저자: HowardMarks·PhilTown인용 · 외국인
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결론: 하워드 막스는 지난 40여 년의 금리 하락 국면이 끝나고 새로운 '큰 변화(sea change)'가 올 수 있다고 보며, 과거 전략이 앞으로도 통한다는 보장은 없다고 경고한다. 하워드 막스의 시장 전환 인식: 그는 투자 경력 53년 동안 두 번의 큰 변화를 봤다고 말한다. 첫 번째는 리스크를 회피 대상이 아니라 수익과 비교해 평가하는 사고방식의 전환으로, 하이일드 채권·사모투자·부실채권 등 새로운 투자 영역이 등장한 계기였다. 두 번째 변화는 1973~1974년 OPEC 금수 조치로 유가가 몇 달 만에 치솟고 물가가 급등한 시기다. 당시 연준 의장 폴 볼커는 기준금리를 20%까지 올려 인플레이션을 잡았고, 이후 40여 년간 금리가 점진적으로 내려오며 주식·자산 상승의 강력한 순풍이 됐다. 금리 하락기의 성과 요인: 경제 성장, 미국 우위, 대형 기술기업의 실적, 생산성·경영 기법, 세계화도 기여했지만 막스는 40년간의 금리 하락이 가장 큰 역할을 했다고 본다. 저금리로 싸게 빌려 자산을 사는 환경이 가능했던 것이다. 앞으로의 전망: 연준이 제로금리 근처로 돌아가기는 어렵고 금리가 3~5% 수준의 정상 범위로 올라갈 수 있다는 것이 핵심 전제다. 이 경우 투자자는 주식 대신 신용상품(채권)에서도 괜찮은 수익을 얻을 수 있게 되어 위험자산 의존도가 줄어든다. 전략에 대한 함의: 막스는 과거 13~20년간 잘 통하던 전략이 앞으로는 최고 성과를 내지 못할 수 있다고 본다. 진행자는 이 맥락에서 Phil Town을 인용해, 시장이 1960년대처럼 10~20년간 횡보할 수 있으니 저평가 기업을 사서 내재가치 근처에서 파는 가치투자와 재무 건전성·경영진·성장성 점검이 여전히 유효하다고 강조한다. 리스크: 장기간 시장 무수익 가능성, 금리 정상화에 따른 주식 밸류에이션 압박. 출연자 전망은 방향성 수치 없이 구조적 경고에 가깝다. 특정 자산 가격 방향에 대한 1~3개월 예측 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
Howard Marx just came out and said there's gonna be a big c change what he means by that is this could be a big difference in the landscape of investing and we're going to get into why he's saying this because he's only seen two previously different sea changes in his lifetime at 53 years of investing to pandemics to Bubbles to crashes everything he's dealt with everything and he's seen two see changes and now he's saying there's gonna be a big third one coming up right now and we have to understand this because if he is right on this this could be a big change in our investment strategy or we're gonna have to do something different or kind of just think about it differently because you have to remember in the history of the stock market just being crazy things happening and people keep thinking stocks always go up they never go down they just stay consistently up up but if you know the history of the stock market that is not true there's been crazy amounts of movements in the stock market where there's been zero gain in 20 plus years so if we had a 13-year bull market and we're coming off that do you really think this would be another 13 plus year bull market so we have to keep that in mind when we're thinking about the investment future there is a likely chance where the market doesn't go anywhere for 10 plus years maybe even 20 plus years because it's happened so many times in the history of the stock market the last episode of invested Phil Town actually goes through this Danielle Town his daughter acts Phil town is there a time period where stocks is a bad investment and he says yes there's been so many time periods where stocks were a bad investment and he goes through this if you bought the whole market index between 1965 to 1983 the return of the whole Market was Zero from 1929 to 1956 the rate of return of the whole Market was Zero from 1903 to 1921 the rate of return of the whole Market where it's zero there's been a lot of periods in time where the market has gone nowhere so do you believe that that can happen into the future of course that can so you have to find what's going to work in those time periods where the market goes nowhere and you have to be prepared for that so we're gonna get into that right now but let's go into what Howard marks was saying about the two big sea changes before this third one coming up the first Big C change came when a lot of Industries and a lot of firms looked at risk in return but before that they didn't look at that because they were afraid to invest in any type of bonds that seemed kind of risky and they didn't look at the return factor that you can make money on risky bets if they provide a great return so that mindset wasn't into Washi at that time and actually Howard marks took huge advantage of that investing in these kind of risky bets but they provided a good return and that was a big sea change from what was there before because while she would not invest in those risky type of assets however the most important aspect of this change didn't relate to high-yield bonds or to private Equity but rather to the adoption of a new investor mentality and now risk wasn't necessarily avoided but a rather considered relative to return hopefully born intelligently the new risk return mindset was critical in the development of many new types of Investments such as distressed debt mortgage-backed Securities structured credit and private lending Etc that was the first Big C change that Howard Mark saw the next sea change that happened in the market in the macro world is when the OPEC embargo happened when oil came from 24 and shot up in less than a year to 65 dollars would cost a lot of inflation during the 1973-1974 and with all the Consumer Price Index going upshooting past 11 Paul Walker the FED chairman had to kill that whole inflation he went up all the way up to 20 fed fund rate just to cancel inflation and shoot it back down and with this all happening and with the next sea change coming up because with that this made forth the next government to come in and kind of lower interest rates slowly kind of get the market to kind of pick up again and over the 40 plus years interest rates have been going down with inflation not going up as well kind of remaining as steady as possible the last 40 years was all about lowering of interest rates and kind of stimulating the economy an incredible Tailwind what are the factors that gave rush to investors success over the last 40 years we saw a major contribution from economic growth preeminence of the US by the incredible performance of our greatest companies gangs and Technology productivity management techniques and the benefits of globalization however I'd be surprised if 40 Years of declining interest rates didn't play the greatest role of all so what Howard Marx is saying that the Fed was just increasingly just lowering interest rates providing a lot of liquidity into the markets buying bonds buying stocks just giving all that money in into the market people were actually able to borrow at these low prices borrowing money buying all these assets but that is no more the FED is going to continually have these rates at higher rates not one percent not almost zero percent anymore probably closer to four to five percent so what is that gonna do for the economy moving forward as maybe you don't have to look to assets or look to stocks to get these returns you can look more to bonds and you don't have to invest and risk your assets stocks in his opinion what's gonna happen to the market in the next 40 years you may never see interest rates at all time lows again but what happens with normal interest rates may be above three percent to four to five percent what is that going to do for stocks into the future and Howard marks goes into this we've gone from the low return world of 2009 to 2001 to a full return World it may become more so in the near term investors can now potentially get solid returns from credit instruments mean they no longer have to rely heavily on riskier investments to achieve the overall return targets AKA stocks Landers and bargain hunters face much better prospects in this change environment that they did in 2009-2001 and importantly if you grant that the environment is and may can continue to be very different from what it was over the last 13 years in most of the last 40 years it should follow that the investment strategies that work the best over those periods may not be the ones to outperform in years ahead that's the sea change I'm talking about he's coming out and saying that the investment strategies that people were using 13 20 years ago might not be the same going forward so what should you do knowing that the market can give you a zero percent return over the next 20 years easily after a 13-year plus bull market it can easily do that so what should you do so what investment strategy should you use knowing that this could potentially happen you still have to use the kind of the same old strategies of investing in companies that are undervalued and what Phil town was saying is that you invest in and companies that are undervalued when they get to intrinsic value you sell off during those times in the 1960s where the market went nowhere the dial went from a thousand back to 600 back up to a thousand down to 700.
so during those times in those middle of those spreads you can make money and that's all about buying companies but low intrinsic value selling them at intrinsic value below intrinsic value selling them above intrinsic value so that might be the strategy that you might have to be using going forward but it's still the same process where you're buying undervalued companies waiting to the reach intrinsic value and you're still holding them so guys still using the same value investing strategies going forward but you have to make sure that the companies can survive they have strong balance sheets strong management the revenue is still growing the earnings are still growing they have good Capital allocators so the same strategies you were using in the past you're gonna be using for the future in these hard times that might come up guys if you like this video like it subscribe to my channel and I get back to you in the next video peace
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