저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
Faber는 금·은·백금 등 귀금속 상승이 실제 인플레이션이 공식 통계보다 높다는 신호라고 주장한다. 존 윌리엄스(ShadowStats) 인플레이션 추정치가 금 가격 상승과 일치하며 공식 발표보다 정확하다고 본다. 금은 50년간 인플레이션 3% 초과기에 연평균 15%, 이하기에 6% 수익을 냈다는 World Gold Council 분석을 인용한다. 금광주(GDX)는 극도로 저평가됐다고 보며, 자신은 금을 팔지 않고 매달 계속 매수한다고 밝힌다. 중앙은행과 정치인에 대한 불신을 근거로 금·은·백금을 달러 대안 통화로 권한다.
다듬은 글
this is a very important breakout move and uh that the way it happened is likely to be a longer lasting Trend because if you look at the last 20 years or even 40 years the gold market peaked out in 1980 and then we dropped and so for and each time the market strengthened uh we had huge retail participation in other words the retail clients they jumped into the market this has not happened this time around in a study analyzing 50 years of data the world gold Council found that gold returned 15% per year on average during periods when inflation exceeded 3% in contrast gold returned just 6% annually when inflation was under 3% this demonstrates Gold's tendency to outperform when inflation is elev ated the yellow Metals big moves have many longtime gold Watchers perplexed as the metal is rallying despite economic conditions that should cause it to lag including Equity Market strength a muscular US dollar and reduced expectations for any rate Cuts soon from the Federal Reserve renowned Economist Dr Mark Faber shares his comprehensive insights on the current trends in the gold and silver markets and the complexities of global economic conditions regarding the ongoing liquidity and inflation impacting gold and silver markets Faber notes that despite the Federal Reserve interest rate hikes ample liquidity remains evidenced by the rise in Precious Metals he explains that inflation affects various segments of society differently with those holding commercial properties and variable rate mortgages feeling the most impact interestingly over the last 2 years as the price of gold has risen by an average of 5.91% US inflation Rose by an average of 6.6% this indicates that while gold lost nearly 1% % of its real value annually it still outperformed stock and bond indices which lost 5.19% and 11.16% of real value respectively on an annual basis this further supports Faber's view that precious metals remain a crucial hedge against inflation highlighting the resilience of gold and silver in preserving value amidst economic turbulence while arguing that the official inflation rates are underst stated Faber sees the climbing gold and silver prices as indicators of a much higher actual inflation rate despite the government's vested interest in Under reporting inflation to keep interest rates low Faber predicts that this manipulation of inflation data is rooted in the tendency of politicians to mislead the public for their advantage now we present the clips of Mark Faber's insights from his recent interview with natural resource stocks before we continue to delve into this discussion please subscribe to our Channel and activate the Bell icon for timely updates in general I think that asset markets which have continued to go up and more recently uh Gold Silver and platinum and also other Commodities they're telling us that there is still plenty of liquidity in other words it is possible that the FED increased interest rates but that money hasn't really become very tight I want to repeat here something that I have expressed in the past inflation is a very unusual complex because it doesn't touch all members of soci Society equally in other words if you own a commercial property and your interest rates go up substantially suddenly as it has happened since 2020 then uh you may have a problem because there is a clut of commercial properties and with the rise in interest rates the property value has obviously decline substantially in some cases actually astoundingly I mean their properties that sell for less than half of what they sold uh in 2018 2015 and so course have many examples and pictures of these buildings actually at this price I was kind of myself interested to buy some because I think they're rather low but you never know how Society changes and whether it's permanent that people will not go and work in offices anymore more and just stay home and at the same time there is plenty of liquidity if you look at the meme stocks that just just suddenly rebounded strongly in the last few weeks and other stocks like semiconductors or nedia that keeps on going up then you can't talk about tight liquidity and also you and I we may be in a different position the household in America the typical household has household debts mortgage debts and then it depends you know how these mortgages are structured are these fixed rate mortgages in the US you can fix them I think for about 15 years in Canada you can't and in Switzerland the maximum you can fix the mortgage is like five years offers they become variable mortgages the people that have variable mortgages they are hurt in their income in real terms because suddenly they have to pay much higher mortgages and so forth and so on uh the point is simply the rise in precious metals to me and to other people it may suggest something different but to me it suggests that actually the rate of inflation that we have is much higher than what the statistics indicate the statistics that are published by the government because the government has every interest to keep interest rates as low as possible because they themselves suffer under a huge Deb and a huge level of liabilities arising from the unfunded debts that they have the unfunded liabilities the government has an interest to cheat and this is in the blood of politicians lying cheating and stealing that is in their DNA they will never publish the true rate of inflation during the interview Mark Faber believes that the recent John Williams inflation estimates correlate closely with Rising gold prices and are more accurate than government reports this suggests the gold market accurately reflects true inflation indicating potential further increases in gold prices Williams reiterated that after an unexpected gain in the pce and other inflation gauges during the first quarter policy makers need to see more evidence that price pressures steadily fall before trimming The Benchmark rate from its current range between 5.25% and 5.5% despite recent fluctuations Faber asserts the persistent undervaluation of mining stocks and his consistent accumulation of Gold without selling driven by a deep distrust in Central Bank policies he advocates for Gold Silver and platinum as stable alternatives to Fiat currencies let's get back to the interview this is very good idea he has just recently publish a figure that is very interesting because I have been following John Williams for the last 20 30 years my impression was always that he exaggerated a little bit with the rate of price increases that he indicated in other words they were usually two to two twice as high as what the government published but more recently I think that his figures reflect the reality more than what the government is but he published a chart which I think is very important and you can ask him at the time about it published the chart of the gold price and his inflation rate the gold chart and his inflation rate the rate of ascendency coincides precisely it's very interesting so I think the gold market and people who buy gold they smell and the market is smarter than politicians and fund managers and supp for the market is what the market is it goes up there's a reason usually it's liquidity but sometimes the other reasons that the market goes up or sometimes the market goes down sometimes tight liquidity but there can also be other reason and but John Williams chart the way his inflation figures go up along with the gold price is amazing if you don't believe me take a chart and comp compare the GDX the gold uh ETF gold minor ETF and compare it to the S&P 500 or take the GDX the gold mining ETF and compare it to the physical price of gold and silver and so for the mining stocks are unbelievably depressed but they were even more depressed say three months ago many have already doubled from their lows and or up 50% now now yesterday was a disastrous day for the gold miners who knows why the gold price near term is probably a bit overboard as I said for the last 40 years I do not value my goal I only look at the weight I buy every months I never sell gold I just keep on accumulating now is it possible that I have a bit more allocated to silver or platinum and to go that could be the case but in general I think as I'm not saying a responsible individual but someone who is cautious and someone who distrusts the people that run the central bank I distrust them with all my heart because I also know their background and so for their academics and they are essentially working with the government and the government has press puts pressure on them to do things but anyway I would hold let's put it this way if we have a discussion and you and I would discuss about the US dollar is it strong is it going to be weak and so for and then I say to you okay what would you prefer to US Dollars the Yen the Euro the Singapore dollar the Chinese Yan or the Brazilian real or Mexican pzo or God knows what I would say there is one currency that stands out as the most steady and that is gold silver and and platinum that I would hold as a currency alternative to the US dollar the other currencies are not much better and most of them are worse gold has a knack for shining brightest when inflation levels soar hinting at its potential as a reliable hedge against economic uncertainty despite official reports possibly downplaying inflation the thriving performance of gold hints at underlying pressure this could signal an untapped potential for gold to Surge further what's your perspective on this Divergence between reported inflation rates and Gold's resilience drop your thoughts in the comment section below if you find this video informative don't forget to support our Channel and turn on notifications to stay informed about our latest videos see you in the next video for
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