Jamie Dimon Crisis: What To Do Now! Economic Forecast 2023

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Jamie Dimon 발언을 바탕으로 한 경기침체 우려 해설 영상입니다. 거시 우려: 지정학 리스크(러-우 전쟁, 중국 재개방), 10년 최고 수준의 인플레이션, 추가 금리 인상 가능성, 양적긴축(QT)의 미지 효과 등을 열거합니다. 연준 파월 의장은 인플레가 높은 한 금리를 계속 올릴 것이라 언급합니다. 경기 전망: 6~9개월 내 미국이 더 깊은 경기침체에 빠질 수 있으며, 유럽은 이미 침체 상태라는 진단입니다. 진행자는 현재도 침체 중이라고 봅니다. 소비·은행: 소비자 지출은 작년 대비 10%, 코로나 이전 대비 35% 늘어 여전히 견조하고 재무상태도 2008~09년보다 양호하다고 설명합니다. 다만 인플레와 금리 상승으로 저축이 줄고 있고, 웰스파고·시티그룹은 모기지 대출을 줄이고 지급준비를 늘리는 중입니다. 금리 전망: 금리가 5% 이상으로 더 오를 가능성이 크고, 유가는 향후 10년 상승 압력이 있다는 견해입니다. 노동 공급 감소 등 구조적 인플레 요인도 언급합니다. 투자 전략: 예측이 불가능하므로 10~20년 이상 위기를 견뎌온 강한 기업을 보유하라는 조언입니다. 개별 종목 언급이나 단기 가격 방향 예측은 없습니다.

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01. Jamie Diamond the CEO of JPMorgan Chase is worried about a recession slash Crisis coming up in a few months he's able to see all the customer transactions happening in the banking system so he knows what's going on because there's a lot of risk going on in the market today we have the geopolitical risk happening right now with Ukrainian with Russia we have China opening up how is that relationship going to pan out we still have inflation at all-time highs in the last 10 years we still have a potential interest rate hike very very soon so Jamie Diamond is still worried about the economy in this video we're going to break it down we're going to talk about what to do we're going to listen to the words of Jamie Diamond and what he thinks about the economy and moving forward and how to deal with it before we get into this video like it and subscribe to my channel JPMorgan Bank of America Citigroup BlackRock All released their earnings this month and surprisingly it was pretty positive especially with the economy going sour and everyone worried about the recession these earnings presented a good start to the year even with these earnings coming out these Banks still have recession fears we can hear in this video that Jamie Diamond still thinks that the consumers are healthy and they're spending money currently right now the US economy is actually still doing well consumers have money you know fiscal stimulus they still have more than they have before they're spending 10 percent more than last year 35 percent more than pre-covered their balance sheets are in great shape yes that's gone up a little bit but not nearly to pre-covert levels and therefore even going to recession they're going to be in much better shape than 0809 companies are in good shape credit's very good markets are still open though Rocky and stuff like that even with all those positive things the market is turning sour because they understand that inflation and interest rates are still moving higher which is good at putting stress on the balance sheet of a lot of consumers a lot of consumers are actually losing their savings as we speak because of inflation and because of interest rates we can actually see Wells Fargo actually planning to hold back on their mortgage business we can see Citigroup we can see Wells Fargo not lending out as much and they're making sure that they keep more reserves in their Bank in case of a major crisis happens because they're expecting a big economic slowdown or even a mild recession to happen very soon in the future even though we can still see consumers spending money people are still worried about the future and what could potentially happen as an investor in the stock market you have to understand in the short term the FED is going to decide what happens in the market drone pal is hell-bent on making sure that inflation doesn't run too high and he's going to raise interest rates as high as possible just so the inflation cools down as your own Powell keeps promising that interest rates are going to keep Rising as long as inflation runs high we can see people flooding over to bonds we can see people not buying cars as much not borrowing money because their rates are just way too high and you're not going to get enough return this is a big reason why Jamie Diamond is worried about the economy right now but you gotta you can't talk about the economy talking about the stuff in the future and and this is serious stuff okay this is inflation which obviously is you know changing the effect those numbers I just told you about it's rates going up more than people expected already and probably a little bit more from here it's QT which we've never had before uh so therefore the unknown effects you see it today and bond markets around the world and Sovereign markets and people selling U.S treasury debt and it's the war and these are very very serious things which I think are likely to push the US and the world I mean Europe is already in recession then they're likely to put U.S in some kind of recession six nine months from now so in six to nine months the economy might go into a deeper recession I still think it's a recession right now but what should you do now as an investor in the stock market in my opinion the strategies are always going to be the same in just holding great companies with strong modes that can stand the test of the time because the economy can go anywhere even with Jamie diamonds saying that the economy might go into a recession he doesn't know and he repeats that over and over again that he doesn't know whether economy is going to go but you have to hold companies that can go with the flow can fight the fears of a recession can handle everything that's going to come straight at it I know you don't like to mind read at least what the future of the economy is but the other pieces migrating what do you think Jay Powell is going to do because that has such a massive impact not just on the US kind but everywhere look I just point out that everyone who forecast this has been wrong including the fed by the way you're talking about the recession piece or what they should be doing about it because they teach they're sort of two inflation the whole thing like so as a businessman be prepared for all of us I tell people I would go to my board we talk about if x happens if y ABS I give it probabilities I actually think rates will probably go higher than five percent higher than five percent that's my own view because I think there's a lot of underlying inflation which won't go away so quick I think we've had the benefit of China slowing down the benefit of oil prices dropping a little bit I think oil and gas prices probably go up the next 10 years we're not invested enough for the oil and gas to actually keep it low and it's you know and it's also fragile system so like one terrorist bomb and you see you can see we can have the oil prices and so I I think we should be very and wage is not going to win that much people left the workforce um China isn't going to be deflationary anymore all these other factors taking place so I think it may have to be more than that but again if we have a mild recession rates go to six percent we're all gonna be fine so even with all prices that may not go down for a while with the Ukrainian Russian war when is that going to be solved because that's having a huge impact on the stock market and not just making everything more unpredictable we have the China opening up we see Janet Yellen talking to Chinese officials hopefully that relationship builds and can come to an agreement because it'll just provide a lot more stability in the market Jamie Diamond is telling you that you should prepare for the worst and you should prepare for any type of environment so you need to have solid companies because you just don't know what's gonna happen and it's good to look at companies that had 10 15 20 years of history of showing you that it's showing you that it can survive many economic towns and downtrends and uptrends and just things that just been thrown at it again and again those are the companies that you want in this type of market right now as the unpredictable is just so unknown at this point so guys like this video And subscribe to my channel what companies are you buying peace