When are cyclical stocks like Porsche and Stellantis attractive? (Peter Lynch)

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경기순환주(cyclical)의 특성과 투자 위험을 설명한 영상이다. 핵심 결론: 경기순환주는 현재 PE가 낮아 보여도 향후 수요 사이클이 중요하며, 초보 투자자에게는 적합하지 않다. 경기순환주 개념: 미디어, 자동차, 석유가스 기업처럼 호황과 침체가 주기적으로 반복되는 기업이다. 현재 PE보다 2~3년 뒤 수요가 중요하다. 스텔란티스 사례: 순현금이 많고 최근 실적 기준 PE가 1~2 수준으로 추정되어 매력적으로 보인다는 언급이 있다. 다만 자동차 업종은 경기순환적이라 신중해야 한다. 포르쉐·VW 사례: 포르쉐 지분 가치를 반영하면 VW가 매우 싸 보일 수 있으나, 시장이 싸게 평가하는 이유가 순환성에 있다고 설명한다. 철강·해운 사례: 철강 기업은 PE 1~2에서 투자해도 철강 가격 변화에 따라 이익과 장부가치가 급변할 수 있다. 해운은 운임 변동이 커서 위험하다. 투자 조건: 경기순환주는 극단적으로 저평가되어야 리스크가 낮고, 사이클상 현재 위치를 알아야 한다. 이는 자신의 역량범위(circle of competence) 안에서만 가능하다. 비교: 코카콜라를 PE 25에 사도 장기적으로 큰 손실은 아니지만, 경기순환주를 사이클을 잘못 읽으면 큰 손실을 볼 수 있다. 분류 조언: 초보자는 slow growers, stalwarts, fast growers 세 범주에 집중하고, 경기순환주는 경험이 쌓인 뒤 고려하는 것이 좋다. 출연자 전망: 영상 내 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없고, 스텔란티스가 저평가 매력이 있다는 원칙적 언급만 있다.

다듬은 글

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01. okay so Quran that brings us to cyclicals and cyclicals I think it's pretty much like there some some years they have their businesses are strong and then other years demand for their products or Services goes down and it's a cycle and uh media companies come to mind auto companies come to mind to some extent oil and gas companies come to mind and um the thing I wrote down there uh the current PE doesn't matter tomorrow matters um what what I mean by that is like when I go out there and I look at stalantis right now the company that makes Jeep and RAM they have I think they have a lot of net cash on their um on their books and if you look at what they earn like in the last six months or last year and then you take away that cash even though they're going to use that to go into electrification probably but the point is you can make an argument they're somewhere close to like a PE of one or PE of two right now like right now and I've been somewhat tempted by that but I know the Auto industry is cyclical and I think we've seen this at some of us have seen this thing some of us might be familiar with Porsche and VW where if you account for the value of Porsche inside of ew VW might look extremely cheap like zero dollars or something like that but and one might ask themselves well why is the market pricing stalantis and uh VW so cheap it's because these cyclicals it doesn't matter if they're cheap today it matters what the demand for the cars they sell is going to be two years from now three years from now and kind of where we're at um in the cycle so Quran what do you what do you think of uh cyclicals and what do you what do you kind of look out there with a risk factor this is pretty much where peterlin says that a lot of the stock Pickers tend to get there you know then to lose money because they think that the citrical stocks are a lot like the strollers right so they hear these big names and they're like okay yeah these are Dependable businesses just price and accurately by the market if I get in this at the right time I can make a lot of money here uh not naturally like the valuation metrics can be very misleading like you've talked about and I also remember that Tom mentioning something like uh you know with citricals you should buy at Book value and then sell at the when the PE seems cheap like that's kind of the good time to kind of go with cyclical so these are not stocks that you can hold for the long term you kind of make your return exit when you think that you know the market is going to start pricing them in a rich way and then just get out yeah these are these are dangerous because you look at steel companies in the last couple years and you you think like okay they're at peas of like one or two and I can make back my money in one or two years and then figure out what to do then but then if demand for steel or the price of steel changes um I I was looking at shipping in the last year and I was briefly in that business but that business is so tough because the rates can change dramatically and that means our earnings go down a ton and not only that but the book value that you buy against the value of the ships themselves can change dramatically as the prices for the shipping uh come down so as far as cyclical goes like I don't I'm not going to find myself in them a lot but I think there's definitely opportunities there but man you two things have to be in place one they have to be extremely cheap uh to lower the risk and then two you've got to know where you're at in the cycle and that comes down to circle of competence and if you don't know where you're at in the cycle you can really get into trouble because like with the stall works if I buy uh Coca-Cola at a PE of 25 instead of a PE of 19.

02. I'm not going to get in that much trouble like over the long run they'll kind of grow out of that and even in the short run I'm not going to lose that much money but you really can get uh in trouble with with the cyclical so that was my my main takeaway from that section was just like remembering how kind of risky they are if you don't know what you're doing and it's definitely not for the new investors someone who's just starting out like best to focus on the first three categories you got your slow Growers Star Wars and fast Growers you can make like plenty of money over there cyclicals like once you're a bit more experienced a little more seasoned maybe you can get into that at that point foreign