companies that are outside of that we're talking to a lot of media seos I believe you're speaking to to Jeff Zucker media used to look at paramont shares really have trading at 52e lows that is a company right on the cusp of just seeing just I think more troubles because of the higher cost of debt a lot of debt positions but again uh we'll get into all those topics yah find invest New York City November 7th so jazzed up really really really excited you guys are both on stage with some very big people just very big a lot of fun very informative for our audience too obviously exciting good names s thanks for joining us in studio today Finance invest November 7th so excited what day yep November 7th all day every day we'll see you there
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