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2023년 경제 전망 결론: 인플레이션 정점은 지나갔지만 고금리가 장기간 유지되며 경기침체 위험이 크고, 성장주 대신 현금흐름·에너지·은행주가 유리하다는 진행자 견해. 마이클 버리(Michael Burry) 트윗: 인플레이션 정점은 지났으나 사이클의 마지막 정점은 아니며, CPI는 2023년에 하락할 것으로 봄. 연준이 인플레이션 하락 후 금리를 인하하면 인플레이션이 재상승할 수 있다고 경고. 워런 버핏의 셰브론·옥시덴털 매수는 유가 상승에 따른 에너지 기업 수익성 전망을 반영한 것으로 해석. 캐시 우드(Kathy Wood) 견해: 연준이 경기침체 지표를 무시하는 중대한 실수를 하고 있으며, 미국과 캐나다는 이미 경기침체 상태라는 주장. 일론 머스크는 연준에 즉각적인 금리 인하를 촉구했으나, 진행자는 테슬라 수요 둔화를 배경으로 한 이해관계로 해석. 금리 전망: 하워드 막스의 견해를 인용해 2023년, 나아가 2024년까지 금리가 현 수준에서 유지될 것으로 예상. 높은 금리는 부채 상환 부담을 키우고 기술주 밸류에이션 프리미엄을 낮출 것이라고 봄. 자금 흐름: 공포로 약 12조 달러가 시장에서 이탈했다고 언급. 연준 금리가 2007년 이후 최고 수준이라고 설명. 인플레이션: 6월 약 9%에서 11월 약 7%로 하락했으나, 임대료·식료품 가격 체감은 7%보다 높아 소비 위축 우려. 주식 전망: 진행자는 S&P500이 2023년 횡보하거나 하락할 수 있다고 보며, 과대평가된 기술주에서 자금이 빠져나간다고 판단. 에너지 시장: 러시아의 대(對) 가격상한 국가 석유 수출 중단 방침으로 유가 상승 가능성. 이는 인플레이션 재자극 요인으로 지목. 유럽연합(EU)의 초과이익세(windfall profit levy)에 대해 엑손모빌이 소송을 제기했으며, 진행자는 EU의 조치를 과도하다고 평가. 버리도 우크라이나-러시아 전쟁 수혜 기업 관련 기사를 공유.
다듬은 글
so Michael burry just tweeted about the economy and about inflation for 2023 is starting off with a bang he's talking about Peak inflation what's gonna happen with the economy in 2023 we're gonna get into it because it's good to hear from Michael burry because he did predict the macro crash of the 2008 financial crisis so it's important to hear what he has to say because there's so much happening in this economy and we got to prepare for the future because this might affect our investments and you have to just be aware of what's going on think about it Warren Buffett's not buying Chevron and oxy just because he likes the company he's understanding what's happening in the economy right now and why all prices are going up and with oil prices going up it's creating an amazing run for a lot of these oil companies that he can see that into the future so let's look at what Michael burry is saying let's hear what Michael burry has to say about inflation and what the FED is going to do about interest rates in the near term so Michael burry just tweeted this oh look what he has to say about inflation deflation peaked but it's not the last peak of the cycle we are likely to see CPI lower so he's actually predicting that the CPI is going to be lower for this year which is actually a great thing and the government is doing a lot they're increasing interest rates like crazy because they want that CPI down people can't afford oil groceries just buying consumer goods like everything is just down in the drain because the prices are skyrocketed possibly negative in the second half of 2023 and the US in a recession by any definition the federal cut and the government will stimulate damn like we do not need this we have people like Elon Musk actually advocating for the FED to cut during these times we do not need a Fed cut If the Fed cut just like Michael burgey just said inflation is just going to Skyrocket again Elon Musk tweets that the FED must cut interest rates immediately or cause a severe recession and the only reason why Elon Musk is tweeting this because he sees the demand for his products going down like people are not buying Teslas like crazy because your interest rates are just too high your payment on the vehicle will be just crazy so he's like damn no we do not want the FED to raise interest rates but this is what is needed in the economy man we don't need inflated grocery bills and consumer goods and just products man it's killing the average consumer so that's why the FED is doing this and then we have also Kathy Wood Kathy what is saying the exact same thing Kathy would have said that the FED is making a serious Mistake by ignoring the critical recession indicator we already know that the U.S Canada are already in a recession just look at any indicator like the growth of the US and the Canada has just been going down and down is pretty much negative but it doesn't matter right now because the FED doesn't care about that it's looking at inflation and the only way to cut inflation is to raise interest rates that's what happened in the 1970s when volcker did it that was the most successful way of doing it so that's what the FED is doing right now that's what Michael burry is afraid of that the FED is going to see inflation going down and they're just gonna cut interest rates again increase inflation again leading to probably a more major recession and we will have another inflation Spike it's not hard and that's what he's tweeting he's pretty much predicting that the Federal Reserve is just going to see inflation going down and down and down and then if that's going to be like oh damn this is a good opportunity to cut rates again but then the inflation is just gonna Spike all over again so he's saying no we got to keep interest rates high or kind of going up and that's what the FED has been doing and that's what people are predicting for 2023 investors breaks for more market tomorrow as interest rates keep Rising people in the industry people on Wall Street are expecting interest rates to keep at the steady Pace looking at back at Howard marks the sea change I made a video about this is that he's seeing the interest rate environment stand Pat for 2023 maybe even into 2024 so what is that going to do to equities a lot of these technology stocks are not going to get these premium valuations because people are just looking at cash flow they're not looking at growth anymore more with the higher interest rates debt servicing is going to be harder to do so when you have that world view of interest rates are going to be high inflation might not go all the way down people are looking to energy stocks looking to more Bank stocks because they benefit from a higher interest rate so that's how people are starting to think about investing and we're seeing this firsthand 12 trillion dollars has already left the market because people are scared the stock market turned upside down last year when the Federal Reserve abandoned its Easy Money policies and that's what's been happening for the last 12 years do you guys think the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this year I just don't see it and that's going to affect stocks like Tesla any stocks that are very cyclical it's going to affect those stocks many investors say the ramifications are beginning to Ripple through the markets the central bank has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2007.
guys inflation in June was around nine percent they have it in November of last year at seven percent and it was kind of going down out so if inflation is still at seven percent and most people don't even agree with that because you're seeing rent prices they're seeing grocery prices going way higher than seven percent so majority of people understand that no one wants to spend their money so if no one's spending their money in all these consumer good product companies that need people to spend their money it's just not going to happen so a lot of investors are seeing pretty much a flat s p this year and I kind of agree with that I think it's going to be flat or maybe even go down because people are leaving the flashy tech stocks that everyone was grossly overvaluing in 2021 so that's what a lot of people are forecasting and with Energy prices going up Energy prices continue to go up because a lot of stuff is happening Russia banned sales of oil to countries imposing price caps so any per so any country that has a price cap on oil of 60 or more because people want to cap the price of oil because they don't want Energy prices to go up but Russia is like damn why were we doing that we want more revenue and people are just Banning our oil production pretty much they're going to start batting the exports to countries that have these price caps what do you think that's going to do to the economy no one really knows but if that happened you can kind of see Energy prices going up and if Energy prices go up damn that's gonna cause more inflation and some more there's headaches to the economy man there's a lot happening in 2023 that can come to fruition Exxon sues EU over windfall profit Levy this levy on Exxon is because they're seeing their oil prices go up like crazy they're getting all this money but EU is like not everyone in the EU is suffering right now and we want the money that you're making but that makes no sense because they're just taking that money for themselves they're not putting that money to the customers or the people that actually have to pay higher prices because of the oil problem going on right now I think EU is being greedy and being really short-minded Michael burry actually tweeted this article out and sing pretty much the same thing a lot of companies are profiting off this Ukraine Russian war no one knows when this Ukraine and Russia war is going to end so how is this going to affect oil prices inflation just demand for products like shipping costs like there's so much to talk about with this economy right now what do you think about the economy going forward in 2023 even though it's like the second day man there's so much happening there's so much to talk about guys what do you think about all of this like And subscribe peace
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