원문 보기
or updated patrons dave r dickey and michael s today just a fun fact apple has overtaken tesla as one of the most shorted united states stocks now this is just in terms of notional value or the number of shares shorted times the value of those shares at the time so currently apple with around 1 billion dollars more in short interest however i've always personally preferred to look at the short interest as a percentage of the total market cap looking at those numbers apple comes in at 0.75 of the current market cap being shorted and tesla would be a little bit higher actually at 1.83 of its current market cap and going one step further that would be around 57.3 million shares shorted right now for tesla stock given that there are around 3.133 billion shares outstanding after the recent split we haven't checked in on this in a while but this is from s3 partners these figures are pre-tesla stock split by the way orange is the number of shares shorted and the green is going to be the notional value or the number of those shares times the market price at the end of 2021 there were around 30 million shares of tesla stock shorted but to factor in for the stock split multiply that by three that would be 90 million shares shorted compare that to the number on the previous screen it was around 57 million that is the current shares shorted for tesla stock so so far this year continuing to go down some of you may even remember before tesla turned profitable back in 2018 the short interest as a percentage of the free float rather than outstanding shares was as high as 26 and i believe it did eclipse 30 next up i want to share some of the highlights from bradford's twitter recording the more i think about this that this might go on for the next decade the more i realize how big of a deal this is really going to be of course tesla's margins have a huge impact on the valuation that wall street puts on tesla stock and we knew that tesla could achieve margins you know in the neighborhood of 40 with some of the software as a service type revenue that was without this so i'm not saying anything's gonna happen you know next year but once we get to 2024 and beyond tesla hitting 45 50 margins as crazy as it sounds if this ira plays out like we think that it will i definitely think that's in the realm of possibility before we get into this i think it's important to preface the conversation with the fact that there's still a level of uncertainty for how this is all going to work out especially from an accounting standpoint where tesla's profits are coming from how production tax credits will be treated potentially differently than investment tax credits there's a whole level of nuance and complication that the general public just really isn't privy to when it comes to tesla's accounting and the government by the way is still working out some of the details of this inflation reduction act so we're just going with what we know bradford did mention he talked with the rocky mountain institute now this is a research firm in the field of sustainability and they apparently help to form some of this policy so this data he's pretty confident in even though tesla's 4680s are going into structural packs the way the rule is written they should still qualify for both of the above portions the 35 dollars per kilowatt hour for sales and the 10 per kilowatt hour for battery module manufacturing we talked about this next one in a prior episode but tesla should get all of the tax credits from the partnership with panasonic at gigan nevada and it's because of this agreement here it is the giga nevada agreement between tesla and panasonic this will be quick because we've covered it before but credits will belong to tesla and tesla will keep all of the documentation necessary to permit tesla to receive these benefits or credits so starting in 2023 i did just change that doing the math tesla could be receiving around 1.5 billion dollars in these credits just from the current production that they are already doing at gigan nevada this advanced manufacturing tax credit is not subject to the critical minerals requirements like the regular ev tax credit it's in a separate section of the code now this is where some of the nuance and complication comes in most of tesla's profits right now are coming from giga shanghai tesla has a lot of overhead in the united states with its headquarters here research and development giga austin and it's not really producing cars yet at scale the word is though with this ira that even if tesla doesn't have united states profits they will still be able to receive direct payments from the united states government to actually receive these tax credits for this production credit now if tesla actually has to go that direct payment route they would actually owe taxes on that money so that would be not as ideal as receiving them as tax credits and keep in mind this really isn't even touching on the investment tax credits for solar and energy storage or 4680 production at cato road and eventually giga austin there are just huge wide sweeping implications for this ira bill and lastly lathrop or lathrup can somebody confirm that for me by the way i've heard people argue both sides how do you actually pronounce that properly either way that should qualify this new mega pack facility for that ten dollars per kilowatt hour module production meaning once that facility is scaled to around 40 gigawatt hours per year that's another potential 400 million dollars in credits so i wanted to spend a few minutes disseminating this information because the way i see it this is one of the most impactful things to tesla right now maybe secondary to the 4680 ramp because of the implications for cyber truck and semi next year but it might be a 1a 1b type of situation of course this is always subject to change but if this inflation reduction act remains in effect until 2030 like it's written now that could potentially mean hundreds of billions of dollars to tesla when you start talking about terawatt hour levels of battery cell production real quick i think if most of us really knew how much our online activity was being tracked and the increasing rate of scams fishing attempts and more bad actors trying to steal our information i genuinely believe most of us would use a vpn like surf shark as soon as possible and yes surf shark is the sponsor of today's video but as always i only mention products or services that have actually impacted my life and thank you to matt farrell at undecided for turning me on to surf shark in the first place surf shark is a vpn that protects your personal info anywhere you use the internet so whether you're at home a local coffee shop or in an airport surf shark gives you peace of mind speaking of airports surf shark can also help you find better deals on flights and hotels a feature i'm actually using this week for a friend's bachelor party next year and if you're like me and you're sick of websites with ads all over the place surf shark can help here too with its clean web feature that will block these ads trackers and malware to prevent phishing attempts my favorite feature though is how surf shark can make your ip address look like it's coming from a different country this allows you to stream video from locations around the world bypassing geo restrictions and unlocking new content you can use my code electrify to get 83 off and three extra months free surfshark also offers a 30-day money-back guarantee so there is literally no risk to try it for yourself the link is in the description below just a quick note on the wall street journal article from yesterday a lot of people out there are now thinking that tesla's going to shut down giga berlin's 4680 factory and they're no longer going to make sales there that's just not accurate tesla will undoubtedly still manufacture 4680s in berlin it's just they might shift some of the future capacity or resources or whatever the case to austin to capitalize on this inflation reduction act so to anyone out there saying that the giga berlin 4680 factory is just going to be shut down in an empty warehouse please stop saying that on that note i believe it was reuters who came up with this article saying that the german minister responded saying he wasn't aware of tesla's plan changes to shift some of the attention to gig austin my response would be well of course he isn't robert hayback german's economy minister said he has no information about this new change when asked if he knew anything about this change to gigger berlin battery plans he said no i don't he's really been focused on ukraine so i haven't really looked into that but as you know and maybe remember tesla said they didn't want to have state aid so in a way this is private business i have no deeper information right now not only that but this new memo from tesla management to the team just happened a matter of two days ago so it would make sense that the german economic minister doesn't yet know next up in terms of the non-tesla supercharger pilot iceland has been added to the list you can pause the screen if you'd like but here's the updated list of where this pilot is live just a fun fact from the government of iceland about 85 percent of the total primary energy supply in iceland is derived from domestically produced renewable energy in 2016 a little outdated geothermal was around 65 of the primary energy hydropower was 20 and the share of fossil fuels mainly oil was 15 here we have a tesla owner suing the company basically claiming tesla has advertised falsely when it comes to autopilot and fsd a complaint we have heard many times before from different parties now look i'll be the first person to tell you that over the last six or so years i definitely wish elon would have just kept his mouth shut when it comes to timelines for fsd and full self driving and some of the other comments he's made over the years that said i'm pretty confident tesla has its eyes dotted and t's crossed when it comes to a legal standpoint defending itself with the fine print at the same time though there were many claims made by elon over the last six or so years that fsd was right around the corner potentially leading people to expect something that never was actually delivered i'm not a lawyer so i have no idea how this will play out but that's that on that note elon said 10.69.2.1 coming out in a few days with additional polish 10.69.3 will come out shortly after ai day which is september 30th and more excitingly elon then said the beta is expanding to safety scores above 80 after 10.69.2.1 so this could be a version of that wide release to north america where many new users get fsd for the first time and as you can see james pointing out that could be tesla recognizing some of that deferred revenue for these features being delivered here we have the porsche ipo seemingly still on track but they are looking to release 911 million shares in a nod to the porsche 911 half will be preferred shares that will actually be listed and the other half will be common shares porsche is still confident about reaching a 70 to 80 billion euro valuation which is about the same in u.s dollars giga berlin is set to launch a train shuttle for employees sometime early next year yes tesla plans to pay for this on its own maybe somewhat of an update for employment at giger berlin but it's unofficial sources in the neighborhood of 6 000 employees but this train will run from urchiner to get berlin and back making the trip 40 times a day looks like we're going to have another situation of tesla submitting documents for the modernization and expansion of the route and the installation of a new station that will undoubtedly need to be reviewed and probably voted on and then approved all of that but theoretically this train could start running in march to april 2023 you may recall that partnership between hertz and uber where hertz is going to allow uber drivers to rent some of these evs from hertz well this program is now expanding into canada specifically vancouver in british columbia and here's a list of new cities for the latest rollout of this program in the states those cities will be added to this list of the current cities where this program is available and this gives riders the option to get into a tesla poll star or a machi next up we have starlink offering a new high performance dish that will cost twenty five hundred dollars this compared to the regular dish still sitting at 5.99 however now with this new high performance dish it'll have the same monthly rate at 110 dollars per month this new package will be for regular residential customers not just businesses or enterprises and it's supposed to perform better in hot cold and rainy conditions but there are no guarantees for performance improvements the high performance dish can see 35 percent more sky allowing it to connect to more satellites and better serve users with atypical installations zooming in so you can see the main benefits improved weather resistance better performance in the snow and of course better visibility of the satellites and it does say download speeds are typically three times better at over 95 degrees fahrenheit and for performance in the cold 1.7 times better snow melt capability in terms of inches per hour on this one you guys know i don't do politics but to still not give credit to tesla at all for leading this charge and really making this happen it's just very sad to see here we have joe justice who used to work at tesla and was a big part of the agile manufacturing he's done many great interviews on youtube i'd encourage you to watch them he's now joining cyber lander the company making the attachment to make cyber truck more livable and here's a tweet from martin to set the stage for this outro video hope you all have an awesome but fast forward two years the world has changed dramatically not only has their capitalization change right bankruptcy is totally off the table but two things have dramatically changed number one the world is moving now wholesale wholesale both for geopolitical realities and for energy realities in the direction of electrification um we're only eight percent penetration globally of electric cars that eight percent penetration is going to expand probably at a keger of 30 to 40 percent over the next five to 10 years global governments are now all behind this doing the things necessary whether it's charging stations whether it's new investments in in in battery technologies battery mining the inflation reduction act while horrifically named as a piece of legislation is a really potent piece of legislation just for further development and energy storage and electrification and when you look at tesla they have 30 percent margins their their competitors are running 10 at best and i think they have a compounding advantage in the world so while we expect their share will stay at around 15 as we move forward that's 15 percent a massively growing market and we think they're going to be a much larger percentage of the profit pool in electric v vehicles in energy storage etc and so much like apple represents a huge portion of the profit pool and a smaller share of actual units sold we think tesla is following that playbook um and you know they built a company that that that frankly is extending its moat and extending its lead uh versus the oems who are saddled with a bunch of ice legacy you
Comments 0