저자: MikeJones · 외국인
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2023년 투자 전략 영상으로, 강세장·약세장 통계 비교와 기술적 지표를 설명하나 특정 종목·자산의 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 없음. 과거 강세장·약세장 통계: 한 차트는 1926년 이후 강세장 평균 8.9년·누적수익 468%, 약세장 평균 1.4년·손실 -41%를 제시. 다른 차트는 1942년 이후 기준으로 강세장 4.5년·155%, 약세장 11.1개월·-31.7%로 차이가 큼. 발언자는 차트 기간 선택과 대폭락 제외 등 산정 방식에 따라 수치가 크게 달라진다고 지적하며, 강세장이 대체로 더 길다는 점은 공통이라고 설명. 기술적 지표: 주간 200주 이동평균선 이탈이 중요한 약세 신호이며, 이탈 후 재테스트 실패 시 추가 하락 가능성을 언급. 50주·100주 이동평균선 교차와 100주선 기울기 변화도 주목할 지표로 제시. 밸류에이션: 메타(META)를 예로 들어 애널리스트 적정주가 범위가 118~247달러 등으로 매우 넓다고 설명하며, 목표가는 틀릴 가능성이 높다고 강조. 차트상 지지선(2015년 수준 등)을 활용해 최악의 시나리오를 52~55달러로 추정. 리스크: 기업 부채 만기와 고금리 장기화가 실적 악화로 이어질 수 있으며, 약세장에서 고부채 기업이 특히 타격을 받는다고 경고. 투자 원칙: 쉽게 설명할 수 없는 기업은 투자하지 말 것, 빅머니(워런 버핏, 레이 달리오, 블랙록 등)의 자금 흐름 추적, 공포 시 매수 기질의 중요성 강조. 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측이나 출연자 추가 전망은 없음.
다듬은 글
hey guys Mike here so happy 2023 I hope everybody had a great New Years and stuff and thought yeah what better way to kick off the new year when talking about stuff that we need to be doing this year things we need to be watching out for this year and I specifically am really doing this for people if you're out there working full-time you got a spouse kid you're going to College full-time whatever it is right a lot of obligations and you just don't have time to be looking at 20 different uh indicators and this that and the other I'm going to give you a couple that you have to watch out for because it will absolutely tell you where this Market's head okay I'm gonna give you something else to be looking out for as you're doing your valuations because there's many ways to do it and I'm going to show you how tough it is to actually do a evaluation especially in this market right here and then I'll give you a little bonus at the end as well something to look out for as an indicator not as much indicators it is just something that works really well I've done a detailed members video on this so they know all about this but I'm telling you it's a great thing to use but I'm gonna start off with something when you're putting these videos together sometimes you end up discovering something accidentally so you come across a chart so I'm going to show you something that puts things in real perspective right looking at historical patterns and charts and things and data that people will come up with and they'll say oh this about bull markets and bear marks right so I'm gonna show you two different charts they're just they're covering the same thing bull markets and bear markets but one that's broken down totally different and watch what it does to the numbers and so let's get into it this is a jam-packed video I'm gonna try to keep it as short as possible okay and so this right here is the history of U.S bearing bull market since 1926.
make sure you pay attention to that huge drop right there in the 30s down almost 85 percent but as you can see on this chart with this data the average bull market period lasted 8.9 years and make sure you pay attention to this number with an average cumulative Total return of 468 the average bear Market period however lasted 1.4 years with an average cumulative loss of negative 41 percent so of course bear markets last a whole lot longer than bull markets and so when we go through this right here just look at how much returns you were getting coming out of that huge drop in the 40s to the 60s right then we looked at the 80s and 2000s like still up there but decreased and they only looked from 2000 2010 what do you see decreased even more is when I look at this and this wasn't the plan when I pulled this chart up but when I look at this like it doesn't look like those returns over the years or insteadly just declining and they sure don't seem to be lasting as long now let's go over this chart done by a different company this one takes it from 1942 and the way they break it down they say the average bull market period lasts is four and a half years and the average queuing of total returns 155 percent so that is a huge huge difference from 468 to 155 from 8.9 years to 4.4 years and then the average bear Market period last is 11.1 months with an average drop of 31.7 now what did they do differently in this one you notice that big drop in the 30s is not in here because it started in 1942.
what else we notice they actually put in 2020 and then now the 2022 drops so this isn't the most updated information but what else they did though they broke down some of those larger bear markets because there were such huge moves up during the bear Market our huge moves down during the bull markets that they consider that a bull and a bear because we actually need to actually go up and Google what is a bull market what is it bear Market you'll get a bunch of different definitions okay and in a way I kind of like what they did but the big thing like what they did was taking out the huge crash of 84 percent because when you get a huge crash of 84 percent and then I'm just a massive bull market up it's going to throw those numbers off dramatically right and we've never had a drop since they were close to that and so that's one thing and also including the most recent data as well but then breaking down certain bull markets like that if it was a 20 run up they included if 20 run down they include that as well you know kind of excuse your numbers right but it drops them way down to me and puts them in more realistic expectations okay and so what you need to take away from that is one if you look at either chart what happens the stock market goes up the majority of the time right that's what it wants to do that's what it does the bull markets last a lot longer than the bear markets but now a couple of things to watch out for especially in 2023 here if you're planning on averaging down whatever your plan may be and this is important it's so easy to do this so if you're working full time you've got kids and family and karate practice and school whatever you got going on you can do this it's not a problem you literally have plenty of things to go to you get a free account somewhere and put an indicator on this but watch your bigger time frames right this is the weekly this is a 200 weekly moving average you'll notice we already bounced off at once right and now we're heading back down towards it so what happens when you break the 200 moving average on the weekly well foreign we would definitely go down uh very fast and the reason I want to look at this look at how much the market respects the 200 right you come down here you'll see multiple times where it bounced off in this weekly time frame but you also have to understand when it breaks it that's why the data the macro has to backup what's going on but you'll see in 08 what happens we bounced off it multiple times came down tried to retest and fell like a crater then came back up in the recovery rejected off of it came back up and bounced right and so you know you go to a one you'll see the same thing came down bounced off of it didn't fall through then fell through good wait a minute retest can't hold and then here we go right and as people say you know tell you nothing good happens below the 200 right that's the same for read you see it bounce bounce bounce will go way back here bounce bounce bounce bounce bounce right and then you get into these other bear markets where it comes down balances doesn't go through goes through tries to retest fail and use that's what you're waiting on if it goes through is to wait for it to come back up to retest and that's what you're going to be looking for you can see it right there again bounce bounce bounce follow through retest reject it down we go and this will trigger all kinds of algorithms for sure and another one to look at real quicker here on the weekly is your 50 and your 100.
you know what's happened here the 50s crossed the 100 already but more importantly don't just look at the cross look at the slope of the moving averages right the 50 is sloping down and then but look at the hundred hadn't even started going down yet it's trying to flatten out and think of the these moving averages especially on bigger time frames not as speed boats but it's like oil freighters or something like that the ones that carry these big also containers they don't turn easily but when they do the momentum is hard to stop and you can see they rarely cross like I mean there was a slight cross right there but look at the slope right of these moving averages look at this is what I'm talking about you're getting these bear markets that looks very similar to what we're seeing right now where it hasn't that cross but when it does start sloping downward there is a ton of momentum going down in the market to make this happen and it's hard to stop and then we go back to one you see the exact same thing right again once it turns boom heading down that's the way it is and so look for that hundred on the weekly to start sloping over and that's what you're really looking for and if you're new here please hit that subscribe button really appreciate it and if you're getting out of this please hit the like and think about sharing the video guys now we get to what are you supposed to be doing by now or if you haven't done it start doing it is your list of stocks you want to buy you know that's what you got to start doing right if you haven't done it already and then what do you need you need to figure out what price you're coming in at well how are we going to do that right and say before you even do that part this is the best advice I've ever heard in seven seconds if you don't understand a company if you can't explain it to a 10 year old in two minutes or less if yes don't own it and you know what that's probably the most important and it's this right here they buy a stock and they think of it goes up it's wonderful and if it goes down it's bad we think just the opposite when it goes down we love it because we'll buy more and if it goes up we can it kills us to buy more and that's why a lot of people don't average down the stocks they own because they literally have no idea what they're investing in they heard some kind of elevator talk about it or a guy on YouTube and they went on board and they had no clue you know certain stocks I don't invest in I don't invest in Pharma stocks you can make a fortune I don't understand Farm stocks you know and plus there's just too much things are out of the company's control you know you fail one phase one trial whatever it is and boom it craters you never see it again right but I want to show you how difficult it is especially in this market because it's total guessworks what it is you're trying to value a company we're going to use meta for example because a lot of companies are what they've just been destroyed taken out of the Woodshed all this stuff right and so just to show you how difficult is I found 30 of these I got it down to four for you just to make it short but they're all the same and check this out real quick ticker symbol m-e-t-a so we can see here that we're getting a fair value for meta stock of about 109 per share if you're able to make 18 a year buying it at 247.
and on this one you can see the intrinsic value is worth 163 dollars and on this site you can see fair value around 164 15. and on that one they said 247 the range they had there from low to high was 118 to 247 they're going with 18 growth if you can get that other people are going difference there's so many different ways you can try to evaluate something and the range is just huge just on that one stop right and it's it's this way for a lot of them if you try to follow the analyst it is all over the place because what's going on you have no idea what these people's growth is going to be this year you have no idea what's going on in 2024 yeah no idea what the earnings none of it you don't want any of it right because we're in a bear Market we're just guessing right like in a bull market looking at you going okay I'm looking at it it would grow I'm growing status and everything's going downhill you're laying people off all this other stuff's happening they're cutting capex that affects everything right and so it's a total guess which is why you gotta not just have one target maybe it triggers but you got to have a range and understand that odds are your target probably incorrect right so it's probably going to go lower than what you actually think depending on how concerned you are so something a lot of people do which I like is using that but also just going to the Chart right because you know these things people who can invest off of the support levels and stuff right and if you look this is I put meta for a reason because it's been crushed like so many other companies and it's very hard looking at anything even a chart to try to figure out where to buy in because you can see it went down to 2015 levels before it finally started to take a pop right and it'll probably go back down if the market goes down but one thing a lot of people are doing like with Google for example and I've seen this and I've done this where you look at these ranges right you look at this channel that was in for years and you go okay what happens if 2020 never happened what happens happens we didn't shut down the world right and you say because you can see the bubble obviously it went up it popped well now it's back in that channel okay and so here I'll go okay here's this range from like 100 to 78 and then or where's the bottle what's the worst case scenario most likely you're sitting right there that coven low if you draw it across it goes back to 2017 so you have plenty of support there so the worst case scenario most likely unless the world comes to an end is around 52 to 55 dollars that can absolutely happen and so that's one thing to do but most importantly when you're doing these valuations this is what's different from a bull market when you're doing the valuations for yourself and looking at all this the one thing you got to pay more attention to than any other time and probably the last since 0-9 maybe is the debt of these companies and this is you know I'm just using that I'm saying go and buy meta I'm just saying here's meta for example got a lot of problems with the one thing I don't have a problem with is debt they have way more assets than debt short term and long term and what's really cool about them head and some of these other companies is they actually earn more interest on their money than they have to pay out in interest on their debt so that is a very good thing and even though there's one from zero percent or debt ratio to eight percent that is extremely extremely low and if you look at Microsoft Google same thing I mean they they're just they have so much cash and they earn so much interest on that versus what they're paying out but and the reason why it's so important is understand I'll put this more detail in the videos on keeping some shorter for you is the fact that you have companies taken out they took out trillions of dollars in debt for basically free I mean basically zero interest rate or close to it right to use to expand well now sudden they're shrinking down that debt will come due do I have to be refinanced I think in 2023 we got a trillion uh 1.2 trillion 2024 and then a massive jump in 2025 but you know who knows that's that's 20 25 seems so far away but just understand that's important so if you're picking a company and it's just unloaded with debt and things really go south and we stay in this High interest rate environment for longer than people think those companies are going to be hurting on earnings okay that's just the way it is especially if they have to start issuing new debt to survive a real downfall right if we cross that 200 and stock the market just starts to really go down hard then those are the companies going to be suffering the most and so be very cognizant of that because I can guarantee you big money is and big money is the coach tells you want to ride not the guy in the elevator unless he happens to be a multi-multi-millionaire or something okay and that's another thing I'm gonna be putting out and really doing more research on is a video I don't know if a week or every two weeks whatever it is on where big money is going and start keeping it in a spreadsheet you know where is Warren Buffett going where's Ray dalio where is uh you know BlackRock all these big institutions where is their money going to and then see if there's an overlap between all of them right because just think about before oil stocks went through the roof right you can guarantee there's a whole lot of overlap and big money going into those stocks you just saw Buffett get into it all these other companies driving it up we didn't travel stocks to all the new house people were just riding the coattails right they saw it and said here we go that's why you see a shift and so that's why you have to start doing that because that's that's who's going to pick the new winners right out of this out of every bear Market there are new winners it's the way it is right the Old Guard tends to retire sometimes and and new companies take over because those big money companies they're not looking at Amazon right now they're looking at who who's the next e-commerce giant that can take over and have more growth they may not look as impressive but they can get a lot more growth than an Amazon things like that right who's the next Google who's the next Microsoft that kind of stuff and they're a lot riskier but you got to look at where big money is putting their their well actually it's your money they're putting out there but what they're risking there okay and so the last thing I'll leave you with and if you've never seen this before I'll tell you this when you go to the site I don't use how the site says use it I just go strictly off the chart all right and the members know what this is I've done a detailed video on this showing how accurate this has been in the past and you can do this yourself and it's this green index in particular I like to use right and I go off this chart right there and if you just go through here and you look at those bottoms anytime it's less than 10 especially if it gets below five percent you better start looking to spend some money and I challenge you to pull up an s p chart pull up this chart and just go through every time it's below 10 or every time it's over really 75 75 to 80 percent what happens and you'll be shot and I use it with other indicators of course I don't even just one but even if you use just this one you're going to be surprised when you do your research and look that one up it's very easy to find and it there's again sayings that stand the test of time and this is right now by using that this is why Warren Buffett's where he's at if you have a temperament that when others are fearful you're going to get scared to yourself you know you are not going to make a lot of money in Securities over time in all probability and that's the truth it's the hardest thing to do I mean for me too it's the hardest thing to do man you see everybody running for the exits it's hard not to run with them right I mean it really truly is and so I'll start coming out with different videos let me know in the comments with other videos you'd like to see as well and um hope you got some out of it I hope you have a great 2023 and I will see you tomorrow foreign
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