저자: KaranGurnani · 외국인
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결론: 2020년 빌 애크먼의 PSH 투자는 2000년대 워런 버핏의 버크셔 투자와 비슷한 장기 가치투자 기회가 될 수 있다는 주장. 버크셔의 2000~2020년 수익률은 약 520%로 나스닥(약 152%)을 크게 앞섰고, 연환산 수익률은 9.55%대 대 4.75%대였다. 배당 재투자 시 1만 달러는 버크셔에서 약 6.2만 달러, 나스닥에서 약 2.5만 달러가 되었다는 설명. 가치투자는 현금흐름과 이익의 지속성에 초점을 둔 시대를 초월한 방법론이지만, 버크셔는 너무 커져서 과거처럼 고성장 소형 기회를 잡기 어렵다는 점을 언급. 애크먼은 Pershing Square를 통해 활동주의 투자로 가치를 창출해 왔고, 2020년 3월 신용부도스왑(CDS) 헤지로 약 2.7억(원문 기준 27억 대비 표기 혼재) 규모의 큰 수익을 내며 '역대 최고 트레이드'로 언급됨. 애크먼은 대형 SPAC(Pershing Square Tontine Holdings)을 설립했고, 이전에는 버거킹 상장을 추진해 연 약 15~18% 복리 성과를 냈다고 소개. PSH는 폐쇄형 펀드로 구조화되어 있으며 Lowe's, Restaurant Brands International, Chipotle, Agilent, Hilton, Starbucks, Howard Hughes 등에 집중 투자하고, NAV 대비 할인 거래 중. 애크먼은 보유 종목이 모두 저평가이며 장기 복리 성장이 가능하다고 언급. 영상은 PSH에 대한 장기(20년) 베팅이 2000년 버핏 투자와 유사할 수 있다는 견해를 제시하며, 두 포트폴리오 모두 현금흐름이 강하고 합리적 가격의 기업에 집중한다는 점을 공통점으로 꼽음. 다만 애크먼이 버핏의 수익률을 따라갈 수 있을지에 대해서는 의문이 제기될 수 있음을 열어둠. 출연자는 영상 자체에서 PSH의 장기 복리 전망을 낙관적으로 전달함.
다듬은 글
hello and welcome back to the channel let's go back 20 years to the 2000s when the first ipod was launched and apple had a market cap of approximately 4.8 billion dollars we were seeing articles such as this where investors were starting to question if warren buffett had lost his touch as he avoided investing in the trend of rising technology stocks does any of this sound familiar now we know that berkshire managed to outperform while most speculators got slaughtered during the tech bubble but i feel like a lot of people don't truly understand how much better the out performance was over 20 years from the 1st of january 2000 till 1st jan 2020 an investment in berkshire has returned approximately 520 percent compared to the nasdaq index return of around 152 over the same period looking at these figures on an annualized basis berkshire has delivered a return that was more than double the nasdaq on an average annual basis nine point five five percent versus four point seven five percent this is with dividends reinvested by the way a hypothetical investment of ten thousand dollars would have grown to just over sixty two thousand dollars with berkshire and approximately 25 300 when you invested in the nasdaq at that time the point i'm trying to make here is that value investing makes sense buffett's goal for berkshire hathaway has been to make it a financial fortress that would be able to protect its shareholders irrespective of market conditions buffett has admitted that the strategy would underperform in a market with irrational exuberance much like what we have seen in the financial markets over the last few years value investing actually is a timeless concept that focuses on cash flows and the durability of earnings that a business would reasonably generate for several years into the future and discounting that back at an appropriate discount rate however berkshire hathaway has gotten too large to capitalize on smaller opportunities and grow at higher rates like it did for the past few decades now this is where bill akman and pershing square come in the picture bill ackman rose to fame due to his publicly controversial position and feud with fellow activist investor carl ikan also this year bill ackman has been gaining a lot of traction in the media for executing what has been titled the best trade ever a quick summary for those who aren't familiar with this best trade ever is that in march pershing square had disclosed that they held credit default swaps similar to what we heard about in 2008 to hedge on u.s investment grade and high yield credit indices and the european investment grade credit index this hedge paid off as they were able to generate a payout of 2.7 billion on a payment of just 27 million dollars the gain had offset the losses in their equity portfolio experienced in march another reason ackman was being featured in the news was for creating the largest special purpose acquisition company or spa called pushing square taunting holdings if you want me to make a detailed video explaining the structure of pershing square taunting holdings do let me know in the comments below now this isn't the first time that ackman has set up a spark his previous attempt had been to bring burger king into public markets and that endeavor has compounded at roughly 15 to 18 since its inception bill ackman has clearly stated that moving forward his strategy would be to focus on businesses that he understands so in his circle of competence with strong cash flows and durable moats and it's in a quintessentially value focused methodology currently his investment holding company that's structured as a closed end fund pushing square holdings is listed under the ticker psh the company manages a concentrated portfolio in the following companies lowe's restaurant brands international chipotle mexican grill agilent technologies hilton starbucks howard use corporation the fund trades at a discount to the nav and in a recent interview with bloomberg ackman stated that in his opinion all the positions are undervalued and could continue to be long-term compounders if you go through the annual report you can find that pershing square also charges a management fee along with a performance fee that is subject to a high water mark now the reason that ackman opted to set up a closed end fund is to set up a permanent capital base in a traditional hedge fund structure he was always exposed to the risk of redemptions from investors with a closed end fund structure investors can opt in by buying shares of pershing square holdings and sell the shares to another buyer whenever they wish to opt out of the fund now in my opinion betting on ackman in 2020 for the next 20 years could be similar to an investor betting on buffett back in 2000 buffett was creative in his approach to using the float from his insurance business as leverage ackman is creative in his approach on using spax to generate value for his shareholders through activism you can draw similarities between both portfolios since they both focused on investing in companies with strong cash flows trading at reasonable prices that were in the circle of competence of the respective managers and relatively unrelated to whatever the trending stocks were at that particular time do let me know your feedback on this idea in the comments below whether you think it's interesting if you think that ackman might not be able to match buffett's returns or if you just think maybe value investing is boring do let me know your thoughts in the comments below also if you found the video interesting if you like the content then do hit like hit subscribe that really helps out the channel and as always thank you for watching you
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