저자: KaranGurnani · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 공매도 잔고(short interest)가 높은 저평가 종목을 역발상으로 노리는 '중간기간 딥밸류 투자'를 소개하는 영상이다. [투자 철학] 가치투자의 핵심은 시장의 비합리성을 이용해 저평가 종목을 싸게 사는 것이다. 주가는 단기적으로 투표기계, 장기적으로 저울기계라는 그레이엄의 관점을 인용한다. [시장 비합리성] 조엘 그린블랫 인용: S&P500은 1997년 이후 두 배, 반토막, 두 배, 반토막 후 세 배를 반복했으며, 개별 종목 편차는 더 크다. 좋은 가치평가 작업을 하면 시장은 결국 동의한다고 주장. [핵심 지표] 공매도 잔고가 높은 종목을 찾는 것이 핵심. 공매도는 비합리적 비관의 반대이며, 현금이 부채보다 많고 중기 촉매가 있으면 파산 가능성이 낮다고 본다. [사례 및 성과] 게임스톱(1위), 베드배스앤비욘드, Nordstrom 등이 언급되었다. 2020년 공매도 상위 25개 동일가중 포트폴리오는 약 43% 수익, 3월 급락 구간 매수 시 140% 이상, 승률 80%라고 주장. 게임스톱은 4~5달러대에서 3배, 2021년 중반 40달러까지 가능하다는 시나리오를 제시. [리스크·원칙] 자기 역량범위(circle of competence) 내 종목만 선택, 확률을 지속 재평가. 최소 보유기간 설정, 수익은 실현하되 손실 종목은 분석 재검토 후 확신 있으면 보유. 실패를 전제로 한 접근이 필요하다고 강조. [출연자 전망] 공매도 잔고 높은 역발상 종목에서 초과수익이 가능하다는 입장. 특정 종목 매수 추천이 아니라 프레임워크 제시라고 명시.
다듬은 글
hi welcome back to the channel since you're watching this video i'm going to assume that you're somewhat familiar with what a stock being classified as deep value entails i'm assuming that we both agree that value investing is quite simply finding value and capitalizing on mispriced securities your goal and mine is to benefit from this mispricing in order to achieve a high rate of return with low risk something that goes against what a lot of the market preaches which is high risk and high return i'm going to explain to you the underlying ideology behind my approach which i like to call intermediate deep value investing so let's get into it let's start off with ramdev agarwal a well-known indian investor he has stated that there are three dimensions to value value in the mind of the buyer value in the mind of the seller and the true intrinsic value buyers buy a stock because they presume there to be more value than what the current market capitalization encompasses we sell a stock because we think it's not going to give us an adequate rate of return moving forward the true value of a company lies somewhere between the perceptions of the buyers and the sellers now the question is how do we find the stocks with the least discrepancy between the price that someone is willing to sell at and the value that we are willing to buy at we need cheap stocks and we need them at the margin of safety right the reason stock prices become too cheap or too expensive is largely due to irrationality it's irrational exuberance or depression charlie munger always suggests that it's a good idea to invert the problem so if the path to becoming wealthy in the stock market is through rationality inverting the problem means to figure out what the driver behind irrationality in the stock market is so how do exactly do we benefit from this emotional irrationality that is the question i want you to watch a short clip from joel greenblatt just so you're able to break down the logic behind the thought process before we really start breaking down the approach you know once a year in my class at columbia i at least for the last five six years somebody raises their hand and asked a question that goes something along the lines something like this hey joel congratulations you've been doing this for 35 years and you've had a nice record but now there are more computers there's more data there's more ability to crunch numbers and uh kind of isn't the party over for us isn't it just more hedge funds there's just a lot more competition isn't the party over for us so my students are generally second year mbas i'd say average age 27 or so so i just answer it this way i tell let's go back to when you learn how to read uh let's take a look at the most followed market in the world that would be the united states let's take a look at the most followed stocks within the most followed market in the world those would be the s p 500 stocks let's take a look at what's happened since you learned how to read so i tell them from 1997 uh when they were nine or ten uh to 2000 the s p 500 doubled from 2000 to 2002 it halved from 2002 to 2007 it doubled from 2007 to 2009 it have and from 2009 to today it's roughly tripled which is my way of uh telling them that people are still crazy that was just the last 17 years uh and i'm way understating the case uh because the s p 500 is an average of 500 stocks if you lift up the covers and look underneath what's going on there's huge dispersion of those 500 stocks between those at any particular time that are in favor and those that are out of favor and so there's a wild ride going underneath the covers if you look under the covers the wild ride of those 500 stocks at any particular time and that doubling and having doubling and having with the average of 500 stocks really smoothing the ride so there should be an opportunity and uh if you understand what stocks are and i uh guarantee my students first day of class i make a guarantee every year they walk in and i guarantee them this if they do good valuation work of a company i guarantee them the market will agree with them i just never tell them when could be a couple weeks could be two or three years but if they do good valuation work the market will agree with them stocks are not pieces of paper that bounce up and down and you put complicated ratios on like sharp ratios or certain ratios stocks are ownership shares of businesses that you are valuing and if so incline tried to buy at a discount so if you believe what ben graham said that this horizontal line is fair value and this wavy line around that horizontal line are stock prices and you have a disciplined process to buy perhaps more than your fair share when they're below the line and if so and clients sell or short more than your fair share when they're above the line the market is throwing us pitches all of the time uh the reason people don't outperform the market they're a behavioral problem there are agency problems but it's not because we're not getting those uh opportunities now we've all learned from graham that in the short term the market is a voting machine in the long term it's a weighing machine well what about the intermediate term is there a way to exploit the irrationality of the voting machine while benefiting from the wing machine i looked for commonality between stocks that performed the best within this intermediate term and found that there is one beautifully consistent theme short interest short interest is irrational exuberance inverted when someone decides to short a stock not only do they think that the stock is not going to get a good return in the future they believe that the stock price is going to be significantly lower the best scenario for someone who is a short seller is that the stock goes to zero the company basically just goes bankrupt look for the companies with the highest short interest if you're interested to find the cheapest stocks in the market because not only are apparently bad fundamentals priced in but the key factor of irrationality which is market sentiment is also heavily discounting the future prospects of this company it is very difficult for a company to go bankrupt if it has more cash than debt and if it has a major catalyst that's coming up in the intermediate term this was my thought when i was going when i was looking at gamestop which is number one on this list by the way if you are someone who tracks value investors your eyes are going to light up when you see this list here we have gamestop bed bath and beyond michael's company names we've seen in michael varies portfolio there are also companies such as nordstrom's heritage growth properties which may sound familiar if again you track value investors i'm not saying that these companies are good companies to buy i'm saying that these are companies that market participants want to see go down this is where contrarian thinking is really rewarded what i like to do is go through this list and pick out the companies that i think are within my own circle of competence then i just read about them and figure out what makes sense to me um what seems like value in my perception and then i just go for it if something is worth 50 but it's sitting at five that is where you as a contrarian value investor will be able to earn your return in aggregate if someone was to make like an equal weighted portfolio of the top 25 of these stocks that you see in the short interest the person would have earned around 43 percent in 2020.
this is with a blindly pick equally weighted portfolio accounting for all the winners and the losers including the march dip that we had this year if the person happened to make the same portfolio during the dip then the returns would be in excess of 140 with a win rate of 80 percent now if you're a big now don't just get impressed by the numbers here run the numbers by yourself because there are many ways that you can actually improve this return this list should serve as a hunting ground figure out whatever is in your circle of competence and take a nice big swing when you see an opportunity you just need maybe two or three of these to do extremely well for the rest of the year maybe even a few years actually when i first got into gamestop it was in the four to five dollar range i could actually just visualize the company being a 3x by the end of the year you know there are scenarios where i actually kind of see the company hitting maybe 40 dollars per share by mid 2021.
i'm only able to hold with conviction because it is in my circle of competence and i'm constantly reevaluating the probabilities of future outcomes this is just one of the frameworks that i use to find stocks to buy into your strategy has to be dynamic based on the type of portfolio that you're managing value investing is timeless but you have to be dynamic within that realm because all of value is perception you need to have strong beliefs but held loosely now i'm speaking from experience here uh doing that extra bit of work is worth it if you want to compound at anything above 25 annually even if you're wrong on say one out of four companies you're still going to have numbers that will alter your personal monetary net worth in a decade also one key piece of advice that i would give is that set a minimum holding period if the price action is in your favor it ties back to the quote at the beginning of the video selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watching the weeds what i'm trying to say is that this approach requires patience if you were wrong in your analysis and the price is telling you that you were wrong revisit your analysis to find holes in your judgment and if there aren't any holes that you can find then hold it with conviction it is an absolute requirement to be fallible in order to succeed when investing now if you were able to find the winners within this strategy well then your problem is to figure out how to take profits which is a good problem to have enjoy the beauty of the flowers but remember that flowers don't last long no matter how monetarily or emotionally invested you are in the company this stock doesn't know that you bought it if you've done your analysis correctly you should have already figured out when and how to exit before getting in now if you watch the video all the way till the end let me know what you think about this approach of intermediate deep value investing there is a lot that you could do to improve and adapt this approach for yourself i'm kind of just presenting this to you as a base that i like to use do share with me how you would adapt this for yourself and it might even be something that helps me out fine tune my own approach so yeah hope that you like this video and thank you for watching you
Comments 0