저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 버리가 주식 전량 매도를 주장했다는 내용을 바탕으로 한 영상으로, 금리 인상·버블 종목 재등장·기업 구조조정을 근거로 약세장 랠리가 가짜일 수 있다고 본다. [금리 인상 및 인플레이션] 연준이 4~5% 수준의 인플레이션을 2%로 낮추기 위해 금리를 계속 올릴 가능성이 있다고 설명한다. 금리가 제로였던 시기와 달리 주식·부동산에서 같은 수익률을 기대하기 어려워 자금이 다른 곳으로 이동할 수 있다고 본다. 연준의 금리 인상 속도가 1980년대 이후 가장 빠르다는 점을 언급한다. 2007년 4.5~5% 금리 수준과 비교하며 당시의 결과를 떠올리게 한다. [마이클 버리 트윗 인용 - 인플레이션 정점] 인플레이션이 정점을 찍었더라도 사이클의 마지막 정점은 아닐 가능성이 크다고 인용한다. 2023년 2분기 미국 CPI가 낮아지거나 마이너스가 될 수 있고, 연준이 금리를 내리고 정부가 부양하면 인플레이션이 다시 급등할 수 있다고 전한다. [버블 종목 재등장] 1월 상승률 예시로 루시드 110%, 카바나 75%, 테슬라 7% 등을 들며 랠리가 지나치게 빠르다고 지적한다. 아마존·메타·스냅 등 빅테크의 대규모 감원도 함께 언급한다. [기업 구조조정 및 실적] 화이트칼라 일자리 감축이 진행되며 기업 이익이 절반 가까이 줄 수 있다고 전망한다. 세일즈포스(CRM)는 25% 이상 하락해야 한다는 버리의 견해를 소개한다. [결론] 진행자는 금리 인상, 투기적 버블 재현, 구조조정을 근거로 버리의 약세장 랠리 경고에 동의하는 입장이다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry just came out on Twitter and said to sell what does this mean for the stock market what's going on because there's been a huge bear Market rally already for January the s p is already up seven plus percent the NASDAQ is up 13 plus percent Michael Bergen has predicting a lot of these crashes from recent times he got famous from the 2008 financial crisis that came because of the credit default swaps he predicted that market crash he predicted in 2021 this huge bubble with a lot of these kind of spat companies and companies with no profits that were going to get killed in the market eventually and all the speculative bubble Michael burry has been right on a lot of things but do you guys think he's right about this bear Market Rally or do you think it's fake like he does I'm gonna go over three reasons why Michael burry says sell everything and he's been talking about this constantly so let's go over his Twitter tweets and everything that he talks about why to sell now so Michael burry said sell everything right before the FED minutes the FED came out and approved the quarter point hike so the fifth continues to try to kill inflation it said inflations around four to five percent and it's trying to get it at two percent so the FED is gonna keep raising interest rates as long as the FED keeps seeing inflation at this four to five percent because it wants it at two percent so as if that it keeps increasing rates this will affect the stock market and it will affect the real estate market because people are looking at different areas to get some interest because the stock market in the real estate market isn't going to provide the same amount of returns that it did before when the interest rates were at zero the FED is Raising interest rates at the fastest rate since 1980s the last time the FED had interest rates at 4.5 percent to five percent was during 2007 and we all know what happened during 2007 so a lot of people are predicting the same type of outcomes as before so this is why Michael burry has came out and said to sell Michael Berry released this tweet about the Federal Reserve and what's gonna happen in the market inflation peaked but it's not the last peak of the cycle we are likely to see CPI lower possibly negative in second quarter of 2023 in the U.S in the recession by any definition the federal cut and the government will stimulate and we will have another inflation spike it is not hard the second reason is because the silliness in the market is happening again these bubble stocks are peaking they're going higher remember when he said the silliness must go 29 companies had a market cap over 10 billion with ebitda of less than a hundred million all the silliness must go Michael burry tweeted this out look what's been happening in the market look at the thoughts that have rallied in January so far loosen up 110 percent W up 102 Open Door up 90 a firm up 82 percent carvana up 75 Tesla up seven percent already and this is just the beginning of January which is crazy returns just for one month this rally is coming too fast we even have other companies moving way too fast spot up 43 shop up 42 Nvidia 34 AMC 31 percent Square thirty percent it's not 29 Salesforce 27 but you can see how this rally has just continued it reminds me back in 2020 when all of these stocks were just running high no matter what was happening you're seeing this in January we tell investors are getting right back into the market they're buying a lot of stocks right now so that's why you see a lot of these stocks running up really high so I guarantee you Michael burry is seeing this as a bear Market rally that is going to come down because of these interest rates hikes a lot of these stocks do not deserve these 30 40 re-rates right now because not a lot of news that came out about these stocks that deserve these huge pops do you think the silliness in the market is back with all these meme stocks kind of going up high again what's your take on this and tell me what you think down below lastly Michael burry talked about a lot of white-collar jobs doing job cuts which is coming because a lot of corporate profits are going down so how is this going to affect earnings and how is this going to affect the future if companies are not making as much money they're going going to have to do a lot of cost cutting a lot of efficiency stuff so hopefully they can see that come back into the company but what if that doesn't happen he even looks at CRM he said CRM should be down more than 25 and job cuts are not the only reason why not to own sales force so you can kind of see what's happening because all the tech companies laying off a lot of people we see Snapchat we see Meta we see Amazon so you kind of see a lot of these companies going through these corporate Cuts right now and that might be the story of 2023 so I think that's what Michael burry is seeing in the market so we have the Federal Reserve raising interest rates trying to kill down inflation the second reason because we see a lot of silliness in the market we see like Lucid we see like AMC kind of Riding High right now it's a speculative bubble happening again in 2023 let's see what happens and then we have all these job Cuts happening corporate profits are probably going to get cut in half this year as a lot of companies are preparing by doing a lot of job Cuts what do you think about Michael burry's tweet about cell right now guys like this video And subscribe to my channel peace
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